RNC

[Braivo]

Allow me to repeat my prediction that I made in September of 2015:

Donald Trump will win this election in a landslide.

I am looking forward to his speech tonight, I have the feeling it will be a good one. There hasn't been this much energy at a RNC in decades. 

[mcanadiens]

15 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Allow me to repeat my prediction that I made in September of 2015:

Donald Trump will win this election in a landslide.

I am looking forward to his speech tonight, I have the feeling it will be a good one. There hasn't been this much energy at a RNC in decades. 

His recent comments on NATO isn't helping.

 

[Elmer]

12 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Allow me to repeat my prediction that I made in September of 2015:

Donald Trump will win this election in a landslide.

I am looking forward to his speech tonight, I have the feeling it will be a good one. There hasn't been this much energy at a RNC in decades. 

@Braivo, I would put money against your prediction.
Of course you would need to define "landslide"?
If you click the link below and look at the map Trump is sitting at 191 EC votes from solid republican states, Hillary has 236.
Even is Trump Wins Florida, PA & Ohio he will be at 258. In other words he needs to win most if not all the battle ground states. The last 2 elections PA-FL & Ohio have gone to the Democrats.
Further remember that people also said Romney was going to win in a landslide.
But seriously check out the map, very insightful!
http://www.cnn.com/election/interactive-electoral-college-map/

[WUTiger]

One thing to consider is the electoral votes of California (55) and Texas (38). Early polls show Clinton ahead of Trump in double figures in California. So, even if Texas goes Republican, that means Trump starts out 17 electoral votes behind - just from the two largest states.

Another factor for the RNC (and DNC) to consider:

What will be the impact of the Libertarian ticket, featuring two former Republican governors of majority Democratic states, who did pretty well "working across the aisle." Gary Johnson of New Mexico and William Weld of Massachusetts have reputations for being economically conservative, and moderate on social issues.

The WSJ has some interesting comments on the Libertarian Alternative.

[Chilli Dipper]

52 minutes ago, WUTiger said:

What will be the impact of the Libertarian ticket, featuring two former Republican governors of majority Democratic states, who did pretty well "working across the aisle." Gary Johnson of New Mexico and William Weld of Massachusetts have reputations for being economically conservative, and moderate on social issues.

The WSJ has some interesting comments on the Libertarian Alternative.

I don't think a third-party candidate is going to play spoiler in the presidential race. What I do think is: if Trump's poll numbers crater coming out of the conventions to landslide territory, you will see some prominent Republicans endorse Johnson in an effort to lose GOP losses down the ballot. I sense there is a sizable number of voters who usually vote Republican, but can't stand Trump; if it looks like Trump is going to lose, those voters will stay home, and the Republicans will lose Congress along with the White House. If a movement to present Johnson as a suitable protest candidate to those voters can gain traction, a 56-42 Hillary victory that gives the Dems a majority in both houses could turn into a 48-39-11 Hillary victory that keeps Congress red for the next two years.

[saevel25]

14 hours ago, Chilli Dipper said:

if it looks like Trump is going to lose, those voters will stay home, the Republicans will lose Congress along with the White House. If a movement to present Johnson as a suitable protest candidate to those voters can gain traction, a 56-42 Hillary victory that gives the Dems a majority in both houses could turn into a 48-39-11 Hillary victory that keeps Congress red for the next two years.

 

Spoiler

 

I would say the Senate results are more based on the general election turn out versus the House. In the end a good number of seats in the House are safe on both sides because of gerrymandering. 

As of right now the Senate might end up being split. Most analysis have the GOP at 47 to the Dem's 47 with 6 toss-up states. The GOP is ahead in nearly all of those toss-up states. Those toss-up states are Ohio, Indiana, Florida, PA and Nevada. All battle ground states for this election. I could see turnout higher in those states than in others because that is where the campaigns are going to focus. 

Right now the GOP has a strangle hold on the House. Even if the lose all of the toss-up seats they will still have a majority in the house. Who ever is president is most likely going to have to deal with a GOP controlled congress. Though it's not a large enough margin to get a super majority vote passed. 

 

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Play by play from fivethirtyeight,

 http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/gop-convention-day-four-election-2016/

 

[Chilli Dipper]

36 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

 

  Hide contents

 

I would say the Senate results are more based on the general election turn out versus the House. In the end a good number of seats in the House are safe on both sides because of gerrymandering. 

As of right now the Senate might end up being split. Most analysis have the GOP at 47 to the Dem's 47 with 6 toss-up states. The GOP is ahead in nearly all of those toss-up states. Those toss-up states are Ohio, Indiana, Florida, PA and Nevada. All battle ground states for this election. I could see turnout higher in those states than in others because that is where the campaigns are going to focus. 

Right now the GOP has a strangle hold on the House. Even if the lose all of the toss-up seats they will still have a majority in the house. Who ever is president is most likely going to have to deal with a GOP controlled congress. Though it's not a large enough margin to get a super majority vote passed. 

 

---

Play by play from fivethirtyeight,

 http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/gop-convention-day-four-election-2016/

 

The tipping points are much closer than that. If Hillary wins a majority of the popular vote, the Democrats will pick up the four seats they need to flip the Senate blue. The House should be safe, but if the national margin of victory in the presidential race reaches double digits, nothing is out of play.

[Braivo]

Anyone else catch DJT's speech last night? Powerful. "I'm with you!" was plastered on the front page of many newspapers this morning, that is a very powerful message. 

[Gunther]

47 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Anyone else catch DJT's speech last night? Powerful. "I'm with you!" was plastered on the front page of many newspapers this morning, that is a very powerful message. 

He hit on all the key points, impactful.  Maybe now people will realize that he's actually a Democrat, but in JFK's mold in that he loves his country and understands what issues confront us.  I don't mind voting for a Dem like that.

Dunno the science behind the surveys here but you know it pained CNN to show these results.

 

[Elmer]

41 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Anyone else catch DJT's speech last night? Powerful. "I'm with you!" was plastered on the front page of many newspapers this morning, that is a very powerful message. 

After that speech last night I was not sure the sun was going to rise this morning. I was unsure of how bad America had become. However, as always the sun came up an everything is as usual. 
I agree with Nate Silver that last nights speech is either going to "famous or infamous for many years to come".

Another good point by Silver "The other risk of Trump’s strategy, of course, is that it comes with too low a ceiling, in terms of the number of voters he can potentially persuade to his cause. As I wrote this morning, there are fewer “real Americans” than you might think." 

I laughed when he tried to appeal to the LGBT community. first off his VP, mike pence still believes in conversion therapy!
Secondly of those I know in the community, they would not aline themselves with the GOP if Trump was handing out $100 bills and free Madonna concert tickets.

To approach his speech from a positive perspective, it had many catchy slogans "I am with you" & "yes you will". Great slogans that will look good on the front lawns and t-shirts of his followers!
That brings us to the negative aspect of the speech
Many, many people on twitter continued to ask "how"?

How do you intend to have a massive tax cut, build a wall and provide veterans with the best healthcare?
Where does the money for that come from? Will conservatives back cuts and spending plans that are going to add to the debt?

I am interested to see how the Dems respond and moving forward the debates between Hillary and Trump should be interesting to say the least!

 

[newtogolf]

Trump may be running on the GOP ticket but he's much more moderate and maybe even liberal with regards to social issues which is good by me.  My wife wanted to watch his speech last night so I joined her.  I was impressed, not because he's a great orator or because I believed every word he said but because of the energy he generated in the crowd and within myself regarding our country.  

For the last 8 years we've had a POTUS who believed in globalism, Obama wanted all the other countries to love us and in order to do that he had to diminish the strong pride we felt for our country.  He traveled to other countries, bowed to other leaders, apologized for past actions and made us all feel bad for believing America was the best country in the world.  The sense of national pride has been at an all time low under Obama and it shows in all facets of our country.  Too many people have given up because they don't believe America is still the greatest country and the land of opportunity.  

No offense to fellow members reading this from other countries, but the United States is the greatest country in the world and if I didn't believe in it, I'd leave it.  All of you from other countries should also believe your home country is the greatest, without strong national pride you cannot have a country that thrives and prospers.

I believe Trump will restore our national pride, he will put America first and if that upsets some other world leaders, too bad.  

 

[Braivo]

1 hour ago, Gunther said:

He hit on all the key points, impactful.  Maybe now people will realize that he's actually a Democrat, but in JFK's mold in that he loves his country and understands what issues confront us.  I don't mind voting for a Dem like that.

Dunno the science behind the surveys here but you know it pained CNN to show these results.

 

For a left leaning station like CNN these are big numbers. He even made some pretty far left statements regarding social issues and got large applause from the GOP audience. That shift to the left all but seals it for Trump now. If he stays on message and continues this presidential look (which I predicted he would, all of those "mistakes" he made have faded from everyone's memory) this will be a massive victory in November. 

1 hour ago, Elmer said:

After that speech last night I was not sure the sun was going to rise this morning. I was unsure of how bad America had become. However, as always the sun came up an everything is as usual. 
I agree with Nate Silver that last nights speech is either going to "famous or infamous for many years to come".

Another good point by Silver "The other risk of Trump’s strategy, of course, is that it comes with too low a ceiling, in terms of the number of voters he can potentially persuade to his cause. As I wrote this morning, there are fewer “real Americans” than you might think." 

I laughed when he tried to appeal to the LGBT community. first off his VP, mike pence still believes in conversion therapy!
Secondly of those I know in the community, they would not aline themselves with the GOP if Trump was handing out $100 bills and free Madonna concert tickets.

To approach his speech from a positive perspective, it had many catchy slogans "I am with you" & "yes you will". Great slogans that will look good on the front lawns and t-shirts of his followers!
That brings us to the negative aspect of the speech
Many, many people on twitter continued to ask "how"?

How do you intend to have a massive tax cut, build a wall and provide veterans with the best healthcare?
Where does the money for that come from? Will conservatives back cuts and spending plans that are going to add to the debt?

I am interested to see how the Dems respond and moving forward the debates between Hillary and Trump should be interesting to say the least!

 

Nate Silver has been wrong about Trump since day 1. Nate's models cannot predict the black swan that is DJT. Even now Nate is changing his models to show Trump with more and more of a chance, over 40% now I think. I think once being a "real American" becomes acceptable you will see many more "real Americans" surfacing. 

Elections are won on emotion. Fear and hope. People want to be entertained and Trump understands that. Notice how he puts his beautiful family out there as often as he can? Aesthetics. People love that stuff, they'll be talked about the way people talk of the royal family, they won't be able to get enough. 

Trump is not trying to get the votes of the LGBTQ community, but he is trying to get the votes of moderates who are sympathetic to their cause. He has said enough to prove that he is not going set that community back in any way, and that is enough for a left-leaning soccer mom (the big swing voters) to vote for him with a clear conscience. 

[newtogolf]

22 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Trump is not trying to get the votes of the LGBTQ community, but he is trying to get the votes of moderates who are sympathetic to their cause. He has said enough to prove that he is not going set that community back in any way, and that is enough for a left-leaning soccer mom (the big swing voters) to vote for him with a clear conscience. 

Beyond electing the first woman POTUS, no one is excited about what HRC brings to the table.  She will be a 4 year extension to Obama, she will continue to force this bad healthcare system down our throats, weaken our national position in favor of globalism, go after the 2A, promote political correctness and welcome more potential terrorists into our country.  

Trump is offering something different than what we've had for the last 8 years, maybe even the last 16 years. His speech demonstrates that he's not the social conservative that Cruz is and while Pence is more socially conservative I doubt he'd take the VP job if his personal beliefs were that far out of alignment with Trumps.  

A talking head on Fox put it best, HRC has a public political record as First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State, Trump does not so more value will be given to what he says in the next four months than HRC.  If Trump keeps his message on point and avoids his free style rambles that get him into trouble he should be the next POTUS.  

[saevel25]

28 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

Beyond electing the first woman POTUS, no one is excited about what HRC brings to the table.  She will be a 4 year extension to Obama, 

I'm not sure that hurts HRC. People think this country is going in the wrong direction, but the presidents job approval is on the positive side. 

[DrvFrShow]

God, that was scary last night. 

Republican Party: how far you have fallen.

[boogielicious]

39 minutes ago, DrvFrShow said:

God, that was scary last night. 

Republican Party: how far you have fallen.

In the late 40s and 50s, the Dixiecrats (which were similar to the Tea Party, were Democrats (Strom Thurmon, etc.). They switched parties after Kennedy was elected due to the Civil Right movement.

[Dave2512]

Interesting to see the different perspectives about his speech, here and in the media. I thought it was flat, even through the fear mongering parts. I had that ready to pass out after Thanksgiving dinner feeling. I watched a bunch of news after it and reviews were mixed. Some of his usual media supporters that were pumped up pre speech mentioned they wished he was more upbeat like Ivanka when commenting on the heavy doom and gloom sections. I don't think anything he said hurts or helps him it was just kind of blah.

Though I am surprised more of the I vote for a party types weren't put off by how far left he veered at times. He really is a democrat in disguise. I wouldn't be surprised if he chose to run as a republican for no other reason than he knew that would be his best chance to make it through the primaries.

But I don't share his opinions that the US is on the precipice of a cliff. Things could be better, you can say that even when things are pretty good. As I watched it I saw a neighbor ride by on a $4000 Yeti bike. Another pulled up to the mailboxes in a $70000 truck and as usual lots of families walking down the path to the side of my house in our calm cul-de-sac. Myself I was trying not to let my $12 sandwich from the boutique mom and pop should in town drip oil and vinegar on my $3000 Younger sofa.

[Braivo]

5 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

But I don't share his opinions that the US is on the precipice of a cliff. Things could be better, you can say that even when things are pretty good. As I watched it I saw a neighbor ride by on a $4000 Yeti bike. Another pulled up to the mailboxes in a $70000 truck and as usual lots of families walking down the path to the side of my house in our calm cul-de-sac. Myself I was trying not to let my $12 sandwich from the boutique mom and pop should in town drip oil and vinegar on my $3000 Younger sofa.

Life is good for you (and I) right now, but for many it is not. We are often sheltered from the real problems until they reach our doorstep. What goes largely unnoticed is that a wide gap has formed between the haves (you and I) and the have nots. This divide has grown rather than closed during 8 years of Obama. 

Many of those that have it good, like those in that convention last night, also recognize the prevalance of threats that could easily derail their comfortable lives. Trump's speech was dark because he sees the real threats we face, he knows the people that profit from what is happening in this country right now.