Sandbagger is an overused word.

[zeg]

The way statistics work and the way the USGA calculates your handicap it is impossible to determine the probability of any individual golfer scoring better than or equal to a specific score knowing only their handicap. You can calculate the probability of the average likely hood of any individual in the group of all golfers scoring 8 strokes or better than their handicap. I think that is what "redlabel" did. While I didn't check the math, the answer looks about right as the probability of scoring 8 stokes or better than your handicap on any given round has got to be pretty low for the group of all golfers (e.g. not many golfers do that very often). But applying that to any specific golfer is probably inaccurate because the likely hood of any one of us scoring 8 strokes or better than our handicap can be different. But if you're a betting man I would bet $100 against anyone with an honest handicap of scoring 8 strokes or better than their handicap provided we made the same bet for the next 100 rounds and I would make a lot of money (better odds than Vegas). I would think that if we limit the set of golfers to those with handicaps of 25 or more it would be more probably that they would on any given round score 8 strokes or better than thier handicap. But on the other hand if we limited the set to golfers with single digit handicaps that probability would shrink some. So I don't think "redlabel" was trying to impugn your integrity with this calculation but just say when someone scores 8 strokes or better than their handicap it is an unlikely event.

You're right, but the problem I had was the USGA stats guy describing the statistics as correct for any "honest" handicaps. We seem to agree that there are going to be outliers, and not all of these will be dishonest. Sandbagging is (I'm led to believe) a significant issue, but it doesn't help to fan the flames by refusing to acknowledge the honest outliers from the stats.

[sean_miller]

Despite it being mentioned several times on this thread,

A 14 shooting 8 over par on a par 70 course rated at ~68 is net 4 under. That's like me shooting a 72 on that course. If I shot a 72 all the doubters could just F right off - I'd be so happy I wouldn't even hear them. Congrats!!