Presidential Race 2016

[RandallT]

1 hour ago, Braivo said:

The cracks are showing in his campaign. He must shift course to a more Presidential tone very soon. My fear is that he is incapable of this expected shift in tone. If that's the case then he is finished. He will not leave a contested convention with the nomination, no way. 

Here's a way to "game" it out:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

You click the "Follow the experts" button on top first to enter the "538" experts best guess right now.  That results in 50+ delegates short of what he needs to win before the convention. Then hit up or down buttons for each state to try scenarios.

NY and CA will be the story, because there is possibility he could gain a lot there. He also stands to do better than his projection if he can rally in WA state, but that's not likely. Those are the only states I see where he can make a significant dent into those 50+ delegates that he is short right now.

I've been pretty fair to Trump thus far (but did not vote for him in my primary), but I think my earlier projection somewhere in this thread or the Trump thread that he would win during the convention was wrong. I thought he knew how to close deals, so at the convention he would be in his element. Obviously, forces are now arrayed against him pretty firmly. I don't see how he stands a chance now if he doesn't win it outright before the convention.

Trump made a mess of things this week, and his balloon seems burst. The whole bash Heidi Cruz thing. That was big for me. His abortion statement with Chris Matthews popped a bubble for me that I thought he was fearless against the media in calling BS on stupid questions. He could've easily swatted that away since abortion seems to be like item 99 of 100 on his plate. He looked unprepared and uninformed. Plus his statement about holding remittances as a bit of ransom for paying for the wall seems to heavy-handed for the federal government to do via executive order. It all seems like the campaign is fraying quite significantly.

I think the Republicans just might be cooked this cycle. I don't see any path forward for unity, regardless of who they nominate. Maybe a protest vote for me this year: Gary Johnson. All of these candidates have fatal flaws, frankly.

It's a tad intellectual and will NEVER appeal broadly, but I found it a decent discussion here of "classic liberalism" v "libertarianism" here.

Dave Rubin, the host, used to be in The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Many of his fans are Bernie supporters (see 7:15 mark in the interview).  But Dave seems to have drifted from the progressive side of things, I believe, and now considers himself more of a "classic liberal." He seems to be a bit cozy with Gary Johnson here. Libertarians never do well electorally, but I do find the message less corrupted than I find either of the major parties.

Bernie supporters will enjoy the part after 7:15, possibly.

 

 

[Gunther]

Kasich has no shot in the GE, absolutely none.  Fully 40% of Republicans will simply not show up to vote if a guy with 10% of the delegates ends up winning the nomination.  The reason he hasn't received popular support is because he is left of even McCain and Romney.  Hell, he might be a little left of Hillary.  He's unelectable as a Republican right now.

I'm pretty sure the Republican establishment is aware of this and would be more than happy to have Clinton win.  It would give them a "purpose" and allow them to continue to get rich hammering on her, while letting her have everything she wants, as they've done for the past 8 years.

[Mr. Desmond]

11 minutes ago, Gunther said:

Kasich has no shot in the GE, absolutely none.  Fully 40% of Republicans will simply not show up to vote if a guy with 10% of the delegates ends up winning the nomination.  The reason he hasn't received popular support is because he is left of even McCain and Romney.  Hell, he might be a little left of Hillary.  He's unelectable as a Republican right now.

I'm pretty sure the Republican establishment is aware of this and would be more than happy to have Clinton win.  It would give them a "purpose" and allow them to continue to get rich hammering on her, while letting her have everything she wants, as they've done for the past 8 years.

Wow... that's all I can legally say.

I think you'd have Dems crossing over for Kasich. If a brokered convention, there are splinters and you have a couple of months for them to heal, but with the current state of the GOP, I don't know if healing is possible. I mean they've controlled Congress and still can't get their own caucus aligned for simple GOP stuff like a reformed tax code or building infrastructure - business stuff.

[StevenR84]

Kasich would get crossovers I believe, as he would get my vote over Hillary. The other thing that seems to be sliding under the radar a little is that people keep talking about Bernie wouldn't get anything done with the current congress and they are correct on that. However, a vast majority of that congress would be up for re-election during his first term so there is plenty of opportunity for him to accomplish things if he gets in.

[nevets88]

Beating a dead horse and posted this before but the just a commentary on the press coverage. They have no bloody clue.

[nevets88]

Don't you touch my fries!

 

 

[Mr. Desmond]

1 hour ago, nevets88 said:

Don't you touch my fries!

 

 

Bern: Now, Donald, listen to me now before we get started. It's free fries for me; 200% of the fries price for you, and you pick up the tip just because that's what 1% er's do. That's freedom fries socialism - mine are free, yours are socialized.

Donald: Did I ever tell you about my socialist wall? You're outta here.

Bern: Donald, really, how many walls are you going to build?

Donald: Whatever it takes to make America great again. Great walls make great neighbors.

Bern: Seriously?

Edited April 7, 2016 by Mr. Desmond

[rkim291968]

17 hours ago, Braivo said:

As a Trump supporter from the beginning I will say this is true. The cracks are showing in his campaign. He must shift course to a more Presidential tone very soon. My fear is that he is incapable of this expected shift in tone.

He is not capable.   He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder which is impossible to change.   People who have it won't/can't even acknowledge they have it.   His "action" will be driven by this personality's shortcomings.   Hence, I don't think he qualifies to be the POTUS.    Do me a favor if you will, @Braivo.   Please look up Narcissistic Personality Disorder.   You will understand Trump's behavior pattern much better.   E.g, one of NPD's traits is that the person with NPD cannot take rejection.   If he believes someone rejected him (whether it is true or not), he goes crazy and must get back at the person.   This should explain his weird behavior toward Megyn Kelly.   He can't let her go b/c he believes she rejected him.  Most of us are narcissistic to certain degree but Trump's goes way beyond being normal.   And that will dictate his behavior if he ever becomes the POTUS.  That's the scary thought.   Imagine if he believes Putin rejected him.  He's likely to try to get at Putin no matter what it takes.   Putin being an A-hole that he is, Russia & US relationship will take a turn for the worse.  

[Mr. Desmond]

54 minutes ago, rkim291968 said:

He is not capable.   He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder which is impossible to change.   People who have it won't/can't even acknowledge they have it.   His "action" will be driven by this personality's shortcomings.   Hence, I don't think he qualifies to be the POTUS.    Do me a favor if you will, @Braivo.   Please look up Narcissistic Personality Disorder.   You will understand Trump's behavior pattern much better.   E.g, one of NPD's traits is that the person with NPD cannot take rejection.   If he believes someone rejected him (whether it is true or not), he goes crazy and must get back at the person.   This should explain his weird behavior toward Megyn Kelly.   He can't let her go b/c he believes she rejected him.  Most of us are narcissistic to certain degree but Trump's goes way beyond being normal.   And that will dictate his behavior if he ever becomes the POTUS.  That's the scary thought.   Imagine if he believes Putin rejected him.  He's likely to try to get at Putin no matter what it takes.   Putin being an A-hole that he is, Russia & US relationship will take a turn for the worse.  

Good summary... I see a high degree of these traits frequently with entrepreneurs. While many are not NPC, the have more of that character than "normal" (what is normal?) individuals.

Trump brings up a lot of issues that most of us have wondered about - Why don't we reform VA? What are the effect of trade agreements? What is a solution to immigration? Why are Islamic jihadists so crazy to us (Donald: "What's going on here?) Why are corporations leaving (tax reform)? Why can't we impose our will on others? (okay, that's a Donald thing). Why are we supporting Japan and N. Korea, let them develop their own nukes ... okay, I've wondered why we spend so much money in W Europe and Korea, but the nuke deal, that's uniquely irresponsible Donald . Hell, let's just start a nuke arms race when we are trying to reduce all nukes. Just shows that the guy just spouts out his musings from the top of his gray matter.

But a President does not spout, he is thoughtful and nuanced. Because all of these questions have an effect that go beyond our borders and we need to reflect on how other countries will react to what we do. And since countries are like people, they will act in their self-interest, and all hell will break loose if Donald's musings are enacted.

It's as if Donald hasn't though this through. It's as if he raises these questions on the fly and formulates an answer in the same way ( of course, the answer is you need Donald's simplistic solutions and his hard bargaining). Donald, it seems, is a concerned American, like the rest of us, but he is not ready and he does not have the temperament for the job.

A guy who is running for President has already researched, thought about, studied, and has well tought out, nuanced, and strategic real world solutions to the above issues. Haven't seen that with Donald. Haven't seen that with several other candidates either. But Donald is just outrageous and outrageous and shocking draws attention.

Edited April 7, 2016 by Mr. Desmond

[Braivo]

6 hours ago, rkim291968 said:

He is not capable.   He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder which is impossible to change.   People who have it won't/can't even acknowledge they have it.   His "action" will be driven by this personality's shortcomings.   Hence, I don't think he qualifies to be the POTUS.    Do me a favor if you will, @Braivo.   Please look up Narcissistic Personality Disorder.   You will understand Trump's behavior pattern much better.   E.g, one of NPD's traits is that the person with NPD cannot take rejection.   If he believes someone rejected him (whether it is true or not), he goes crazy and must get back at the person.   This should explain his weird behavior toward Megyn Kelly.   He can't let her go b/c he believes she rejected him.  Most of us are narcissistic to certain degree but Trump's goes way beyond being normal.   And that will dictate his behavior if he ever becomes the POTUS.  That's the scary thought.   Imagine if he believes Putin rejected him.  He's likely to try to get at Putin no matter what it takes.   Putin being an A-hole that he is, Russia & US relationship will take a turn for the worse.  

Yes, I am well aware of NPD. I agree with pretty much everything you have said here. I think an above average amount of narcissism is necessary for the Presidency, but I am now realizing that perhaps Donald has too much. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt for a long time because I thought he was capable of pivoting. It is becoming more and more clear that he is not capable. This disappoints me. 

5 hours ago, Mr. Desmond said:

Good summary... I see a high degree of these traits frequently with entrepreneurs. While many are not NPC, the have more of that character than "normal" (what is normal?) individuals.

Trump brings up a lot of issues that most of us have wondered about - Why don't we reform VA? What are the effect of trade agreements? What is a solution to immigration? Why are Islamic jihadists so crazy to us (Donald: "What's going on here?) Why are corporations leaving (tax reform)? Why can't we impose our will on others? (okay, that's a Donald thing). Why are we supporting Japan and N. Korea, let them develop their own nukes ... okay, I've wondered why we spend so much money in W Europe and Korea, but the nuke deal, that's uniquely irresponsible Donald . Hell, let's just start a nuke arms race when we are trying to reduce all nukes. Just shows that the guy just spouts out his musings from the top of his gray matter.

But a President does not spout, he is thoughtful and nuanced. Because all of these questions have an effect that go beyond our borders and we need to reflect on how other countries will react to what we do. And since countries are like people, they will act in their self-interest, and all hell will break loose if Donald's musings are enacted.

It's as if Donald hasn't though this through. It's as if he raises these questions on the fly and formulates an answer in the same way ( of course, the answer is you need Donald's simplistic solutions and his hard bargaining). Donald, it seems, is a concerned American, like the rest of us, but he is not ready and he does not have the temperament for the job.

A guy who is running for President has already researched, thought about, studied, and has well tought out, nuanced, and strategic real world solutions to the above issues. Haven't seen that with Donald. Haven't seen that with several other candidates either. But Donald is just outrageous and outrageous and shocking draws attention.

This has long been an issue with the Presidents we choose. None have both the strength to move difficult policies forward combined with the humility necessary to understand them and ask for help from outsiders in doing so. 

[RandallT]

19 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Yes, I am well aware of NPD. I agree with pretty much everything you have said here. I think an above average amount of narcissism is necessary for the Presidency, but I am now realizing that perhaps Donald has too much. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt for a long time because I thought he was capable of pivoting. It is becoming more and more clear that he is not capable. This disappoints me. 

Well said. Even though Trump didn't get my vote in my primary, I still though he would win the nomination, and I had some hopes the Trump could pivot toward a more presidential demeanor, and while I was suspect of his outrageous behavior, I thought that his success in business surely meant that this was all an act to make a splash. Surely, he'd settle down his controversial statements and start winning over his opposition with charm and finesse on the issues.

For example, I could've seen Trump going into the heart of the opposition (immigrant communities, minority communities, etc) and winning them over despite the media onslaught. I thought he'd have the ability to bypass the media and craft some sort of brash appeal that worked, since he has that kind of charisma and chutzpah. He does have a charm about him despite his outrageousness that might've been crazy enough to work with minorities- if he could demonstrate why his policies would work for them. But no, he seemed to hole himself up in his mass rallies and behind is twitter handle, spouting more of the same vindictive stuff. He never really pivoted anywhere.

Like you, I badly want someone outside the "establishment" to rock our politics to the core. He was never the guy I pinned my hopes on, but Trump seemed to show flashes of that strength we admire, even if it came with the narcissism.  The last few weeks have mostly extinguished any thought that Trump is viable. The rest of the Republican nomination process will be a rollercoaster ride, I think. Trump will get close numerically, but the establishment seems more and more likely to deny him the nomination- probably wise for the country.

[Fourputt]

40 minutes ago, RandallT said:

Well said. Even though Trump didn't get my vote in my primary, I still though he would win the nomination, and I had some hopes the Trump could pivot toward a more presidential demeanor, and while I was suspect of his outrageous behavior, I thought that his success in business surely meant that this was all an act to make a splash. Surely, he'd settle down his controversial statements and start winning over his opposition with charm and finesse on the issues.

For example, I could've seen Trump going into the heart of the opposition (immigrant communities, minority communities, etc) and winning them over despite the media onslaught. I thought he'd have the ability to bypass the media and craft some sort of brash appeal that worked, since he has that kind of charisma and chutzpah. He does have a charm about him despite his outrageousness that might've been crazy enough to work with minorities- if he could demonstrate why his policies would work for them. But no, he seemed to hole himself up in his mass rallies and behind is twitter handle, spouting more of the same vindictive stuff. He never really pivoted anywhere.

Like you, I badly want someone outside the "establishment" to rock our politics to the core. He was never the guy I pinned my hopes on, but Trump seemed to show flashes of that strength we admire, even if it came with the narcissism.  The last few weeks have mostly extinguished any thought that Trump is viable. The rest of the Republican nomination process will be a rollercoaster ride, I think. Trump will get close numerically, but the establishment seems more and more likely to deny him the nomination- probably wise for the country.

I agree with most of what you said.  I was never firmly in his camp, but he seemed like the best shot from a weak selection.  Now it's mostly up for grabs, and I really don't have a good opinion on any horse in this race.  I'm starting to fall back into my usual election year frustration with status quo.  Despite some very different candidates showing strength (i.e. Trump and Sanders), I have a bad feeling that we are back to looking at more of the same.

[rkim291968]

4 hours ago, RandallT said:

 

For example, I could've seen Trump going into the heart of the opposition (immigrant communities, minority communities, etc) and winning them over despite the media onslaught. I thought he'd have the ability to bypass the media and craft some sort of brash appeal that worked, since he has that kind of charisma and chutzpah. He does have a charm about him despite his outrageousness that might've been crazy enough to work with minorities- if he could demonstrate why his policies would work for them. But no, he seemed to hole himself up in his mass rallies and behind is twitter handle, spouting more of the same vindictive stuff. He never really pivoted anywhere.

It's his way or highway for Trump, and always will be.  This works for running a company he owns but not for the US (owned by all of us), or GOP for that matter. 

 

The big suspense (at least to me) now is how much support he will get from New York, his hometown.  The result may show whether the momentum has really shifted Cruz or not.  The other suspense is how long Kasich will hang around.  

 

 

 

[Elmer]

On 4/6/2016 at 10:30 AM, Dave2512 said:

Ted is creepy no doubt. He's got the neighbor that peeks through the curtains vibe. 

Ted is the guy in the bushes, gazing at the guy peeking through the curtains!

On 4/6/2016 at 10:33 AM, StevenR84 said:

Which i think is hilarious when they start talking about religion and then how socialism is such a terrible thing. I may be wrong but that Jesus guy was a scoialist jew, kind of like someone else...(this is not say that Bernie is Jesus, just a similarity)

This is what has baffled me about many in the GOP and some Dems, who make sure to make their faith well known.
As someone who is a student of history and not a big believer in Jebus, I have read a lot of what he "supposedly" said.
That being said I have always felt if Jebus came back
1- he would be Jewish (born, raised & died Jewish)
2-would be really liberal & rub the GOP the wrong way (probably some Dems as well)
 

so I have said it to my more religious friends, what if Jebus came back and he is Bernie Sanders?
What if this is the Last Judgment?

So once again I am surprised that Cruz (not so much Trump) would not open his arms to the poor or immigrants. I am surprised that they don't want to allow them in, cloth them, protect them, feed them and wash their feet!

"If you want to be perfect, go, sell your possessions and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me."- ‎Matthew 19:21

[Jeremie Boop]

9 minutes ago, Elmer said:

Ted is the guy in the bushes, gazing at the guy peeking through the curtains!

This is what has baffled me about many in the GOP and some Dems, who make sure to make their faith well known.
As someone who is a student of history and not a big believer in Jebus, I have read a lot of what he "supposedly" said.
That being said I have always felt if Jebus came back
1- he would be Jewish (born, raised & died Jewish)
2-would be really liberal & rub the GOP the wrong way (probably some Dems as well)
 

so I have said it to my more religious friends, what if Jebus came back and he is Bernie Sanders?
What if this is the Last Judgment?

So once again I am surprised that Cruz (not so much Trump) would not open his arms to the poor or immigrants. I am surprised that they don't want to allow them in, cloth them, protect them, feed them and wash their feet!

"If you want to be perfect, go, sell your possessions and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me."- ‎Matthew 19:21

"Jebus" really?

[StevenR84]

1 minute ago, Jeremie Boop said:

"Jebus" really?

I mean, he's not real anyway so does his name matter? The rest of the post is solid and that's what you took away from it?

[Golfingdad]

5 hours ago, RandallT said:

...I could've seen Trump going into the heart of the opposition (immigrant communities, minority communities, etc) and winning them over despite the media onslaught.

As long as by "media onslaught" you mean that the media simply had cameras and microphones and pressed the power buttons and pointed them in his direction.

[Jeremie Boop]

Just now, StevenR84 said:

I mean, he's not real anyway so does his name matter? The rest of the post is solid and that's what you took away from it?

Because not using the actual name detracts from the message trying to be delivered. A lot of people believe that Jesus was/is real and by using a different name than that is disrespectful. And, it's not the first time that he's used a different name when referring to someone. So, yeah, that's what I took away from it.