2013 NCAA College Football

[k-troop]

		BCS		Harris Poll			USA Today			Computer Rankings
RK	TEAM	AVG	PVS	RK	PTS	%	RK	PTS	%	AVG	A&H;	RB	CM	KM	JS	PW	%
1	Alabama	.9881	1	1	2595	.9981	1	1544	.9961	2	2	1	2	1	2	2	.970
2	Florida State	.9697	2	2	2494	.9592	2	1488	.9600	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	.990
3	Ohio State	.9200	3	3	2389	.9188	3	1428	.9213	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	.920
4	Auburn	.8236	6	5	2139	.8227	5	1268	.8181	4	5	7	4	5	8	4	.830
5	Missouri	.8077	8	6	2109	.8112	6	1243	.8019	5	4	10	5	7	6	5	.810
6	Clemson	.7726	7	4	2148	.8262	4	1289	.8316	10	12	4	9	10	14	7	.660

In the spirit of getting @saevel25 in a huff...

So let's just assume that Auburn blows up Bama next week (this is what if, so humor me) and Mizz blows up Aggy.  Ohio St. eeks out a win against _ichigan.

I'm guessing the rankings going into Conf Championship week would look like--

1. Fl St

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Mizz.

Ohio St. would face Mich St. in the Big-X champtionship--let's just say they barely win that one as well but finish undefeated.  #3 Auburn would face #4 Mizzou in Atlanta.  If Auburn dominates that game, would it be enough to jump over Ohio St?  There is currently a good amount of separation between Ohio St. and Auburn, but what if Auburn just tees off on two top-4 teams on consecutive weeks?

Edit:  regardless we're in for some REALLY GOOD football the next two weeks.  I'm super stoked.

BTW @Golfingdad I'm a little annoyed at what happened to the FSU Bulldogs in the polls this week.   Several teams above them lost this week, yet FSU drops a spot in the BCS?  How did NIU jump 3 spots ahead of them?  And LSU at 3 losses is breathing down their necks?  Wouldn't be such a big deal except the difference between 12, 16, and 17 in the BCS matters a lot for your team.  It means nothing to LSU or Wisconsin at this point.

[David in FL]

BCS

Harris Poll

USA Today

Computer Rankings

RK

TEAM

AVG

PVS

RK

PTS

%

RK

PTS

%

AVG

A&H;

RB

CM

KM

JS

PW

%

1

Alabama

.9881

1

1

2595

.9981

1

1544

.9961

2

2

1

2

1

2

2

.970

2

Florida State

.9697

2

2

2494

.9592

2

1488

.9600

1

1

2

1

2

1

1

.990

3

Ohio State

.9200

3

3

2389

.9188

3

1428

.9213

3

3

3

3

3

4

3

.920

4

Auburn

.8236

6

5

2139

.8227

5

1268

.8181

4

5

7

4

5

8

4

.830

5

Missouri

.8077

8

6

2109

.8112

6

1243

.8019

5

4

10

5

7

6

5

.810

6

Clemson

.7726

7

4

2148

.8262

4

1289

.8316

10

12

4

9

10

14

7

.660

In the spirit of getting @saevel25 in a huff...

So let's just assume that Auburn blows up Bama next week (this is what if, so humor me) and Mizz blows up Aggy.  Ohio St. eeks out a win against _ichigan.

I'm guessing the rankings going into Conf Championship week would look like--

1. Fl St

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Mizz.

Ohio St. would face Mich St. in the Big-X champtionship--let's just say they barely win that one as well but finish undefeated.  #3 Auburn would face #4 Mizzou in Atlanta.  If Auburn dominates that game, would it be enough to jump over Ohio St?  There is currently a good amount of separation between Ohio St. and Auburn, but what if Auburn just tees off on two top-4 teams on consecutive weeks?

Edit:  regardless we're in for some REALLY GOOD football the next two weeks.  I'm super stoked.

QFT!

[saevel25]

BCS

Harris Poll

USA Today

Computer Rankings

RK

TEAM

AVG

PVS

RK

PTS

%

RK

PTS

%

AVG

A&H;

RB

CM

KM

JS

PW

%

1

Alabama

.9881

1

1

2595

.9981

1

1544

.9961

2

2

1

2

1

2

2

.970

2

Florida State

.9697

2

2

2494

.9592

2

1488

.9600

1

1

2

1

2

1

1

.990

3

Ohio State

.9200

3

3

2389

.9188

3

1428

.9213

3

3

3

3

3

4

3

.920

4

Auburn

.8236

6

5

2139

.8227

5

1268

.8181

4

5

7

4

5

8

4

.830

5

Missouri

.8077

8

6

2109

.8112

6

1243

.8019

5

4

10

5

7

6

5

.810

6

Clemson

.7726

7

4

2148

.8262

4

1289

.8316

10

12

4

9

10

14

7

.660

In the spirit of getting @saevel25 in a huff...

So let's just assume that Auburn blows up Bama next week (this is what if, so humor me) and Mizz blows up Aggy.  Ohio St. eeks out a win against _ichigan.

I'm guessing the rankings going into Conf Championship week would look like--

1. Fl St

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Mizz.

Ohio St. would face Mich St. in the Big-X champtionship--let's just say they barely win that one as well but finish undefeated.  #3 Auburn would face #4 Mizzou in Atlanta.  If Auburn dominates that game, would it be enough to jump over Ohio St?  There is currently a good amount of separation between Ohio St. and Auburn, but what if Auburn just tees off on two top-4 teams on consecutive weeks?

Edit:  regardless we're in for some REALLY GOOD football the next two weeks.  I'm super stoked.

You have been watching to much College Football Live on ESPN

Depends, it will probably be close. But here's the thing, blowing up Alabama doesn't matter to the computers. They have no SOS in their equations. That is why the polls are 2/3rd human and 1/3rd computer. So were auburn might get help is in the human polls. Auburn is currently ranked 5th in both polls. So they got room to move. Still 0.0964 is a huge gap to fill. It might hurt OSU if they just get past Michigan. If they face Michigan State and its a close game. I don't think that hurts them that much in my opinion facing a number 11th ranked Michigan State. I could understand if Michigan State was 8-3 going into the title game.

Though I am rooting for Auburn, I am not sold on them. They are just one dimensional on offense. If they are able to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball against Alabama, it will be a close game. To blow out a team like Alabama, you have to have a Johnny Football, or a complete offense. Auburn is 106th in passing.

My only problem is the only teams to give Alabama fits are those with elite athletic QB's. Teams that have elite defenses. Basically LSU or Texas A&M.; I don't think Auburn can stop Alabama. Though Alabama isn't one to run up the score, being a control the ball team.

If I had to guess a score, Alabama would put together to many long sustained drives. Which would eat at the number of possessions that Auburn would need. Basically the clock just keeps them out of the game.

Alabama 33 Auburn 20

[k-troop]

You have been watching to much College Football Live on ESPN

I could understand if Michigan State was 8-3 going into the title game.

So I guess I'll be rooting for Minnesota on Saturday. See, just another reason to love the BCS:  I could not care less about Mich St vs. Minn otherwise.

[Golfingdad]

Quote:

Originally Posted by k-troop

		BCS		Harris Poll			USA Today			Computer Rankings
RK	TEAM	AVG	PVS	RK	PTS	%	RK	PTS	%	AVG	A&H;	RB	CM	KM	JS	PW	%
1	Alabama	.9881	1	1	2595	.9981	1	1544	.9961	2	2	1	2	1	2	2	.970
2	Florida State	.9697	2	2	2494	.9592	2	1488	.9600	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	.990
3	Ohio State	.9200	3	3	2389	.9188	3	1428	.9213	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	.920
4	Auburn	.8236	6	5	2139	.8227	5	1268	.8181	4	5	7	4	5	8	4	.830
5	Missouri	.8077	8	6	2109	.8112	6	1243	.8019	5	4	10	5	7	6	5	.810
6	Clemson	.7726	7	4	2148	.8262	4	1289	.8316	10	12	4	9	10	14	7	.660

In the spirit of getting @saevel25 in a huff...

So let's just assume that Auburn blows up Bama next week (this is what if, so humor me) and Mizz blows up Aggy.  Ohio St. eeks out a win against _ichigan.

I'm guessing the rankings going into Conf Championship week would look like--

1. Fl St

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Mizz.

Ohio St. would face Mich St. in the Big-X champtionship--let's just say they barely win that one as well but finish undefeated.  #3 Auburn would face #4 Mizzou in Atlanta.  If Auburn dominates that game, would it be enough to jump over Ohio St?  There is currently a good amount of separation between Ohio St. and Auburn, but what if Auburn just tees off on two top-4 teams on consecutive weeks?

Edit:  regardless we're in for some REALLY GOOD football the next two weeks.  I'm super stoked.

Totally agree.  However, if that scenario happens, I would like to be the first to point out that OSU has not lost to anybody this year and that Auburn lost to a team that lost to a team that lost to Vanderbilt. ;)

Quote:

BTW @Golfingdad I'm a little annoyed at what happened to the FSU Bulldogs in the polls this week. Several teams above them lost this week, yet FSU drops a spot in the BCS? How did NIU jump 3 spots ahead of them? And LSU at 3 losses is breathing down their necks? Wouldn't be such a big deal except the difference between 12, 16, and 17 in the BCS matters a lot for your team. It means nothing to LSU or Wisconsin at this point.

LOL ... thanks for the sympathy.  It's pretty clear and has been pretty clear for the last several weeks that FSU and NIU have peaked in the rankings.  Teams in AQ conferences that win will usually keep their spot and move up as teams ahead of them lose.  FSU and NIU have both stayed in that 14-15-16 range and when teams in the 9-13 range lose, somebody from below them jumps ahead of them.  (ASU and UCLA basically swapped positions this week, for example)  I don't think that is unfair, just that I've noticed it.

Now, how NIU passed us this week, I'm not sure, but something to do with the computer polls, I guess.  The bright side, though, is that we have a slight edge in the SOS of the last two games.  We play a .500 team (San Jose State), and then probably a 8-4 team (Utah State) in the title game, while they play a 1-10 (some directional Michigan school) team and a 9-3 team (Bowling Green or Buffalo) in their title game.

It will be close.  Sadly, if we just miss out, it could end up being Mother Natures fault.  We were scheduled to play at Colorado on September 14th, but the big storm that swept through there forced them to cancel the game and they couldn't reschedule.  If they end up missing out due to fractions of a point, its likely that one extra win, and one extra win over an AQ school (albeit a shitty one) would have been enough to bump them up a bit.  But we'll have to wait and see.  They actually both have to win two more games first, and who knows if that will even happen.

Currently though, Brad Edwards (ESPN BCS guy) has us projected into the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahome State.  That would be mighty exciting!  (At least until the game actually starts ;))

[Golfingdad]

Depends, it will probably be close. But here's the thing, blowing up Alabama doesn't matter to the computers. They have no SOS in their equations. That is why the polls are 2/3rd human and 1/3rd computer. So were auburn might get help is in the human polls.

Hmmmm ... I thought I remembered a big to-do several years ago where the AP poll opted out of inclusion in this whole process.  Am I wrong about that?  (Wait ... maybe the "Harris" poll is the other human poll??)

And further ... if the computers don't have SOS in their equations, what do they have?  How do they decipher a 10-0 Alabama and F(lorida)SU and OSU from the 10-0 F(resno)SU and NIU?

[saevel25]

Hmmmm ... I thought I remembered a big to-do several years ago where the AP poll opted out of inclusion in this whole process.  Am I wrong about that?  (Wait ... maybe the "Harris" poll is the other human poll??)

And further ... if the computers don't have SOS in their equations, what do they have?  How do they decipher a 10-0 Alabama and F(lorida)SU and OSU from the 10-0 F(resno)SU and NIU?

Ok i am wrong, they do have a strength of schedule. Like how many wins versus a top 10 opponent, versus 10-20, things like that. What they don't have is Margin of Victory.

So if LSU beat Texas A&M; by 14, and Alabama beat Texas A&M; by 3. They would only consider that a win. There are no style points in the computer rankings.

[Golfingdad]

Ok i am wrong, they do have a strength of schedule. Like how many wins versus a top 10 opponent, versus 10-20, things like that. What they don't have is Margin of Victory.

So if LSU beat Texas A&M; by 14, and Alabama beat Texas A&M; by 3. They would only consider that a win. There are no style points in the computer rankings.

Ah yes, that makes sense.  I remember when they decided to get rid of that ... the big guys actually had incentive to rack up 90 points on the little schools.

Speaking of little schools, how come we're not talking about Florida this week?  They lost to an FCS school!  I thought only Big 10 teams did that?  Further, they lost to a team that had a total of ZERO yards passing on the day.  Holy cow!

[saevel25]

Well apparently the SEC isn't what they are cracked up to be. I though the SEC was so good that they could field their cheerleaders and beat FCS teams.

[SloverUT]

Well apparently the SEC isn't what they are cracked up to be. I though the SEC was so good that they could field their cheerleaders and beat FCS teams.

Everyone has their flukes.  It wasn't that long ago Michigan fell to Appalachian State and they weren't decimated with injuries.

But if the SEC isn't what they are cracked up to be with three teams in the Top 5 currently, I suppose I'll take it :).

[saevel25]

Everyone has their flukes.  It wasn't that long ago Michigan fell to Appalachian State and they weren't decimated with injuries.

But if the SEC isn't what they are cracked up to be with three teams in the Top 5 currently, I suppose I'll take it :).

lets not get into the biased nature of the ranking system. You can't hang your hat on something subjective.

[SloverUT]

lets not get into the biased nature of the ranking system. You can't hang your hat on something subjective.

Sure I can.  It is the current ranking system used by the NCAA and will be for the foreseeable future.

[saevel25]

Sure I can.  It is the current ranking system used by the NCAA and will be for the foreseeable future.

It really doesn't matter for the future because of the playoff. You think the people in the commission are just going to look at the list and go, ok teams 1 thru 4 get in. Nope. They might go teams 1,2, 5 and 6. Who knows, it's up to a panel of people.

[Golfingdad]

Sure I can.  It is the current ranking system used by the NCAA and will be for the foreseeable future.

Then I suggest you go see an optometrist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

[SloverUT]

Then I suggest you go see an optometrist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

Don't need to see an Optometrist.  The same system to rank the teams will still be in place, just as it is now.  So at this point in the season things would be exactly the same as they are now.

And even with the panel I think the SEC would get two teams in if the season ended now.  I'd have a hard time of being convinced that at this point in the season any of the other 1 loss teams are more deserving than Auburn.  However, it is good for other conferences that Auburn/Mizzou, and Bama would end two teams chances of of making the playoffs if they were in this year.

Also, a panel is no better than the current BCS system if you feel the system is subjective.  A panel of people voting is definitely subjective.

Not to mention that we are going to have the exact same arguments of the system that we do now, except instead of #3 arguing they should be #2, it will be #5 arguing they should have been #4.

[MS256]

lets not get into the biased nature of the ranking system. You can't hang your hat on something subjective.

I don't know if the SEC is as good as they've been for several years or not (and neither do you). There have always been bad teams in the SEC and every other conference, and Florida happens to be a bad team right now (for multiple reasons).

The SEC's record speaks for itself over the last 10 years.

That record gives them the benefit of doubt in most voter's minds.

Part of me almost wishes you would get your wish and play against FSU in the NC game. The SEC is due to lose one of those and I would just as soon it not be my team when it happens...But the rest of me wants to keep our shot at another title in place as long as we can.

On another note: Watch for LSU to completely blow somebody up in a bowl game. All the talent in the world and the best 3 loss team out there. If they get matched up against another 2 or 3 loss team they will physically beat them up. Sort of like Alabama was 3 years ago. Loads of talent but a crappy regular season and a mismatch for Michigan State in a bowl game.

[Golfingdad]

Don't need to see an Optometrist.  The same system to rank the teams will still be in place, just as it is now.  So at this point in the season things would be exactly the same as they are now. And even with the panel I think the SEC would get two teams in if the season ended now.  I'd have a hard time of being convinced that at this point in the season any of the other 1 loss teams are more deserving than Auburn.  However, it is good for other conferences that Auburn/Mizzou, and Bama would end two teams chances of of making the playoffs if they were in this year. Also, a panel is no better than the current BCS system if you feel the system is subjective.  A panel of people voting is definitely subjective. Not to mention that we are going to have the exact same arguments of the system that we do now, except instead of #3 arguing they should be #2, it will be #5 arguing they should have been #4.

But that's my point ... The current in season ranking system will not be the same. The BCS is no more. That panel will meet a few times a year and release their own rankings. That's all. But mostly I was just trying to be silly. ;)

[SloverUT]

But that's my point ... The current in season ranking system will not be the same. The BCS is no more. That panel will meet a few times a year and release their own rankings. That's all. But mostly I was just trying to be silly. ;)

Yes, but do you not think people will be formulating week to week rankings based off a similar system that we use now? AP, etc.  People are going to want to know how their teams stack up on a week to week basis.

Also, we are now trading a formulated system for the subjective votes of 13 people with flexibility to choose as they please (within reason of course).  It is still going to be a majorly flawed system with similar outcomes as I suggested earlier.  Instead of #3 being pissed off it will be the #5 team left out of the playoffs.  The only good thing out of all of this is that 4 teams will ultimately get to pair off and duke it out.  It is how those four teams got there that will be scrutinized just as it is now.

I could see the arguments now, based on the selection committee.

Archie Manning: That guy favors the SEC.

Mike Tranghese: That guy favors the Big East.

And so on..

As long as subjective people are picking and choosing the system will continuously be perceived as flawed.