The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[newtogolf]

5 hc would make the top 80.

Top 80 of club championship?   I don't believe Dan was ever a real 5 handicap, he just played the part as one in an internet blog.

[Lihu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lihu

5 hc would make the top 80.

Top 80 of club championship?   I don't believe Dan was ever a real 5 handicap, he just played the part as one in an internet blog.

I know a lot of people agree with you, but not sure if for the same reasons? I'm pretty sure you also doubt a lot of other people as well, but that doesn't mean you are correct, right?

He beat the Australian golf TV show producer here , and I do know some 5 handicaps with pretty horrible looking swings. The only way to know for sure is to lose to one.

[Nosevi]

[QUOTE name="newtogolf" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3582#post_1205104"]   [QUOTE name="Lihu" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3570_30#post_1205103"] 5 hc would make the top 80.[/QUOTE] Top 80 of club championship? I don't believe Dan was ever a real 5 handicap , he just played the part as one in an internet blog. [/QUOTE] I know a lot of people agree with you, but not sure if for the same reasons? I'm pretty sure you also doubt a lot of other people as well, but that doesn't mean you are correct, right? He beat the Australian golf TV show producer [URL=http://thesandtrap.com/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/2340#post_1091531]here[/URL], and I do know some 5 handicaps with pretty horrible looking swings. The only way to know for sure is to lose to one.

Did he beat him? Just watched and didn't hear it mentioned. Maybe I just missed it :-) Fwiw I think Dan got to whatever he said he got to, got no reason to believe otherwise.

[Lihu]

[quote name="Lihu" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3570#post_1205136"][QUOTE name="newtogolf" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3582#post_1205104"]   [QUOTE name="Lihu" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3570_30#post_1205103"] 5 hc would make the top 80.[/QUOTE] Top 80 of club championship? I don't believe Dan was ever a real 5 handicap , he just played the part as one in an internet blog. [/QUOTE] I know a lot of people agree with you, but not sure if for the same reasons? I'm pretty sure you also doubt a lot of other people as well, but that doesn't mean you are correct, right? He beat the Australian golf TV show producer [URL=http://thesandtrap.com/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/2340#post_1091531]here[/URL], and I do know some 5 handicaps with pretty horrible looking swings. The only way to know for sure is to lose to one.

Did he beat him? Just watched and didn't hear it mentioned. Maybe I just missed it :-) Fwiw I think Dan got to whatever he said he got to, got no reason to believe otherwise.[/quote] I agree, I still think Dan broke par once, and his handicap was accurate. Although, it's probably a lot worse now, because his swing was not sustainable. That is, I think that he put too much stress on his body to make his swing?

[nevets88]

Can't tell if this is current. Anyone read Italian? http://giannidavico.it/campopratica/ Based on url it is: http://giannidavico.it/campopratica/2015/09/25/the-dan-plan-un-anno-dopo/

[Lihu]

Okay, maybe his handicap is current because he can't play golf.

[Nosevi]

Can't tell if this is current. Anyone read Italian? http://giannidavico.it/campopratica/ Based on url it is: http://giannidavico.it/campopratica/2015/09/25/the-dan-plan-un-anno-dopo/

Still getting his handicap wrong - he says 4.5 when it's actually 5.4. The interview is after the back injury and his handicap has been 5.4 since before it. Quite clearly just a typo. For goodness sake no one point it out to @Shorty or he'll be saying "I told you so!" again ........ :-)

[RandallT]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lihu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nosevi

Did he beat him? Just watched and didn't hear it mentioned. Maybe I just missed it

Fwiw I think Dan got to whatever he said he got to, got no reason to believe otherwise.

I agree, I still think Dan broke par once, and his handicap was accurate. Although, it's probably a lot worse now, because his swing was not sustainable. That is, I think that he put too much stress on his body to make his swing?

Forgetting handicap benchmarks for a second:

I think the Pebble Beach Pro-Am outing in February 2015 was a decent benchmark of where he was when his HCP was 3.6. Dan tweeted that he played well, and he gave a general sense of happiness with how the round went.

He shot 83 on Monday on what we estimated was 74.7/143 course (that's blue tees by their card- not that day's setup. Black tees are 75.5/145: http://www.pebblebeach.com/golf/pebble-beach-golf-links/yardage-and-ratings). Perhaps it was 75ish/145ish?

If you shot a 72 as a PGA player that week, you were generally just below the median score for that round at Pebble Beach. About 3 strokes better than the rating, interestingly.

We can all do our own estimated math on that, but that's a benchmark of sorts- somewhat apples to apples (same course setup, similar weather, assuming same tees, etc). He wants to play about the level of a PGA pro just making a cut. My conclusion was:

At that moment, I believe he was roughly in need of 11 strokes per round improvement to be ballpark where his goal was set. (his 83-approx cut of 72)

Quote:

Originally Posted by nevets88

Can't tell if this is current. Anyone read Italian?

http://giannidavico.it/campopratica/

Based on url it is:

http://giannidavico.it/campopratica/2015/09/25/the-dan-plan-un-anno-dopo/

Here's how Google Translate interprets some of it:

Quote:

@Nosevi but 4.5 Handicap is what he's saying now, according to above, unless Google translated the number wrong. Here's his GHIN history. A jump from 3.9 to 5.4, but never 4.5. Not sure why there's always confusion around this simple number. Golfers who track scores know their handicap. I'm calling you out as a non-golfer if you track your scores closely on GHIN, but don't know your handicap!

Quote:

The quote below shames the criticizers. This is a familiar tactic used against any critic. I should know, because I'm critical about everything, and I get this a lot.

Quote:

[Nosevi]

Tricky for Google translate to get that one wrong, @RandallT - it's written in numbers :-) Like the comparison to scores at Pebble and if you think of it it makes sense with him at a 5 handicap - 11 strokes off is plus 6 = PGA pro playing well that week and making the cut. All sort of works.

[newtogolf]

I know a lot of people agree with you, but not sure if for the same reasons? I'm pretty sure you also doubt a lot of other people as well, but that doesn't mean you are correct, right?

He beat the Australian golf TV show producer here, and I do know some 5 handicaps with pretty horrible looking swings. The only way to know for sure is to lose to one.

Fair point, a decent percentage of golfers are vanity cappers and sand baggers.  In Dan's case I won't question his integrity as much as I do his overall ability to play golf at a 4-5 handicap level given his performance in tournaments and other away courses.

I have some very good golfers in my club, they regularly shoot in the 70's and low 80's at our course but they've been members there for 15 years.  They take caddies with them every round who help find their balls and read their putts.  When they play at away courses without caddies their scores are typically much higher.  The know the nuances of our home course, where it's safe to hit, where it's not.  How the greens roll, etc.

To be a top amateur you have to be able to play any course near par under tournament conditions.  I don't see Dan being able to do either based on his posted scores when he's not playing his home course;

4/2015 - 77

4/2015 - 82

3/2015 - 83

3/2015 - 83

1/2015 - 87

1/2015 - 84

[MrFlipper]

Forgetting handicap benchmarks for a second:

I think the Pebble Beach Pro-Am outing in February 2015 was a decent benchmark of where he was when his HCP was 3.6. Dan tweeted that he played well, and he gave a general sense of happiness with how the round went.

He shot 83 on Monday on what we estimated was 74.7/143 course (that's blue tees by their card- not that day's setup. Black tees are 75.5/145: http://www.pebblebeach.com/golf/pebble-beach-golf-links/yardage-and-ratings). Perhaps it was 75ish/145ish?

I missed this. I try to avoid this thread but get sucked back somehow.

I have to call BS on Dan once again. Last time I played Pebble was 30 years ago, I shot 85 with a 4 handicap. Similar to Dan. I did NOT play well, there was NO general sense of happiness with how the round went. I expected to break 80 at worst. I don't throw clubs or anything but it was not fulfilling at all. It's still disappointing to me. This was Pebble flipping Beach. How many chances do you get to play there?

Yet Dan was happy with 83, and played well? Doesn't sound like any 3.6 index person I have ever known. Especially one with "pro" aspirations.

It strikes me that Dan is totally lacking in competitive spirit. He's just floating along. Maybe I don't get out much but I have never met a legit low handicapper with his lack of competitive spirit, or even any successful athlete at any level.

I gotta quit looking at this thread

[Lihu]

[QUOTE name="Lihu" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3570_30#post_1205136"]   I know a lot of people agree with you, but not sure if for the same reasons? I'm pretty sure you also doubt a lot of other people as well, but that doesn't mean you are correct, right? He beat the Australian golf TV show producer [URL=http://thesandtrap.com/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/2340#post_1091531]here[/URL], and I do know some 5 handicaps with pretty horrible looking swings. The only way to know for sure is to lose to one. [/QUOTE] Fair point, a decent percentage of golfers are vanity cappers and sand baggers.  In Dan's case I won't question his integrity as much as I do his overall ability to play golf at a 4-5 handicap level given his performance in tournaments and other away courses. I have some very good golfers in my club, they regularly shoot in the 70's and low 80's at our course but they've been members there for 15 years.  They take caddies with them every round who help find their balls and read their putts.  When they play at away courses without caddies their scores are typically much higher.  The know the nuances of our home course, where it's safe to hit, where it's not.  How the greens roll, etc. To be a top amateur you have to be able to play any course near par under tournament conditions.  I don't see Dan being able to do either based on his posted scores when he's not playing his home course; 4/2015 - 77 4/2015 - 82 3/2015 - 83 3/2015 - 83 1/2015 - 87 1/2015 - 84

No disagreement here. I think there are many more vanity caps because they give themselves "exceptions" for a missed tap in putt or a mulligan on a topped tee shot, etc. They're "honest" in the sense that they feel like they shouldn't have done that and if they counted it they could be considered sandbagging. Plus, it's usually off by a stroke or two. Usually, the big money pots are for individual scoring events where having a vanity biased handicap is more "honest" than the other way around. Even for team events, they're usually just not picked by "winning teams", but usually go out with other "vanity" caps for a fun day out. People who care too much about their team winning aren't that much to play with anyway. Thus, I can see why more people probably veer towards the vanity side of things rather than sandbagging. To be perfectly honest, most people don't actually know their true handicaps. . .only the obsessed ones who know and practice every single ROG to the letter. To Mr. Flipper, Dan shot 2 strokes better than you. Could't that potentially make the difference between a good day and a horrible one? Plus, you might just hate yourself in general? Dan's obviously the half full glass type. :-)

[Pretzel]

This is why Dan never got to a 5 or below:

Yet Dan was happy with 83, and played well? Doesn't sound like any 3.6 index person I have ever known. Especially one with "pro" aspirations.

I have never met a person with a true low single digit handicap who was happy to shoot in the 80's. Usually those are the days when it feels like everything is going wrong and you can't make a putt or hit a shot to save your live (relatively speaking, of course, compared to what would be the norm). If Dan was truly happy with his 83, I'd peg him at closer to an 8 or 9 handicap. That was similar to my handicap in my junior year of high school when I was happy with anything in the low 80's to high 70's.

[Nosevi]

[QUOTE name="Nosevi" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3582#post_1205152"] Fwiw I think Dan got to whatever he said he got to, got no reason to believe otherwise.[/QUOTE] This is why Dan never got to a 5 or below: [QUOTE name="MrFlipper" url="/t/45853/the-dan-plan-10-000-hours-to-become-a-pro-golfer-dan-mclaughlin/3582#post_1205243"] Yet Dan was happy with 83, and played well? Doesn't sound like any 3.6 index person I have ever known. Especially one with "pro" aspirations. [/QUOTE] I have never met a person with a true low single digit handicap who was happy to shoot in the 80's. Usually those are the days when it feels like everything is going wrong and you can't make a putt or hit a shot to save your live (relatively speaking, of course, compared to what would be the norm). If Dan was truly happy with his 83, I'd peg him at closer to an 8 or 9 handicap. That was similar to my handicap in my junior year of high school when I was happy with anything in the low 80's to high 70's.

I get your point - no, personally I wouldn't be "happy" shooting 83.

[DrvFrShow]

I missed this. I try to avoid this thread but get sucked back somehow.

I have to call BS on Dan once again. Last time I played Pebble was 30 years ago, I shot 85 with a 4 handicap. Similar to Dan. I did NOT play well, there was NO general sense of happiness with how the round went. I expected to break 80 at worst. I don't throw clubs or anything but it was not fulfilling at all. It's still disappointing to me. This was Pebble flipping Beach. How many chances do you get to play there?

Yet Dan was happy with 83, and played well? Doesn't sound like any 3.6 index person I have ever known. Especially one with "pro" aspirations.

It strikes me that Dan is totally lacking in competitive spirit. He's just floating along. Maybe I don't get out much but I have never met a legit low handicapper with his lack of competitive spirit, or even any successful athlete at any level.

I gotta quit looking at this thread

Not necessarily. This is a Pacific NW frame of mind. You have to remember that unlike in other parts of the nation, we don't get too excited about things up here. We're a pretty optimistic bunch despite the Grunge movement. One must also factor in that he never played Pebble Beach before, and it's a very tough course.

[Pretzel]

I know if I went to Pebble Beach and shot 79, 4 shots less than Dan (1 handicap for me versus a supposed 5), I would be pretty peeved at how I played. I would be happy that I got to play Pebble Beach, but I would not be pleased with my performance. That course is short, only 6800 yards for a par 72 from the tees he played, and the fairways aren't exceptionally narrow (I would call them about average). I play in tournaments where the yardage measures 7400 yards for a par 72 and not a single par 5 is reachable. Pebble beach has only 1 par 5 that isn't really that feasible to be reached (hole 14), but even that one has not much trouble near the green so it makes sense to go for it regardless and get yourself close.

I would be rather disappointed if I shot above a 75 or 76 at Pebble Beach. It's a short course that I can take advantage of on the par 5's, and the long par 3's don't bother me because I'm used to them being 200+ yards anyways.

[Lihu]

I know if I went to Pebble Beach and shot 79, 4 shots less than Dan (1 handicap for me versus a supposed 5), I would be pretty peeved at how I played. I would be happy that I got to play Pebble Beach, but I would not be pleased with my performance. That course is short, only 6800 yards for a par 72 from the tees he played, and the fairways aren't exceptionally narrow (I would call them about average). I play in tournaments where the yardage measures 7400 yards for a par 72 and not a single par 5 is reachable. Pebble beach has only 1 par 5 that isn't really that feasible to be reached (hole 14), but even that one has not much trouble near the green so it makes sense to go for it regardless and get yourself close.

I would be rather disappointed if I shot above a 75 or 76 at Pebble Beach. It's a short course that I can take advantage of on the par 5's, and the long par 3's don't bother me because I'm used to them being 200+ yards anyways.

From what I understand, Pebble beach is a pretty difficult course for reasons other than just length which is why it's got a 74.7/143 CR . If you shot a 79 the first time you played there, I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be beating yourself up. The US Open yardage is only 200 yards longer than the blues. Betting the greens were running 12+, so putting and sticking greens is probably pretty hard. . .

[Pretzel]

Sticking greens not so much, at least for me, since I have enough height and spin on my shots that I can hold firm and fast greens without issue. Putting only if you aren't used to playing on greens of that speed, then it takes a bit of adjustment. I personally putt better when the greens are faster, and my putts per round start to go up when the stimp measurement drops below 10 or 11, so I don't see that as something that would affect me too much.

I will concede that the course is likely difficult in other ways, but I would still be peeved if I shot above a 75 or 76. That would be me shooting the course rating plus my handicap at the course. The unfamiliar course thing doesn't phase me simply because I'm used to playing 12 different courses in two months in tournaments, so I've gotten good at mapping out strategies to follow at unfamiliar courses that allow me to play to my strengths and avoid exposing my weaknesses. I could be different than most in this regard.

I still contend that an 83 is on the high end of what a 5 handicap player should expect to shoot. Dan, on March 1 before the round at Pebble Beach, was listed as a handicap of 3.6. This would give him a course handicap, based on the slope, of 5. That means an expected score for Dan would be 79.7 strokes, or about an 80. This is reasonable, but you don't "play well" then shoot 3 strokes above what you would be expected to shoot 50% of the time on the course.

I guess my main problem here is that he had far too much optimism for playing what was admittedly a sub-standard round. If he truly played well in that round, with a differential of ~8.3, I don't see how that could lead to him coming close to a 3.6 handicap. It aligns with my theory that he was an 8-10 handicap player since he said he played well shooting in the low 80's, which is how I felt when I was about a 10 handicap.

Since he played well you can expect that the differential of 8.3 will be a little lower, or equal to, the average of the best 10 differentials in his last 20. This would give him a handicap of 8.5-8.6 if you assume his average of the best 10 was a differential of 9. This is a 5 stroke difference from his then reported handicap of 3.6. This leaves us with two likely truths:

1) Dan sucks at playing anywhere but his home course and lacks planning skills required to play varying courses well.

2) Dan is lying about his handicap in order to make it better fit his plan.

Dan is under financial pressure to say that his plan is succeeding, since nobody will contribute to what appears to be a lost cause, so I would tend to say that the latter is a more likely outcome. You can't lie about your scores when you're on television, but it's remarkably easy to do when you're alone entering the score from your round you played as a single - especially when your financial success potentially depends on it.