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Are you ready for some NFL Football? 2014 Edition.


phan52
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Oh, are any of you guys bettors?  I'm not and there is something that I don't understand that I'm genuinely curious about ... the odd prop bets.

How do they manage creating some of the off-the-wall prop bets that are only tangentially related to the actual competition and are very easily manipulated?  A couple of random examples:

"What color will Bill Belichicks hoodie be?"

"Will Belichick have full sleeves or cut sleeves?"

"Will Katy Perry wear a skirt, pants or shorts?"

I mean,these things are so easily controlled by people who could also bet.  There isn't anything illegal about a Katy Perry wardrobe guy betting on this, is there?  How hard would it be for him to choose shorts for her and then bet a bunch of money on it?  (Odds are +240)

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NFC beats AFC. Brady better than Manning but that D will be tough to overcome. And, Brady will have to use full balls so there will be some Pats drops.

Prove that?

This statement is not about who is better. Just pointing out some things on completion percentage.

Peyton Manning averaged 65.5% completion. He was +/- 3.3% around that average. Peyton is pretty consistent and completion percentage has always been pretty consistent for really good QB's. You are talking from max to min about a +/- 5% of their completion percentage.

Tom Brady averages 63.5% completions. He is +/- 3.0% around his average. I took out his +5.4% in 2007 because that was the year he and Randy Moss blew up the NFL record book. That year was an outlier year for Brady. That was the year NEP went all spread offense, revolutionized the slot receiver position, and went all no huddle with some up tempo.

Here is a cool stat. Wes Welker averaged 72% catch rate under Brady. He averaged 71% under Manning. Both QB's throw a very good football with similar completion percentages and a similar offense.

Just saying, doesn't look like much of an advantage to have a deflated ball by 2 psi?

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
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Prove that?  This statement is not about who is better. Just pointing out some things on completion percentage.  Peyton Manning averaged 65.5% completion. He was +/- 3.3% around that average. Peyton is pretty consistent and completion percentage has always been pretty consistent for really good QB's. You are talking from max to min about a +/- 5% of their completion percentage.  Tom Brady averages 63.5% completions. He is +/- 3.0% around his average. I took out his +5.4% in 2007 because that was the year he and Randy Moss blew up the NFL record book. That year was an outlier year for Brady. That was the year NEP went all spread offense, revolutionized the slot receiver position, and went all no huddle with some up tempo.  Here is a cool stat. Wes Welker averaged 72% catch rate under Brady. He averaged 71% under Manning. Both QB's throw a very good football with similar completion percentages and a similar offense.  Just saying, doesn't look like much of an advantage to have a deflated ball by 2 psi?

We'll see. May not manifest in 80° temps Sun, but if they do something with the rules in terms of checking balls more closely/frequently next year, it's a pretty safe bet Pats will have more drops and fumbles than they've had since 2010.

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We'll see. May not manifest in 80° temps Sun, but if they do something with the rules in terms of checking balls more closely/frequently next year, it's a pretty safe bet Pats will have more drops and fumbles than they've had since 2010.

As for the Temps?

Here is Brady's career comp % by month,

September: 64%

October: 63%

November: 64%

December: 62%

January: 63%

Here is a good one,

Dome: 67.6%

Outdoors: 63.2%

Wait, Brady is more accurate in a warm, controlled condition like a dome! There is no significant difference in performance with temperature. Heck I can say Brady is much more inaccurate when he's playing outdoors. So your assumption that because he's playing in 80 degree temperatures with properly inflated footballs will cause him to be that more inaccurate is wrong.

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
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As for the Temps? Here is Brady's career comp % by month,  September: 64% October: 63% November: 64% December: 62% January: 63% Here is a good one, Dome: 67.6% Outdoors: 63.2% Wait, Brady is more accurate in a warm, controlled condition like a dome! There is no significant difference in performance with temperature. Heck I can say Brady is much more inaccurate when he's playing outdoors. So your assumption that because he's playing in 80 degree temperatures with properly inflated footballs will cause him to be that more inaccurate is wrong.

That's cuz he's deflating balls in cold weather. Let me be more clear: I'm predicting a Jameis Winston moment for Brady Sunday, just too much air for those little hands. Well, that probably won't happen but damn, it would be funny.

In my Bag: Driver: Titelist 913 D3 9.5 deg. 3W: TaylorMade RBZ 14.5 3H: TaylorMade RBZ 18.5 4I - SW: TaylorMade R7 TP LW: Titelist Vokey 60 Putter: Odyssey 2-Ball

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As for the Temps? Here is Brady's career comp % by month,  September: 64% October: 63% November: 64% December: 62% January: 63% Here is a good one, Dome: 67.6% Outdoors: 63.2% Wait, Brady is more accurate in a warm, controlled condition like a dome! There is no significant difference in performance with temperature. Heck I can say Brady is much more inaccurate when he's playing outdoors. So your assumption that because he's playing in 80 degree temperatures with properly inflated footballs will cause him to be that more inaccurate is wrong.

How does that compare to other qbs? Without that information, this is pretty meaningless.

Dan

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How does that compare to other qbs? Without that information, this is pretty meaningless.

Well If I pick out some of the ELITE QB's who played in similar or worse conditions. I don't care about the common Joe QB's because they are more volatile.

Brett Farve: 62%, 62%, 62.5%, 60.9%, 62.6% (same months in same order above); Dome: 64.8%, Outdoors: 61.14%

Aaron Rodgers: 66%, 67.5%, 65.3%, 63.5%, 74% (only 3 games in Jan); Dome: 68.9%, Outdoors: 65%

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
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Well If I pick out some of the ELITE QB's who played in similar or worse conditions. I don't care about the common Joe QB's because they are more volatile.  Brett Farve: 62%, 62%, 62.5%, 60.9%, 62.6% (same months in same order above); Dome: 64.8%, Outdoors: 61.14%  Aaron Rodgers: 66%, 67.5%, 65.3%, 63.5%, 74% (only 3 games in Jan); Dome: 68.9%, Outdoors: 65%

So the weather effected those guys more? As far as indoor vs outdoor. I'll be honest. I don't know what the point of this is.

Dan

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So the weather effected those guys more? As far as indoor vs outdoor.

I'll be honest. I don't know what the point of this is.

Well if you consider dome versus outdoor, Brady suffered more compared to the other two QB's with a near 4.5% drop versus 3-4% with the other two. So no, weather did not effect those guys more.

What the point is,

That the whole situation is blow out of proportion because of the hatred for the Patriots.

That the rule on the PSI is stupid.

That people want to make it seem like the Patriots won all these games because they used deflated footballs and cheated.

Patriots won all those games because they were better. They have Tom Brady. They have Bill Belichek. They have a consistent front office that gives them all the tools to win. They have a system that the players buy into 100%.

It has nothing to do with deflated footballs, and everything to do with the Patriots.

All the sports analyst who are realists know this is no big deal. All those who are barking the loudest are those who hate the Patriots. If this was the Buffalo Bills who did this no one would care.

Matt Dougherty, P.E.
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Well if you consider dome versus outdoor, Brady suffered more compared to the other two QB's with a near 4.5% drop versus 3-4% with the other two. So no, weather did not effect those guys more.  What the point is,  That the whole situation is blow out of proportion because of the hatred for the Patriots.  That the rule on the PSI is stupid.  That people want to make it seem like the Patriots won all these games because they used deflated footballs and cheated.  Patriots won all those games because they were better. They have Tom Brady. They have Bill Belichek. They have a consistent front office that gives them all the tools to win. They have a system that the players buy into 100%.  It has nothing to do with deflated footballs, and everything to do with the Patriots.  All the sports analyst who are realists know this is no big deal. All those who are barking the loudest are those who hate the Patriots. If this was the Buffalo Bills who did this no one would care.

Two points 1. If the psi rule is stupid then bring it up at the rules committee during the off season and work on changing it instead of "breaking" them no matter how stupid they or you think the rule is stupid. 2. Of course the pats will be scrutinized more than the bills because they have been winners, and it is stupid that they put all that hard work into question by "breaking" such a stupid rule.

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Eyad

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Well if you consider dome versus outdoor, Brady suffered more compared to the other two QB's with a near 4.5% drop versus 3-4% with the other two. So no, weather did not effect those guys more.

What the point is,

That the whole situation is blow out of proportion because of the hatred for the Patriots.

That the rule on the PSI is stupid.

That people want to make it seem like the Patriots won all these games because they used deflated footballs and cheated.

Patriots won all those games because they were better. They have Tom Brady. They have Bill Belichek. They have a consistent front office that gives them all the tools to win. They have a system that the players buy into 100%.

It has nothing to do with deflated footballs, and everything to do with the Patriots.

All the sports analyst who are realists know this is no big deal. All those who are barking the loudest are those who hate the Patriots. If this was the Buffalo Bills who did this no one would care.


Why don't we use your crappy teams as the token "insignificant" team rather than the purest of all franchises, okay?

The issue isn't how much deflated balls helped them. That's not why it's a big deal. It's a big deal because it shows that you cannot trust them to play by the rules. You have to wonder what else they've done, and what else they are doing. That's what happens when you flush your reputation own the toilet.  In fact, the minimal advantage the pats and their supporters claim to have gained from knowing what plays the other team was running (no biggie) or getting a better grip on the ball makes it worse, not better. If they're willing to cheat for such a small advantage, what else are they doing?

It undermines the integrity of the sport. Not the league,but the sport, the actual games. The league has no integrity, we can all agree on that. They care about money and image above all else, including one of their own knocking his wife unconscious. But that's tangential to the game. That's about the suits in the sky box. This goes to the very heart of competition and the primary interest of the fans.  It goes to the very basic assumptions underlying fair play--an even playing field.  When that's gone, the NFL becomes the WWE.

And I just don't think there's anything wrong with an outcry, proportional or not, when its just demanding fair play, honesty, and responsibility.

Dan

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:vokey: Vokey :) 58.11

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Here is a cool stat. Wes Welker averaged 72% catch rate under Brady. He averaged 71% under Manning. Both QB's throw a very good football with similar completion percentages and a similar offense.

Just saying, doesn't look like much of an advantage to have a deflated ball by 2 psi?

Peyton's a better QB...he's more accurate, so even with a more inflated ball, Welker had more legitimate opportunities. ;)

Ryan M
 
The Internet Adjustment Formula:
IAD = ( [ADD] * .96 + [EPS] * [1/.12] ) / (1.15)
 
IAD = Internet Adjusted Distance (in yards)
ADD = Actual Driver Distance (in yards)
EPS = E-Penis Size (in inches)
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Wait, maybe this whole uproar is because it is the Patriots and they have owned the NFL for the past decade.

What have the Patriots won in the last decade?

Bill M

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What have the Patriots won in the last decade?

This is my favorite.  Brady is GOAT because he won 3 super bowls and that's all that matters.  The TEAM has been better than anyone over the last 10 years, even though there are 8 others with more super bowl wins, because...I guess regular season win percentage is more important than super bowls?  Makes no sense.

Dan

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:vokey: Vokey :) 58.11

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What is really on the line this Sunday:

If the Patriots win, Brady has his 4th Super Bowl victory, making him relevant in the discussion:"Who is the all-time best QB?" And, Belichick goes down in history as one of the best coaches ever. Also, with their 4th Super Bowl win they are only behind the Steelers (6), 49ers (5), and Cowboys (5).

If the Seahawks win they are placed in the same category with a few other teams a back-to-back Super Bowl winners, and their defense is placed into a discussion with the Steel Curtain and '85 Bears as best defense in the history of the NFL.

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Your blind hatred is showing...  There are not 8 teams with more Super Bowl wins in the past decade.  There are two, the Steelers and the Giants (who won both of theirs over the Patriots).   Everone else who has won a Super Bowl in the past decade is in a tie with NE, who last won it on Feb. 6, 2005.    In fact, there aren't 8 teams with more Super Bowl wins total.  There are 5 and if not for a couple of fluke plays, there would be only one.   As of Sunday, NE moves into a three-way tie for the most appearances all time in the Super Bowl and in the B/B era, no team has been there more times.  Hate them if you want.   But at least be realistic when you do.

As far as GOAT, either team or player, that is a discussion for which there can never be a consensus.   The game/rules has changed too much over the years to ever definitively prove who or what team is the absolute best (the same can be said in virtually any sport).  The best you can do is compare them to their peers from the same era and even then it seems there is not going to be a consensus..

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Why don't we use your crappy teams as the token "insignificant" team rather than the purest of all franchises, okay?

The issue isn't how much deflated balls helped them. That's not why it's a big deal. It's a big deal because it shows that you cannot trust them to play by the rules. You have to wonder what else they've done, and what else they are doing. That's what happens when you flush your reputation own the toilet.  In fact, the minimal advantage the pats and their supporters claim to have gained from knowing what plays the other team was running (no biggie) or getting a better grip on the ball makes it worse, not better. If they're willing to cheat for such a small advantage, what else are they doing?

It undermines the integrity of the sport. Not the league,but the sport, the actual games. The league has no integrity, we can all agree on that. They care about money and image above all else, including one of their own knocking his wife unconscious. But that's tangential to the game. That's about the suits in the sky box. This goes to the very heart of competition and the primary interest of the fans.  It goes to the very basic assumptions underlying fair play--an even playing field.  When that's gone, the NFL becomes the WWE.

And I just don't think there's anything wrong with an outcry, proportional or not, when its just demanding fair play, honesty, and responsibility.

See, I don't think it really does, because (this really isn't supposed to sound as cynical as it does) the integrity isn't there in the first place.  Deep breath ......

The Vikings and Panthers and Aaron Rodgers doctor balls, and Jeff Blake admits to doctoring balls all the time, and Brad Johnson bribes guys to doctor Super Bowl balls, and guys on every team take steroids to get an edge, and the Chargers put stickum on their uniforms, and the Broncos linemen put vaseline on their uniforms, and Belicheck tapes people, and the Saints purposely injure people, as does Ndamukong Suh and a handful of others, and supposedly Mike Shanahan ran a scheme involving headphones in all of his players helmets to call plays or whatever, and Mike Tomlin trips people, and that assistant coach on the Jets trips people, and the Broncos and the 49ers and the Cowboys and the Redskins and the Raiders cheat the salary cap, and the Broncos (man they keep coming up a lot) also pulled a "spygate" in 2010, and the New York Giants fake injuries, and Ray Lewis uses Deer Antler spray, and ...

well, I think you get my point.  In a league where EVERYBODY is trying to get a leg up, you have to quantify exactly how serious the cheating is, otherwise, they're all cheating and there is zero integrity.  Slightly under inflated balls are certainly not the most egregious on that list, and I'd contend, nowhere even near the top.

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