Are you ready for some NFL Football? 2014 Edition.

[mchepp]

Belicheck's explanation for not calling timeout: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4777871/bill-belichick-explains-decision-not-to-take-timeout-at-end-of-super-bowl

And one more pretty good analysis of the last play by the "top commenter" to that article:

The picture is much clearer now for me.

Belichick put in his goal line and felt that Seattle with 3 receivers would struggle to run against a goal line defense with 3 receivers. This meant they would either run and not get it, or pass. I can see why Belichick would let this play out. Plus as your post says, and I have said, by not calling time out it was a bit of head game anyways. I think everyone was expecting him to call time out.

The play call for the pass was crap. It should have been some kind of roll out where Wilson can throw it out of the back of the end zone if he doesn't get the throw he wants. A quick hitter like this has the potential to be tipped or intercepted like it was. My original comment about it being a dumb play call stands.

[club ho]

None of the rest matters.  This is a big giant QFT.

That play gets recreated 100 times and he doesn't hold on to that more than once or twice.

Just an amazing, amazing play.  Butler deserves 100% of the credit for the outcome of that play.

I agree and lets not forget that Browner made a great block preventing a pick. Anyway Tom Brady knows it and is giving Butler his MVP pickup truck.

[Golfingdad]

As for the other stuff

The play call for the pass was crap. It should have been some kind of roll out where Wilson can throw it out of the back of the end zone if he doesn't get the throw he wants. A quick hitter like this has the potential to be tipped or intercepted like it was. My original comment about it being a dumb play call stands.

Yeah, the comment was rehashing a lot of stuff we've been discussing, but the part that was most interesting (because we haven't been discussing it) was his "edit."  I think that's a really good point that there was not a great chance of NE making that comeback if they scored.  While I'm still not willing to roast Carroll, I think it's definitely fair to say he was slightly out-coached there in the final seconds.

But isn't it nice that we're talking about actual football instead of the stupid trumped up deflate-gate crap? ;)

[turtleback]

I think Abu is latching onto Matt's claim that Lynch isn't good in short yardage because he averages 2.2 yards instead of 4.5 or whatever in other situations.  Whether he's good or not needs other players for context.  But yeah, that doesn't really answer whether a run was better than a pass here.

I would think that 2.2 yards is a pretty good average in "short yardage" situations. And besides, in this case, he needed less than a yard.

I agree.

If you are averaging 2.2 yards per carry with 4 or less yards to go it is theoretically possible to make every single first down.  And you will probably make most of the.

The problem is the set-up  It is like when the golf commentators say that some guy is 48 for 50 inside 8 feet.  That sounds really impressive until you consider that a lot of those 48 putts were one foot tap-ins.  It isn't like he was 48 for 50 ON 8 footers.

Of those <4  situations we have 4s, 3s, 2s, and 1s.  It isn't like it was always 3rd and 4 and he gained 2.2 yards and didn't make it.

[Slice of Life]

[saevel25]

@Slice of Life

I am sure there could be a meme,  "I am Rob Lowe and I have Direct TV"... "and I am Rob Lowe and I drafted Johnny Football"

[Slice of Life]

@Slice of Life

I am sure there could be a meme,  "I am Rob Lowe and I have Direct TV"... "and I am Rob Lowe and I drafted Johnny Football"

I could whip up 50 for the Browns in about an hour. No need for the whistly guy lol

[dsc123]

Here's one for @saevel25 and @golfinddad, :

Quote:

Stop Trying To Convince Yourselves Seattle's Pass Call Wasn't Stupid http://regressing.deadspin.com/stop-trying-to-convince-yourselves-seattles-pass-call-w-1683463031

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

Belicheck's explanation for not calling timeout: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4777871/bill-belichick-explains-decision-not-to-take-timeout-at-end-of-super-bowl

And one more pretty good analysis of the last play by the "top commenter" to that article:

Quote:

Edit: One other point. The idea that the Patriots needed to save time for a final Brady drive makes no sense. The entire Patriot offense that game depended on short passes and long drives. The Seattle secondary is exceptional at defending the long pass, and the Patriots are not a good vertical passing team. The odds that they will be able to move the ball from their own 20 to the Seattle 35 or so in the last minute (with at most one time out left) are tiny -- and then even if they succeed and Gostkowski ties the game, all they've done is turn the game into a coin-flip, both literally and metaphorically.

The Patriots couldn't do it in the last minute of the first Giants Super Bowl with Randy Moss on the team. They couldn't do it in the last minute of the second Giants Super Bowl, even though Brady put multiple passes directly on receivers' hands. I think Belichick was not remotely tempted to try that again.

That is complete nonsense.   I'm not even arguing against Belicheck's non-timeout, but the author must have not seen Brady's first three super bowls or any other game Brady has played.  I can't stand the guy, and I refuse to call him the GOAT simply because of Pete Carroll's called a run play, but I would be terrified of Brady in that situation.  Yeah, he makes his living on 3 yard passes, but I can't tell you how many times I've seen him beat teams with a minute or less on the clock.    Only someone who hasn't watched Tom Brady play would call the chances of him getting into FG range "tiny."  I bet this is something that even @boogielicious and I can agree on.

And what's the nonsense about a literal coin flip to determine the ending?  Does this guy even know that they don't play regular sudden death anymore?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

Belicheck's explanation for not calling timeout: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4777871/bill-belichick-explains-decision-not-to-take-timeout-at-end-of-super-bowl

And one more pretty good analysis of the last play by the "top commenter" to that article:

Quote:

Lynch was far from automatic from the 1, having been stopped 7 of the last 12 times over the past two seasons.

In other words, if you give it to him once he'll probably score?  And if you give it to him three times, he'd have about a 93% chance of scoring? Except that he was inside the 1, so his odds are even better.

And if instead they choose to pass, how has Russell Wilson done in that situation?  I'm missing the part where passing gives you more than a 93% chance of scoring.  The 108 passes by other QBs from the 1 yard line isn't really helpful. What if there's a 75% interception rate from the 2 yard line?  Would you say a 1 yard pass is unlikely to be intercepted but a two yard pass is super risky?  It just seems like cherry picking stats.  And even worse, they tell us nothing about seattle.  By citing Lynch's stats, he recognizes that league wide stats are not the most helpful, but then he relies on league wide stats for the pass.

Well....

Quote:

Of those 19 plays from 3 yards or in:

• Lynch carried the ball 11 times. He scored touchdowns on five of those carries.

• Wilson carried the ball twice. He scored touchdowns on zone-read plays in which he faked a handoff to Lynch, then pulled the ball back and took off running. He scored untouched both times.

• Wilson and the Seahawks attempted six passing plays. Wilson completed three of five passes and was sacked one other time for a 1-yard loss. He threw two touchdown passes. One went to Robert Turbin out of the backfield for a 3-yard touchdown, the other to tight end Tony Moeaki after faking the handoff to Lynch for a 1-yard touchdown. One of the incompletions was on fourth-and-two against the Chiefs when Wilson floated a pass to Doug Baldwin in the fourth quarter that fell incomplete.

So running the ball from inside the 3, they scored a TD 63% of the time.  Doing that three times works out to about 95%.  Throwing the ball they scored 40% of the time, and were sacked once.  The TDs came on an outlet throw to the RB and a play action.  Both of those would have been better calls.

And there's this, which goes both to the point @saevel25 was trying to make about his YPC in close yardage situations making him a poor runner:

Quote:

Follow

HSAC ‏ @ Harvard_Sports

SEA was second in the league in power situations, getting stuffed just 17% of the time. Lynch converted 17 of 20 3rd/4ths & short this year.

[saevel25]

That is complete nonsense.   I'm not even arguing against Belicheck's non-timeout, but the author must have not seen Brady's first three super bowls or any other game Brady has played.  I can't stand the guy, and I refuse to call him the GOAT simply because of Pete Carroll's called a run play, but I would be terrified of Brady in that situation.  Yeah, he makes his living on 3 yard passes, but I can't tell you how many times I've seen him beat teams with a minute or less on the clock.    Only someone who hasn't watched Tom Brady play would call the chances of him getting into FG range "tiny."  I bet this is something that even @boogielicious and I can agree on.

And what's the nonsense about a literal coin flip to determine the ending?  Does this guy even know that they don't play regular sudden death anymore?

If it is Belichek, who's been in these situations more than most current coaches in the NFL, I wouldn't put it past him.

Would I trust Brady with less than one minute left. Yea I would.  That isn't to say he didn't trust Brady. Maybe Belichek went all Jedi Master on Pete Carroll there. Like watching some old time con artist just play the other guy like a fiddle. I wouldn't put it past Belichek to put it on the line like that.

In the end do you let them score to get the ball back with about 1 minute left. They would have to let them score on that 1st down play to give them the best shot. If you do then you live with that call if Brady fails to do a game winning drive against a defense that has forced the Patriots to average 9 plays, 3 minutes a 45 seconds per TD drive. Patriots did go 80 yards in 8 plays in a 1 min 45 seconds.

THOUGH, New England would only need to get a field goal to tie and go into over time. So there is that option as well. Do you trust Tom Brady to at least go 55 yards when you have one of the best place kickers in the NFL (95% this year with a long of 53 yards in a warm non-windy day)

The other option is, god forbid we think that Belichek happen to forget about the clock in that situation.

I don't know, it is tough to sit there and let a TD happen.

[Golfingdad]

That is complete nonsense.   I'm not even arguing against Belicheck's non-timeout, but the author must have not seen Brady's first three super bowls or any other game Brady has played.  I can't stand the guy, and I refuse to call him the GOAT simply because of Pete Carroll's called a run play, but I would be terrified of Brady in that situation.  Yeah, he makes his living on 3 yard passes, but I can't tell you how many times I've seen him beat teams with a minute or less on the clock.    Only someone who hasn't watched Tom Brady play would call the chances of him getting into FG range "tiny."  I bet this is something that even @boogielicious and I can agree on.

I read somewhere (Bill Simmons probably) that the Pats were really weak this season in long passes and that Seattle was very good at defending the long pass.  Yes, it's still Brady, and he's known for that type of drive, but I think he may have just been saying that it was certainly not "automatic" like in some years past.  "Tiny" probably was too strong of a word.

And what's the nonsense about a literal coin flip to determine the ending?  Does this guy even know that they don't play regular sudden death anymore?

Do you not recall the Seahawks previous game?  That game did, literally and figuratively, come down to a coin flip.

Also, let's not lose sight of what we're (well, I'm) REALLY arguing about here; it's not whether or not the decisions make sense after analyzing them for days and days, but more about whether they make sense (or could have made sense) after analyzing everything during a 10 second adrenaline rush with everything on the line.  You factor that in and you don't acknowledge that both guys acquitted themselves fairly well, then you have awfully high expectations.

And you consider that there are still some of us out here that think those decisions are defensible, then basically by definition, what they did in the moment was, at the very least, acceptable.

[phan52]

Make a point to see the latest episode of "NFL Turning Point". The coaches and QB's are miked and it covers the cat and mouse game that was happening down the stretch of the Super Bowl. It probably won't change anybody's mind about "the play" but it provides pretty good insight. I saw it on NBC Sports Network last night and I am sure they will be showing it a lot in the coming week.

NFL Films is the best.

[dsc123]

Do you not recall the Seahawks previous game?  That game did, literally and figuratively, come down to a coin flip.

No, I checked the score, saw that Green Bay was running away with it and that Seattle didn't have a chance, and decided not to turn the TV on until the Colts/Pats game.

I know it got close, went to overtime and Seattle scored to win it, but how did it come down to a coin flip?

[Golfingdad]

I know it got close, went to overtime and Seattle scored to win it, but how did it come down to a coin flip?

Seattle won the coin flip, went down and scored, game over.  Green Bay (save for their kicker) never touched the ball in the OT, and thus never had an opportunity to score.

Between two evenly matched teams, counting on OT is always going to be a figurative coin flip, but in that case, it was also a literal coin flip.

[boogielicious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

Do you not recall the Seahawks previous game?  That game did, literally and figuratively, come down to a coin flip.

No, I checked the score, saw that Green Bay was running away with it and that Seattle didn't have a chance, and decided not to turn the TV on until the Colts/Pats game.

I know it got close, went to overtime and Seattle scored to win it, but how did it come down to a coin flip?

Ya know Dan, I'm trying to figure out what team you actually cheer for.  You seem more like the "anti-fan" and only talk about teams and players you don't like.  That cannot be fun.

[dsc123]

If it is Belichek, who's been in these situations more than most current coaches in the NFL, I wouldn't put it past him.

Would I trust Brady with less than one minute left. Yea I would.  That isn't to say he didn't trust Brady. Maybe Belichek went all Jedi Master on Pete Carroll there. Like watching some old time con artist just play the other guy like a fiddle. I wouldn't put it past Belichek to put it on the line like that.

In the end do you let them score to get the ball back with about 1 minute left. They would have to let them score on that 1st down play to give them the best shot. If you do then you live with that call if Brady fails to do a game winning drive against a defense that has forced the Patriots to average 9 plays, 3 minutes a 45 seconds per TD drive. Patriots did go 80 yards in 8 plays in a 1 min 45 seconds.

THOUGH, New England would only need to get a field goal to tie and go into over time. So there is that option as well. Do you trust Tom Brady to at least go 55 yards when you have one of the best place kickers in the NFL (95% this year with a long of 53 yards in a warm non-windy day)

The other option is, god forbid we think that Belichek happen to forget about the clock in that situation.

I don't know, it is tough to sit there and let a TD happen.

And this point was raised in the context of Belicheck explaining why he didn't call a time out, right?  He had one time out, right?  So he could have used it after first down, and there would have been 66 seconds left, but a run or two would have gotten the clock down anyway.  Maybe I'm missing the point but I'm not sure why his call was questioned at all.  I don't think you can let walk into the endzone since they needed 5 points.  Maybe if the game was tied and a FG would have gone ahead anyway.  I don't know.

I was thinking of it more from Pete Carroll's perspective, having run all that time off the clock.  I wouldn't want to give Brady the ball because he's so good in those situations, but I wouldn't let it affect which plays I call.  If I wanted to run the ball 3 times I would just do it, I wouldn't let the clock run down and put myself in a position where getting 3 plays off meant I had to pass on one of them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

Seattle won the coin flip, went down and scored, game over.  Green Bay (save for their kicker) never touched the ball in the OT, and thus never had an opportunity to score.

Between two evenly matched teams, counting on OT is always going to be a figurative coin flip, but in that case, it was also a literal coin flip.

Oh, I see.  I guess its better than the old way but still not perfect.

Ya know Dan, I'm trying to figure out what team you actually cheer for.  You seem more like the "anti-fan" and only talk about teams and players you don't like.  That cannot be fun.

Scott, I enjoy critical thinking and discussing topics that interest me with intelligent people who have different opinions.  If you want to pop in every now and then and call me a hater out of the blue that's fine, but I'm not going to waste my time correcting your confusion or defending myself against your strange and illogical comments.

[Golfingdad]

And this point was raised in the context of Belicheck explaining why he didn't call a time out, right?  He had one time out, right?  So he could have used it after first down, and there would have been 66 seconds left, but a run or two would have gotten the clock down anyway.

Actually, at that point, NE had two timeouts remaining.

BTW, FYI to everybody, the NFL channel has been replaying this game a lot - it's worth watching again (unless you are a Seattle fan.) Such a great game.

Oh, I see.  I guess its better than the old way but still not perfect.

The idea with the change was to at least partially eliminate the game coming to a coin flip by not allowing the flip winning team to receive the kick off and drive 30 yards and kick a long field goal and win it.  So it's still sudden-death-ish in that if you earn a TD on that first drive, it's over.  (Once both teams possess the ball then its 100% sudden death)

I'd be perfectly OK with them going NCAA style with the OT, but until that happens, the way it is now ain't too bad.

[dsc123]

Actually, at that point, NE had two timeouts remaining.

Oooh.  That is interesting that he didn't burn the TO's.  But I think he made a good point as to why--liking the match up of his goal line vs their trips.  Perhaps if the seahawks did the sensible thing and gone with a running formation he would have used them.

The idea with the change was to at least partially eliminate the game coming to a coin flip by not allowing the flip winning team to receive the kick off and drive 30 yards and kick a long field goal and win it.  So it's still sudden-death-ish in that if you earn a TD on that first drive, it's over.  (Once both teams possess the ball then its 100% sudden death)

I'd be perfectly OK with them going NCAA style with the OT, but until that happens, the way it is now ain't too bad.

Yeah, I think this is a pretty good solution.  I guess its a bit more traditional than the college system, since the only change is that you get a second chance if the first team with the ball kicks a FG.  Everything else is the same.

[saevel25]

Oooh.  That is interesting that he didn't burn the TO's.  But I think he made a good point as to why--liking the match up of his goal line vs their trips.  Perhaps if the seahawks did the sensible thing and gone with a running formation he would have used them.

What would have been hilarious would be if they actually did run it and Lynch fumbled the ball. Then everyone would be blasting that play call as well.