2012 Northern Trust Open Discussion Thread

[clubchamp]

Originally Posted by jamo

Normally I would disagree with you, but that pin was set up so that you could have laid up short and had a perfect angle from the fairway, yet if you were left, right, or over the green it would have been nearly impossible to get it close.

The mowed area just long of the green seemed to be the place that they were going for off the tee. I don't think laying back in the fairway would have been an easy shot being that you would still have almost zero margin for error.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by clubchamp

The mowed area just long of the green seemed to be the place that they were going for off the tee. I don't think laying back in the fairway would have been an easy shot being that you would still have almost zero margin for error.

This being corroborated by the fact that--according to the announcing team--nobody who laid up off the tee made birdie that day.

I still probably would have laid up, but apparently the stats don't prove it to be the better strategy.

Brandon

[jamo]

The mowed area just long of the green seemed to be the place that they were going for off the tee. I don't think laying back in the fairway would have been an easy shot being that you would still have almost zero margin for error.

I think we can agree that pretty much any shot came with zero margin for error. I guess with the driver they were trying to hit that spot you mentioned directly over the green, I'm saying that with a wood or long iron they could have hit for an equally meaty chunk of the fairway short of the green. EDIT: I just saw a better picture than the camera angle from the coverage. I didn't realize how horizontal the green was, which makes my comment pretty much moot for sunday's pin position.

[k-troop]

Originally Posted by mvmac

In case anyone was interested in what's in Haas's bag

http://blogs.golf.com/equipment/2012/02/winners-bag-bill-haas-titleist-northern-trust-open.html

Bill Haas is another guy who still carries a 2-iron, FWIW.

[k-troop]

I just noticed that on the above link it says he carries 3-PW.  However, in this month's golf digest, Haas confirms he still plays a 2-iron.  Quote from the article:  "Very few players still use a 2-iron, but I'm very confident with mine. I use it when I just want to hit the fairway or get the ball up near the green."

Read More http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-equipment/whats-in-my-bag/2012-03/photos-bill-haas#ixzz1mzZAQ7nr

[clubchamp]

Originally Posted by jamo

I think we can agree that pretty much any shot came with zero margin for error. I guess with the driver they were trying to hit that spot you mentioned directly over the green, I'm saying that with a wood or long iron they could have hit for an equally meaty chunk of the fairway short of the green.

EDIT: I just saw a better picture than the camera angle from the coverage. I didn't realize how horizontal the green was, which makes my comment pretty much moot for sunday's pin position.

Yeah I think you might have looked at the same pic I did when I made my comment about how to play the hole. I also agree that anywhere really didn't leave them with an easy shot but it seemed like the mowed area just long was the spot.

[zipazoid]

Originally Posted by clubchamp

The mowed area just long of the green seemed to be the place that they were going for off the tee. I don't think laying back in the fairway would have been an easy shot being that you would still have almost zero margin for error.

But at least you could spin something in there. If they hit iron off the tee they can leave themselves, say, 80 yards in. You can punch a SW with spin as opposed to what they were left with after hitting Driver - mega-flops with no spin.

I mean, either way it's a shot to a pin with no margin for error, so it becomes what kind of shot you want to hit to such a pin. I would prefer something I could spin.

[zeg]

Originally Posted by zipazoid

I mean, either way it's a shot to a pin with no margin for error, so it becomes what kind of shot you want to hit to such a pin. I would prefer something I could spin.

I see. Is that why they're paying you the big bucks? :-P

If the risks are equal, you might as well go for the reward. That, coupled with the general rule being "closer is better" is probably why they go for it. IIRC there is at least one thread on here with numbers that at least suggest that, in general, laying up to a distance is a losing strategy compared to getting as close as you can. While that doesn't directly apply if your close option is guaranteed to be a delicate flop, I'm inclined to think the guys out there know what they're doing...

[zipazoid]

Originally Posted by zeg

I see. Is that why they're paying you the big bucks? :-P

If the risks are equal, you might as well go for the reward. That, coupled with the general rule being "closer is better" is probably why they go for it. IIRC there is at least one thread on here with numbers that at least suggest that, in general, laying up to a distance is a losing strategy compared to getting as close as you can. While that doesn't directly apply if your close option is guaranteed to be a delicate flop, I'm inclined to think the guys out there know what they're doing...

Right. And look at the results from the three of them going for the green. Their 2nd shots were as follows -

Mickelson was left with an impossible (even for him) flop shot. He hit it in the bunker.

Bradley hit it to the fringe, 20 feet away.

Haas had to play sideways, hitting it to 40 feet.

Those are pretty crappy results for 2nd shots to a 310-yard par 4.

Even me, not playing for big bucks, can see that.

[clubchamp]

Originally Posted by zipazoid

But at least you could spin something in there. If they hit iron off the tee they can leave themselves, say, 80 yards in. You can punch a SW with spin as opposed to what they were left with after hitting Driver - mega-flops with no spin.

I mean, either way it's a shot to a pin with no margin for error, so it becomes what kind of shot you want to hit to such a pin. I would prefer something I could spin.

Yeah they were trying to get to an area where they could spin their chips which was the only way you're getting close to that pin. Hitting a punch SW from 80 yards puts you in the back bunker unless you hit the perfect shot which I'm not even sure would work. A punch SW is going to hop at least once so you'd have to hope it landed on the very front of the green one hop and checked hard. I just agree that it was more worth taking the risk off the tee than taking the risk from the second shot.

As for the playoff

Haas was to far left and played safe

Bradley wasn't in a terrible spot and played a decent shot

Phil was playing to win he had to have known he had no chance besides holing it, he could have played over towards Haas' ball which would have been playing for par and Phil can't do that

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by clubchamp

A punch SW is going to hop at least once so you'd have to hope it landed on the very front of the green one hop and checked hard.

Why do you say that?  There was plenty of green from front to back.

Brandon

[Ben]

Originally Posted by bplewis24

If you notice, he often takes a water bottle out of his bag after tee shots and approach shots.  They only showed it a few times, but I assume it happens often.  Anyway, he's a very good player and young, so I don't want to be too hard on him.  I'm just not sure what annoys me more--the spitting or the fidgeting?  I did find it funny that every other time he would start his fidget routine, one announcer would continually say, "he's into it ladies and gentlemen!  He's into it!"

Oh yeah, and I finally saw the full replay of the final playoff hole today (my recording cut off on the 1st playoff hole and I had to go online to see the highlights).  It was definitely anti-climactic for two reasons:

1) Haas didn't react too demonstrably after the winning putt; and

2) He won the tournament before his competitors even reached the green!  That has to be rare.

Brandon

Keegan still had a great look at birdie to tie. Plus, you gotta act like you've been there before right? 43' putt, center cup, eh, no biggie, happens all the time. No need for an over reaction, fist-pump frenzy, I say.

[clubchamp]

Originally Posted by bplewis24

Why do you say that?  There was plenty of green from front to back.

Brandon

Technically yes but if you are 80 yards back trying to get at the pin you have to go over the bunker which leaves little room to get at the pin. If there was plenty of green Mickelson would have been able to keep it on the green and Bradley's bunker shot would have been simple. I guess if you are saying from front left to back right yes there is a ton of green but it's all about the angle you give yourself.

[Ben]

Originally Posted by zipazoid

But at least you could spin something in there. If they hit iron off the tee they can leave themselves, say, 80 yards in. You can punch a SW with spin as opposed to what they were left with after hitting Driver - mega-flops with no spin.

I mean, either way it's a shot to a pin with no margin for error, so it becomes what kind of shot you want to hit to such a pin. I would prefer something I could spin.

I was at the event on Friday and spent a good amount of time near the 11th tee, directly behind the 10th green. The pin was in practically the same spot as Sunday but just a few paces farther to the back of the green. I saw one person layup to the green. I don't remember who it was, but he consequently didn't even hit the green. We all saw that green there, its no more than 15 paces from front to rear in that back section. Plus that green slopes from front to back, not your typical set-up. Those greens were playing awfully firm and fast. Laying back with a full SW type shot is asking to hit a spot about one, maybe two paces large on the very front edge. A tad short, and a high spinning shot may turn into a plugged shot in the bunker guarding the front. or a touch long and you could be in the bunker in the back. I don't know how it looked on TV, but those bunkers are crazy deep! particularly for a green that is so dang narrow. Its no wonder why hole 10 is widely considered one of the most challenging short par-4s on the PGA Tour.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by clubchamp

Technically yes but if you are 80 yards back trying to get at the pin you have to go over the bunker which leaves little room to get at the pin. If there was plenty of green Mickelson would have been able to keep it on the green and Bradley's bunker shot would have been simple. I guess if you are saying from front left to back right yes there is a ton of green but it's all about the angle you give yourself.

Yeah, you're right.  I forgot about the angle.  You would probably have to hit no less than 3 wood or your longest iron to actually get the proper angle to have the entire green to work with.

Brandon

[Tomboys]

Originally Posted by Ben

Keegan still had a great look at birdie to tie. Plus, you gotta act like you've been there before right? 43' putt, center cup, eh, no biggie, happens all the time. No need for an over reaction, fist-pump frenzy, I say.

Agreed.  And given that for his last win he took home $1.44M for the tourney and another $10M for the Fed Ex Cup, the $1.1188M check on the line for this last win was "just another day in the park".

[Clambake]

Originally Posted by Ben

I was at the event on Friday and spent a good amount of time near the 11th tee, directly behind the 10th green. The pin was in practically the same spot as Sunday but just a few paces farther to the back of the green. I saw one person layup to the green. I don't remember who it was, but he consequently didn't even hit the green. We all saw that green there, its no more than 15 paces from front to rear in that back section. Plus that green slopes from front to back, not your typical set-up. Those greens were playing awfully firm and fast. Laying back with a full SW type shot is asking to hit a spot about one, maybe two paces large on the very front edge. A tad short, and a high spinning shot may turn into a plugged shot in the bunker guarding the front. or a touch long and you could be in the bunker in the back. I don't know how it looked on TV, but those bunkers are crazy deep! particularly for a green that is so dang narrow. Its no wonder why hole 10 is widely considered one of the most challenging short par-4s on the PGA Tour.

Ben described this hole very well.    I had the privilege of playing Riviera years ago, and to this day I still think #10 is the hardest golf hole I've ever played, even when they had conditions set up for members and not for a Tour event.    The tee shot appears to give you a lot of room to lay up between the sets of bunkers, but after hitting it and then seeing your second shot you realize that there is a very tiny area in the fairway that gives you any shot at that pin position.     A few yards too far to the right and you've got no room to work with whatsoever.   A few yards to the left and you're in the same condition.     Even if you're in the perfect spot, you are looking at this little sliver of green in front of you with just no room for error left to right.    And then you realize the green slopes away from you, meaning that you can't fly it into the hole and have it stop.   You have to hit short and let it run up to the hole, and the only way to do this is to be in the exact perfect spot in the fairway and have exceptional control of your spin.      And as Ben says, if you miss just a little left or right you're in the bunker and they're deep, leaving you a tough bunker shot onto something the size of a coffee table.      Laying up off the tee is in no way a certain par.     It is just simply a tough, tough hole that doesn't leave much room in the risk/reward spectrum.    I'm astounded someone could birdie it in the easiest of circumstances, let alone under tournament pressure in a playoff.