Inconsistency- the key to PGA Tour success

[MEfree]

I mean inconsistent in a good way like following a missed cut with a win as opposed to back to back top 10s.

Compare Derek Ernst to Carl Pettersson

Player	Derek Ernst	Carl Pettersson
Tournaments	21	24
Scoring Ave	72.27	71.27
Made Cuts	7	19
Missed Cuts	14	5
Top 25s	1	3
Top 10s	1	1
Wins	1	0
Money	$          1,330,856	$            738,143
Fed Ex	93rd	113th

or compare Jonas Blixt with Luke Donald

Player	Jonas Blixt	Luke Donald
Tournaments	23	15
Scoring Ave	71.05	69.93
Made Cuts	14	12
Missed Cuts	9	3
Top 25s	4	9
Top 10s	2	4
Wins	1	0
Money	$          2,008,264	$        1,457,246
Fed Ex	29th	55th

Do you think it is a good or bad thing that Q School, which rewarded consistency by having to get through multiple stages on different golf course, has been replaced by the Web.com Tour Finals where a player can earn his PGA Tour card with 1 good performance out of 4 events?

John Peterson was 28 under for the first two events with a t5 and t3, but trails Will Mackenzie, Trevor Immelman and Andrew Svoboda, all of whom had 1 good finish and one missed cut.

Player	Will Mackenzie	John Peterson	Immelman
Week 1	-2, cut	-17, t5	-20, 1st
Week 2	-12, 2nd	-11, t3	+1, cut
Priority Rank	4th	6th	1st

[Slice of Life]

I'm not sure those are great comparisons. One would think Luke would be ahead of Blixt in the fed ex and money standings if he'd played in EIGHT more tournaments. He'd also have raised his chances at getting that 1 win.

[MEfree]

I'm not sure those are great comparisons. One would think Luke would be ahead of Blixt in the fed ex and money standings if he'd played in EIGHT more tournaments. He'd also have raised his chances at getting that 1 win.

ok, then how about this comparison instead

Player	McDowell	Luke Donald
Tournaments	15	15
Scoring Ave	70.31	69.93
Made Cuts	10	12
Missed Cuts	5	3
Top 25s	5	9
Top 10s	4	4
Wins	1	0
Money	$          2,156,595	$        1,457,246
Fed Ex	28th	55th

[jamo]

The money is set up so that first place is MUCH better than second place, but something like 35th place isn't that much better than 36th. They want to value winning, and rightfully so, I think. We've had threads in the past where people have argued that winning should be valued even more highly.

[MEfree]

The money is set up so that first place is MUCH better than second place, but something like 35th place isn't that much better than 36th. They want to value winning, and rightfully so, I think.

We've had threads in the past where people have argued that winning should be valued even more highly.

I agree that winning should be valued.  Looking specifically at the Web.com finals, it appears that a guy with 1 solo 2nd and 3 missed cuts will finish ahead of a guy who finishes tied 8th in all 4 events.  My guess is that the more consistent guy is actually more likely to go out and play well on the PGA Tour in 2014 (although I think Patrick Cantlay, who has a solo 2nd and a DNS is likely to have a good career as long as his back holds out).

[Slice of Life]

ok, then how about this comparison instead

Player

McDowell

Luke Donald

Tournaments

15

15

Scoring Ave

70.31

69.93

Made Cuts

10

12

Missed Cuts

5

3

Top 25s

5

9

Top 10s

4

4

Wins

1

0

Money

$          2,156,595

$        1,457,246

Fed Ex

28th

55th

That's better. But Graeme has had such a weird year. Either feast or famine. Seems like he's playing Ricky Bobby golf, if you're not first, you're last.

[Zwick]

I think to keep the tour card it's better to be consistent. If a player makes a lot of cuts and finishs a few times in the top 10 or top 20, he will probably keep his card for a long time without much problems (see Carl Petterson). And such seasons are relatively easy to repeat. But the player who misses half of the cuts and only gets one good finish all season (like a top3) will in the long run have a lot more problems to secure his card (see Derek Ernst).

For the top players, it's a bit different, because they will likely keep their cards either way, consistent or not.

[MEfree]

I think to keep the tour card it's better to be consistent. If a player makes a lot of cuts and finishs a few times in the top 10 or top 20, he will probably keep his card for a long time without much problems (see Carl Petterson). And such seasons are relatively easy to repeat. But the player who misses half of the cuts and only gets one good finish all season (like a top3) will in the long run have a lot more problems to secure his card (see Derek Ernst).

For the top players, it's a bit different, because they will likely keep their cards either way, consistent or not.

I agree with you in the long run but on a year to year basis, having a single top 2 or 3 finish is a pretty good predictor of keeping your card.

With the new structure of the Web.com Tour Final series, the guy with one top 2 or 3 and 3 missed is more likely to earn a card than a guy who makes 4 cuts but doesn't have a top 10 finish- I doubt 4 top 25s is any guarantee of getting one of the 50 cards.

[iacas]

I agree with you in the long run but on a year to year basis, having a single top 2 or 3 finish is a pretty good predictor of keeping your card.

With the new structure of the Web.com Tour Final series, the guy with one top 2 or 3 and 3 missed is more likely to earn a card than a guy who makes 4 cuts but doesn't have a top 10 finish- I doubt 4 top 25s is any guarantee of getting one of the 50 cards.

Good.

[MEfree]

Tyronne Van Aswegen, currently #19 on Tour Finals Priority Ranking with 1 made cut in 3 events (4 rounds of 73 or worse)

9/01/13	Hotel Fitness Championship	CUT	72	70	--	--	--	142	-2	--
9/08/13	Chiquita Classic	CUT	73	77	--	--	--	150	+6	--
9/15/13	Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship	T4	65	73	68	73	--	279	-5	$41,333.33
Bold = scores par or better *=Unofficial Event

EVENTS PLAYED	FINISH								OFFICIAL MONEY TOTAL
	1 ST	2 ND	3 RD	TOP 10	TOP 25	MADE CUT	CUT	WD
24	--	--	--	3	8	12	12	--	$137,511

compared to Chad Collins,currently #21 with 3 made cuts in 3 events (all rounds 72 or less)

9/01/13	Hotel Fitness Championship	T60	71	70	71	71	--	283	-5	$2,900.00
9/08/13	Chiquita Classic	T24	71	70	72	71	--	284	-4	$8,700.00
9/15/13	Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship	T7	69	72	68	71	--	280	-4	$27,071.43
Bold = scores par or better *=Unofficial Event

EVENTS PLAYED	FINISH								OFFICIAL MONEY TOTAL
	1 ST	2 ND	3 RD	TOP 10	TOP 25	MADE CUT	CUT	WD
23	--	--	3	4	8	15	8	--	$168,294