2017 Masters Tournament

[skydog]

16 hours ago, MuniGrit said:

The par 5's at Augusta get destroyed by all the players.

Not really true at all.

[iacas]

30 minutes ago, skydog said:

Not really true at all.

Agreed. The back nine ones are a little easier (and also a bit more dangerous), but it's not like the average is 4.1 or something.

In fact…

#2 - 4.82 average, 4.619 low (1990) - http://www.masters.com/en_US/course/hole2.html
#8 - 4.795 average, 4.635 low (1974) - http://www.masters.com/en_US/course/hole8.html
#13 - 4.838 average, 4.557 low (1974) - http://www.masters.com/en_US/course/hole13.html
#15 - 4.776 average, 4.505 low (1991) - http://www.masters.com/en_US/course/hole15.html

Play those 16 times (4 each) and the average is only about 3 under par.

[skydog]

^I was looking for those stats but couldn't find them. Thanks for posting.

I'm really surprised to see #15 has the lowest average of the four...and equally surprised that 13 has the highest avg (I guess because of some blowup high scores there through the years?). The shallowness of the 15 green is hard to appreciate until you see it in person.

Edited March 21, 2017 by skydog

[MuniGrit]

1 hour ago, skydog said:

Not really true at all.

They all play well under par. How is it not true at all? 

[ChrisP]

I wouldn't say they get "destroyed." The longer you hit it and the straighter you hit it, the better your chances of beating them up. But a lot of guys struggle to position it well, particularly on 13 and 15 where hitting the fairway (or in 15s case, putting it in a spot where the trees don't get in your way) are a challenge.

Edited March 21, 2017 by ChrisP

[iacas]

14 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

They all play well under par. How is it not true at all? 

Because those averages are not at all "destroyed."

~4.8 not "well under par." They're not even a quarter shot. Half of them are not even a fifth of a shot.

[p1n9183]

Both holes 13/15 are reacheable in 2, but first you need to put the ball in play.
13th it´s a hard tee shot and the 2nd it is hit from a severe slope to a well guarded green with water, bunkers and slopes/tiers. In case of lay up you still have a severe slope to hit from.
15th it is a bit easier to hit the fairway and not get blocked by the trees, but in the second shot you need to put the ball on a small green, if not you can be in the water in the front and in the back. And again if you lay up you have to face a severe downslope to a small green.

Par 5´s on tour, i don´t have the numbers but the average on the it´s arround 4,5 or 4,6 so the average on augusta Par 5´s are higher... so not destroying them at all.  

[MuniGrit]

24 minutes ago, iacas said:

Because those averages are not at all "destroyed."

~4.8 not "well under par." They're not even a quarter shot. Half of them are not even a fifth of a shot.

Sure there are past champions that go out and shoot 80 helping the numbers look harder than they are. Anyone in contention on Sunday has played par 5 well. The winner is usually 8 under or better on the par 5s regardless if they are a long hitter or not. 

[p1n9183]

2 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

Sure there are past champions that go out and shoot 80 helping the numbers look harder than they are. Anyone in contention on Sunday has played par 5 well. The winner is usually 8 under or better on the par 5s regardless if they are a long hitter or not. 

The winner ! and maybe 1 or 2 more play them on 8 under. But all the field it´s what matters. The one´s playing above their hability make everybody thinks that the holes are easy, and that´s what TV shows. But if the average of the field it´s -3 there are players shooting +3 on the same par 5´s, and they are tour players, exceptional players and they still shoot over par on Par 5´s in augusta.

Same happens for PGA tournaments that the winner shoot 20 under par. People said the course it´s easy. But hell no, im sure it´s a 76 rating, 145 slope par 71 where the cut after 2 days it´s around par, so half of the field shoot over par.   

[Wally Fairway]

24 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

Sure there are past champions that go out and shoot 80 helping the numbers look harder than they are. Anyone in contention on Sunday has played par 5 well. The winner is usually 8 under or better on the par 5s regardless if they are a long hitter or not. 

Anyone in contention is usually striking the ball well, they will certainly make up some ground on the par 5's (in any tournament). But the field is not the same as everyone in contention.
The better known one's 13/15 are classic risk v. reward holes; both have water that can come into play short and trouble if you go long or bail out. So yeah the 4 or 5 guys in contention might make it look like they are easy holes but they are not that way for the field. Quite honestly this says a lot about the design of the holes (and of the greens) that they hold up fairly well even though they are basically long (or medium length) par 4's with players hitting into them with mid to low irons if they get a big drive and roll.

The stat you should be asking about is what the scoring average is on the weekend, because that eliminates the extreme non-contenders - most of the invited amateurs, the past champions past their playing days, and those having a bad week. I still don't think you will find them destroying by all the players making the cut.
 

[skydog]

41 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

 Anyone in contention on Sunday has played par 5 well. The winner is usually 8 under or better on the par 5s regardless if they are a long hitter or not. 

Yes...that is the whole point...the contenders. Not 'all the players'. Thus the likes of Rory and DJ have a big advantage because they can shoot 10 under on the par 5s for the week while the average player in the field has only shaved a couple strokes off par.

 

41 minutes ago, MuniGrit said:

Sure there are past champions that go out and shoot 80 helping the numbers look harder than they are.

Usually there are a handful or less of these past champions posting big #s...and it's only for half the tournament. Not enough to severely distort the averages over the life of the event.

Edited March 21, 2017 by skydog

[MuniGrit]

24 minutes ago, skydog said:

Yes...that is the whole point...the contenders. Not 'all the players'. Thus the likes of Rory and DJ have a big advantage because they can shoot 10 under on the par 5s for the week while the average player in the field has only shaved a couple strokes off par.

 

Usually there are a handful or less of these past champions posting big #s...and it's only for half the tournament. Not enough to severely distort the averages over the life of the event.

Zac Johnson and Speith have played them quite well not being long hitters. 2007 ZJ made 11 birdies playing them in 3 shots. Point is the distance isn't as big of a factor as people make it seem. DJ will be hitting 3 wood on a couple anyways.

[1badbadger]

3 hours ago, skydog said:

^I was looking for those stats but couldn't find them. Thanks for posting.

I'm really surprised to see #15 has the lowest average of the four...and equally surprised that 13 has the highest avg (I guess because of some blowup high scores there through the years?). The shallowness of the 15 green is hard to appreciate until you see it in person.

I was surprised that #13 had the highest average of the par 5s also.  I would have guessed it was #15.

Tiger destroyed the par 5s in '97.  He hit wedge into #15 the first two days for his second shots.  In the first  round, he was -2 on the par 5s., on Fri -5, and -3 on both Sat and Sun.   

I think that's why there is a perception that they get destroyed... 
 

[StevenR84]

Jordan Spieth's last 3 finishes at Augusta:

2

1

2

how is he not the favorite?

[Wally Fairway]

MuniGrit - interesting that you use one year to generalize, so  I'll pick Zach Johnson from your example

2016 (two rounds MC) - 2 (E), 8 (E), 13 (+3), 15 (-1), +2 for the 8 par 5's (+.25)
2015 (four rounds T9) - 2 (-2), 8 (-3), 13 (-3), 15 (-3)  -11 for the 16 par 5's (-.69)
2014 (two rounds MC) - 2 (-1), 8 (-1), 13 (E), 15 (E),  -2 for the 8 par 5's (-.25)
2013 (four rounds T35) - 2 (-2), 8 (E), 13 (+1), 15(E), -1 for the 16 par 5's (-.06)
2012 (four rounds T32) - 2 (-3), 8 (E), 13 (-3), 15 (-1), -7 for the 16 par 5's (-.44)
2011 (two rounds MC) - 2 (E), 8 (-2), 13 (+1), 15 (-1), -2 for the 8 par 5's (-.25)
2010 (four rounds 42nd) - 2 (-1), 8 (E), 13 (+1), 15 (-2), -2 for the 16 par 5's (-.13)
2009 (two rounds MC) - 2 (-1), 8 (+1), 13 (-1), 15 (-1), -2 for the 8 par 5's (-.25)
2008 (four rounds T20) - 2 (-2), 8 (+1), 13 (-3), 15 (-1), -5 for the 16 par 5's (-.31)
2007 (four rounds 1st) - 2 (-3), 8 (-3), 13 (-3), 15 (-2), -11 for the 16 par 5's (-.69)
2006 (four rounds T32) - 2 (-1), 8 (-2), 13 (-2), 15 (E), -5 for the 16 par 5's (-.31)
2005 (two rounds MC) - 2 (E), 8 (E), 13 (-1), 15 (E), -1 for the 8 par fours (-.13)

So the total is 47 for the 152 holes played for an average -.31

Looks to me like you remember the years when someone plays them extremely well, but not so much when they play them slightly better than average or worse. And remember in almost every tournament the par 5's are the scoring holes.

source (I had no idea this existed until I googled for "player" scorecards - click scorecards, then a year and finally an event)

http://www.espn.com/golf/player/_/id/686/zach-johnson

 

[MuniGrit]

I'm just saying everyone over rates the distance off the tee because of these par 5s. It is the guy who is playing well. All the players can destroy these Giles regardless of distance offrom the tees. Pull up Speith stats. There is another short knocker. Those scoring averages are low considering you have guys ripping wedges off the greens into the water and then dunking the next shot making big numbers. You have Tiger and other amatuer and old guys making big numbers. I notice the historical scoring average is what was posted. What is the average over the past 20 years?

[Buckeyebowman]

9 hours ago, skydog said:

Tiger has already committed to attended the Champions dinner.

You beat me to it. I would think that the Champion's Dinner is something Tiger would like to attend. He's developed a reputation for being aloof, but years ago I watched him on the practice tee at the WGC Bridgestone at Firestone CC. He was walking around, talking to a lot of players. Big smiles and laughs all around!

[skydog]

4 hours ago, StevenR84 said:

Jordan Spieth's last 3 finishes at Augusta:

2

1

2

how is he not the favorite?

He is the Vegas favorite....slightly ahead of DJ.

He's the favorite in my book.