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TN94z

Tiger is never coming back

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I found an article by Shane Bacon in which he was reflecting on Tiger's performance during the US Open and the expectations of Tiger leading up to the tournament.  He stated that:

Quote:

You know the story that transpired over the next two rounds. Tiger was sloppy in his Saturday round and not much better on Sunday, shooting rounds of 75-73 to finish T-21, his second worst ever at the U.S. Open as a professional.

And people wanted to know what went wrong. What happened? How in the world could Tiger, coming off a win, play this badly when he was in contention at a major championship, the place he used to be as comfortable as Johnny Depp in a fedora.

The reason, although tough to grasp, is simple; Tiger is never going to be back. Ever.

Those are pretty strong words for, arguably, the greatest golfer of all time.  He has shown glimpses of brilliance and his swing looks to be coming along quite nicely, but the dominance is not there as it used to be.  Now personally, I think it's a combination of Tiger's past situation mixed with swing changes and topped off with the field just being better and more confident playing Tiger now.   I agree with Bacon's quote here:

Quote:
We look at golf now and there isn't anyone dominant. Rory McIlroy will be that person for a few months and then Luke Donald and then Bubba Watson and then Martin Kaymer. It's a revolving door of players that are all talented, but equally talented. Tiger is just one of those guys now.

I don't know if we will ever get to witness someone dominate like we did in Tiger's era, but if that person shows up and dominates the talent that is out there now.....it sure would be fun to watch!!

So what do you think?  Is Tiger just one of the guys now or does he still have "Tiger" in him?

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I wouldn't bet against a 36-year-old golfer with 14 majors.

If Mr. Bacon is basing this on Tiger's weekend play at Olympic - two rounds - then he is making far too sweeping of a conclusion on far too small of a sample set. So, in other words, the two wins he's had so far this year means nothing? The fact he had the lead at the Open at one point on Friday means nothing? This is totally based on 75-73 on the weekend, the he's never going to win another major?

That's like looking at a thunderstorm & saying it will never be sunny again.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by zipazoid View Post

I wouldn't bet against a 36-year-old golfer with 14 majors.

If Mr. Bacon is basing this on Tiger's weekend play at Olympic - two rounds - then he is making far too sweeping of a conclusion on far too small of a sample set. So, in other words, the two wins he's had so far this year means nothing? The fact he had the lead at the Open at one point on Friday means nothing? This is totally based on 75-73 on the weekend, the he's never going to win another major?

That's like looking at a thunderstorm & saying it will never be sunny again.

Well, deeper in the article he explained his thinking a little:

Quote:
And if you still can't buy the fact that Tiger just isn't going to be "back" in those terms, look at his finishes this year. After each win, Tiger has failed to finish inside the top-20. He has only broke 70 once in eight major championship rounds this season, and he has accumulated his worst finish at the Masters as a professional and second worst finish as a pro at the U.S. Open in 2012.

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The question is whether Tiger will ever be the same tremendously dominant player he was 4-5 years ago and I think the answer is no. He's older for one and the competition is better. But if anyone thinks that he won't win a few more majors or possibly beat Jack's record than they are underestimating Woods' talent and most of all will to be the best. Right now he's not far from being the best player in the world and when he's on, he's quite a bit better than anyone else.

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Okay, so his sample set is expanded to his performances this year, ignoring the two wins but instead focusing on how he did after them.

Going into this year Tiger hadn't won an official tour event since 2009. This year he's won two (so far). So this guy assumes he won't win another major? Doesn't add up.

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Honestly I think Tiger is hitting the ball great for the most part, but I can't see him dominating the way he used to.  He will continue to be one of the top players, may win another major or 2, but the days of him outclassing everyone else are over.

If you look at his stats, there has been a rather large dropoff in some key categories.  In terms of driving distance, he's lost about 15 yards since his prime.  Now much of that might be due to using a lot of shorter clubs off the tee in order to increase his fairway percentage (and his accuracy has improved quite a bit). But length is clearly no longer an advantage for Tiger against the field.

But a bigger dropoff has been in his birdie or better percentage on Par 4s and especially Par 5s.  In 2006 he led the tour in both categories (21.79% on Par 4s, 57.14% on Par 5s).  So far in 2012, he is ranked 97th on Par 4s (14.45%) and 32nd on Par 5s (46.09%).  Tiger used to eat the longer holes for lunch.  Nowadays he is decidedly average.  I think a large part of this is his shorter length off the tee.  He is a great iron player but he is leaving himself very long approach shots and that makes getting birdies/eagles tough.

Tiger has always been an erratic driver of the ball but I think his new cautious approach off the tee is hurting him.  He dominated by outplaying everyone else on the long Par4s and Par 5s.  You can't do that hitting 3-irons off the tee.

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Originally Posted by TN94z

I don't know if we will ever get to witness someone dominate like we did in Tiger's era, but if that person shows up and dominates the talent that is out there now.....it sure would be fun to watch!!

The same thing was said in the early 90's prior to Tiger.  It was beleived that Jack could never have won all thoses majors with the deep fields made up of such talented guys like Fred Couples and Davis Love III.  Then Tiger came along and it was said he had no competition.  Now were back to deep fields again--so deep that no one may ever dominate again--I don't buy it.

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I didn`t read the whole article, but basically agree.

Tiger`s best year was in 2000 which was part of a 10 year stretch from 1999 to 2008 where he dominated.  I don`t think Tiger will have another year like 2000 (into 2001 where he won 4 majors in a row) or 10 year stretch like that, but he is certainly in the mix for world #1 going forward and might win a few more majors.

I think Tiger might be putting more pressure on himself at the majors and while you can`t rule it out, it would be very impressive if he was able to tie or exceed Nicklaus`s 18.  IMO, it is more likely for Tiger to have an extended stretch (at least 52 weeks) at #1 but I doubt that he will have double the OWGR points "average" of the #2 player like he did in some past years.

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Originally Posted by stoverny

Honestly I think Tiger is hitting the ball great for the most part, but I can't see him dominating the way he used to.  He will continue to be one of the top players, may win another major or 2, but the days of him outclassing everyone else are over.

If you look at his stats, there has been a rather large dropoff in some key categories.  In terms of driving distance, he's lost about 15 yards since his prime.  Now much of that might be due to using a lot of shorter clubs off the tee in order to increase his fairway percentage (and his accuracy has improved quite a bit). But length is clearly no longer an advantage for Tiger against the field.

But a bigger dropoff has been in his birdie or better percentage on Par 4s and especially Par 5s.  In 2006 he led the tour in both categories (21.79% on Par 4s, 57.14% on Par 5s).  So far in 2012, he is ranked 97th on Par 4s (14.45%) and 32nd on Par 5s (46.09%).  Tiger used to eat the longer holes for lunch.  Nowadays he is decidedly average.  I think a large part of this is his shorter length off the tee.  He is a great iron player but he is leaving himself very long approach shots and that makes getting birdies/eagles tough.

Tiger has always been an erratic driver of the ball but I think his new cautious approach off the tee is hurting him.  He dominated by outplaying everyone else on the long Par4s and Par 5s.  You can't do that hitting 3-irons off the tee.

I think a lot of the birdie or better % is a result of his putting issues as much as anything too.  I just think he is playing smarter now and not necessarily "cautious."   I think that is just until he gets the swing figured out.  His driving is better with the new swing just because it seems his misses are nowhere near what they used to be.  He still has the extra gear to get the driver distance down but you have to weigh out the percentages there.  He for sure doesn't have the distance "advantage" anymore with today's bombers.  I think it's as much the swing that's producing the longer proximity to the hole shots than his distance off the tee.

Personally, I just feel that he has been working on swing changes for some time now and it will eventually lead to concentrating more on distances and accuracy and then those %s will get back to what they were.

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If you look at his stats, there has been a rather large dropoff in some key categories.  In terms of driving distance, he's lost about 15 yards since his prime.

Tiger hasn't lost 15 yards since his prime and he's still ranked first in total driving. I'm not saying he'll dominate like he did in 2000 again (it's unfair, I don't think anyone is likely to do that again), but if winning a major or two every year and three to five PGA Tour events each year is dominating, I think Tiger can get back to that and sustain it for a little while. Will he? I don't know. Is it 50% or better odds? I don't know. But he can, and I'd put it at more than a 10% chance.

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It's absolutely beyond me how people can think that Tiger will get no better than he is now, especially after seeing the likes of Furyk, Toms, and Els play so well last week. He has come from #52 to #4 in the world rankings in the last nine months. He has gone from terrible off the tee to #1 in total driving. And he's just barely past the stage where he is rehearsing swing thoughts before every shot. Does it not seem likely that he still has a way to go in getting completely comfortable with his new swing? Does it not seem likely that as his driving is now pretty close to where he wants it, he can afford to spend more time tightening up his short game? He was 2 for 11 in sand saves last week. If he had been 10 for 11, he would have won. I realize that every player leaves shots out there, but not every player has proven, time and again, that he has the physical and mental tools to win consistently. I thought that Rory might give him some trouble, but now that Rory's game looks as fragile as everyone else's, I don't see anybody who can keep Tiger from dominating again. He may not make everything he looks at again, but he doesn't need to. All he needs to do is to pick up a couple of shots a round in his short game, and anybody can see that they are there. I figure he'll have his short game tightened up by the end of the summer, and from then on he'll be good enough to go back to his average clip of five wins a year, and one major a year. And if he gets his putting stroke all the way back, I don't see anybody to stop him from going back to 8 or 9 wins a year, and a couple or three majors per year.

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Originally Posted by brocks

I don't see anybody to stop him from going back to 8 or 9 wins a year, and a couple or three majors per year.

There is one guy who can stop him.  His name is Tiger.

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Anyone else tired of these threads by now? There will always be someone saying that Tiger won't be back, even if he wins 5 more majors and beat Jack.

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Originally Posted by Zeph

Anyone else tired of these threads by now? There will always be someone saying that Tiger won't be back, even if he wins 5 more majors and beat Jack.

News is news and Tiger will always be at the top.  Whether it's the dislike or like of him, articles about him will not cease for years to come.  It we weren't getting tired of Tiger threads, we would be getting tired of the "next best thing's" thread.

Do you think the stuff said about LeBron will stop after he gets his ring tonight?

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Anyone else tired of these threads by now? There will always be someone saying that Tiger won't be back, even if he wins 5 more majors and beat Jack.

Well, the guy in the article said that Tiger had to win three or four times in a row before he'd be back. Only four players in the history of the game have won four times in a row, and nobody but Tiger has even won four PGA events in a year since 2005, but that's how dumb some people are when it comes to their objective evaluations of Tiger's game.

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I just don't like his Sean Foley swing, and I don't think it agrees with him. It looks forced, and I don't think he will get back to domination using it.

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He's looking more and more comfortable with the swing. I think it's just fine what he and Foley are doing.

Look at how well he played at Arnies and Jacks tournaments, he won didn't he?

And he played really good on Thursday and Friday at the US Open.

Tiger has at least 10 more years to catch Jack, and I think he gets to 19 majors.

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This is silly. Tiger could become the second or third most dominant golfer in history for three years, starting tomorrow, and you'd still technically be correct in saying that he wasn't "back" since he had previously been the most or second most dominant. The guy is getting older and has had some major surgeries to recover from, so I don't think it's particularly insightful to predict that he won't ever be back at his 2000-era performance. But this is like trying to predict the weather for next March---there are hundreds of weathermen, and none of them are any better at it than asking a random guy on the street.

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