You have one shot and must succeed. What would it be?

[Rainmaker 148]

51 minutes ago, Lihu said:

I think statistically, the 7i sounds like the easiest shot for me. Or at least possibly on the fringe? Of course, what you mean by a 7i shot is possibly different than what I mean?

IDK, for me a 9i would be a decent approach shot. 7i is getting iffy on hitting a green. So, that's why I added on the fringe or possibly even just nearby?

Ha - I was thinking exactly the same thing about the 7i approach.  7i to the "general vicinity" is money for me, lol.  

[Ernest Jones 1,015]

I'll take the putt everyday and twice on Sundays.

[paininthenuts 71]

On 11/22/2016 at 11:49 PM, phillyk said:

100yd is my most comfortable distance.  A nice 3/4 52* wedge.  Next would be the 7-rion, but for me that's 180yds, so a few more factors are in play there.

God, you must whack the ball hard. I can only just reach 180 with a 4 wood

[Lihu 751]

On 11/22/2016 at 3:49 PM, phillyk said:

100yd is my most comfortable distance.  A nice 3/4 52* wedge.

This is about right for me as well, but my accuracy is really bad. So, no way. I think I can consistently get a 15 yard "radius", but no way within 6 yards and stick every time. I just don't pin fast enough. A full swing 56 would get there as well, but once again I might be lucky to get a 10 yard "radius".

 

51 minutes ago, paininthenuts said:

Quote

Next would be the 7-rion, but for me that's 180yds, so a few more factors are in play there.

God, you must whack the ball hard. I can only just reach 180 with a 4 wood

Most A flight players could hit their 7i that far, which is why they are scratch or better.

 

11 hours ago, Rainmaker said:

Ha - I was thinking exactly the same thing about the 7i approach.  7i to the "general vicinity" is money for me, lol.  

Yeah, most people don't really know how far off are their shots. You're probably tracking your shots better than most.

General vicinity for anything longer than a 9i, and wedges are something like 15-20 yards. I think even my 60 has a spread of 8 or more yards. I might get 5 shots within 5-6 yards then a bunch way out there, then the average ends up being something like 10. On the range, I can get it pretty tight, but that's hitting ball after ball on a mat etc.

In my humble opinion, if you could do any one of the 100 yard plus items in the list, then you likely could do all of those items in the list. You would likely be scratch or close to it.

IDK what my contribution could be? I'm guessing my 150 yard approach shot would be my best asset at this point, but I wouldn't hit "somewhere on the green" every time. So, nothing really would be a must succeed. Couldn't do it. . .

[jacobo 1]

For me it would definitely be a 7 iron into the green. A 175-115 yard shot seems to be my ideal shot into a green as I can't really hit a 100 yard shot all that well so I'll take my chances with a seven iron. 

[David in FL 2,551]

It's interesting that so many think that they have their best chance hitting the green with a 7-iron.  @iacas, do you have any stats for the average amateur doing so?  It's gotta be well under 50%, no?

[JonMA1 510]

I know the previous question wasn't directed at me, but here are the stats on why the 7i seems to be the best choice...

Gap Wedge is my 100yd club. Those within 18' are far below 50%:

 

7i - 56% inside a 15yd radius (green-sized area?):

 

Driver - 55% of fairways hit

[Lihu 751]

On 11/24/2016 at 7:57 AM, David in FL said:

It's interesting that so many think that they have their best chance hitting the green with a 7-iron.  @iacas, do you have any stats for the average amateur doing so?  It's gotta be well under 50%, no?

Guessing most people use a 7i for 160 yards, so seems to be well under 50% that get in as you guessed.

From my experience, even longer hitters will have about the same dispersion with a shorter club. I think it's all about how accurately they hit the center of the face? In any case, I rarely see people making a 160 yard approach even 50% of the time. When they do, it's usually some really old golfer with a 3W on their 3rd shot

 

http://blog.trackmangolf.com/performance-of-the-average-male-amateur/

 

[JonMA1 510]

8 hours ago, Lihu said:

Guessing most people use a 7i for 160 yards, so seems to be well under 50% that get in as you guessed.

Is that guess based on what you've observed or Trackman data? I read once where the average distance from a 7i is 150 (adult males). If true, you'd never know it going by the internet claims 

My "stock" distance to a green is 140 with a 7i - and that's total distance. So while longer hitters are using a 9i or even a PW for their approach, I'm using a 7i. 

To hit 160 I have to use at least a 5i. My percentage of GIR with that club drops to 40%.

[Strandly 34]

Kind of a toss up between the driver, 7i, and the 100 yard wedge.  I went with the 7i.

[alleztom 37]

Driver for me. Easiest one to back off and just hit it solid. Might only go 190 yards instead of 240, but I'll hit the fairway with a little cut.

[Lihu 751]

16 hours ago, JonMA1 said:

Is that guess based on what you've observed or Trackman data? I read once where the average distance from a 7i is 150 (adult males). If true, you'd never know it going by the internet claims 

My "stock" distance to a green is 140 with a 7i - and that's total distance. So while longer hitters are using a 9i or even a PW for their approach, I'm using a 7i. 

To hit 160 I have to use at least a 5i. My percentage of GIR with that club drops to 40%.

Guessing based upon the Trackman data?

My GG GIR percentage from my "7i distance"*** is better than what I thought, but nowhere near a "must" condition. I would say that a must condition for the 7i would be better than 90%.

So, that's why I answered nothing is possible for me as a "must" condition. I really think that if a person could do any of the 100 plus yard items with >90% chance, they're probably capable of all of them and likely a scratch or better golfer. I could be totally wrong about this, but that's my general feeling.

 

***Not usually using a 7i from those distances, but my 7i is so inconsistent that I don't use it for approaches unless forced to or need some height to get over trees. Actually, anything above 8i is pretty terrible.

http://www.gamegolf.com/player/lihu/insights/approach-the-green/share/0f0dc44848

[cipher 532]

The putt, it's the only shot I could actually even make and attempt to do.  

[GolfLug 593]

I picked 7i anywhere on the green from 160 y out since it has the largest margin of error from the choices. Wedge within 18 feet from 100 y is slightly less likely IMO.  I agree with @Lihu, that it does not mean that is exactly a money shot, just that it is least of all other evils on the poll.

The other reason I voted 7i is not because it is the statistical leader for me but if there is ONE shot to make or break then I believe it boils down to confidence which can be a simply what gives you the smallest butterflies. Actually it is also why I didn't pick driver which is actually my statistical leader (FIRs) now.

[Lihu 751]

3 hours ago, GolfLug said:

I picked 7i anywhere on the green from 160 y out since it has the largest margin of error from the choices. Wedge within 18 feet from 100 y is slightly less likely IMO.  I agree with @Lihu, that it does not mean that is exactly a money shot, just that it is least of all other evils on the poll.

The other reason I voted 7i is not because it is the statistical leader for me but if there is ONE shot to make or break then I believe it boils down to confidence which can be a simply what gives you the smallest butterflies. Actually it is also why I didn't pick driver which is actually my statistical leader (FIRs) now.

Your not kidding about the "evil poll" part.

[CoachB25 18]

7i is money at 150 yards.  Easy 7 without trying to come out of my shoes.  I have so much faith in this shot that I often look to lay up at the 150 yard marker. 

[boogielicious 2,750]

8 hours ago, CoachB25 said:

7i is money at 150 yards.  Easy 7 without trying to come out of my shoes.  I have so much faith in this shot that I often look to lay up at the 150 yard marker. 

So if you and I were betting on how many GIRs you would get in 10 tries from 150 versus how many putts I would sink from 8 feet, would you take that bet?

[RH31 34]

Fairway wood layup would be the most likely chance of success for me. If the putt was breaking right to left I would've chosen that.