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What Would a 20.1 (see post #95) Index Shoot at a Local U.S. Open Qualifier Site?


kpaulhus
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1 hour ago, Aguirre said:

Golf is a unique sport for choking. You just have too much time to think. I'm sure I'll miss some, but the others that come to mind:

1) Tennis (serving)

2) Field goal kickers at the end of games to tie or win

3) Free throws

4) Penalty kicks in soccer

That's about it. Everything else is in the flow of the game, and I don't think they compare. I think too much is made of choking at the highest level (thanks, Johnny Miller), but not when you stick a 20 handicap into a USGA event. Even if it's just a qualifier.

EDIT--And in the examples above, they do not encompass the entirety of play. In golf, it's EVERY shot.

Yeah.  You could add baseball pitchers onto that list, especially when they get runners on base and start throwing balls.  But, again, like you said, these are still just small moments in the other sports - not the entirety of the game like golf.

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14 hours ago, Hardspoon said:

The "mental game" (ugh) is not the reason the high-handicapper would struggle.

Exactly.

The reason I would struggle would have little to do with pressure. It would be because I can't carry a driver 250 yards over water to a par 3 as shown in that picture. Of the courses I play, carrying water hazards from the tips would seem be the biggest killer. 

  • I've yet to play greens I can't hold with high approach shots (hitting the green, on the other hand, is always the challenge). So I don't know what it's like to play a course that has those type of greens. 
  • My putting sucks on flat slow greens and is equally bad - but not really worse - on fast greens with a lot of slope.
  • Getting out of tall rough sucks. But it isn't like I'd be going for the green from 150 out of that stuff. 
  • Deep bunkers beat me up pretty bad.

Not every 21+ has the same weaknesses and every course has its unique challenges. But consider this... when I shoot in the high 90's, I don't hit a lot of pars. I suppose if my only objective was to stay under 127, it's possible I could. It would simply depend on how I was playing on that day... little else. On a bad day, I can shoot 110 from 6,000 yards.

Jon

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11 hours ago, Shorty said:

LOL - The chokes of golfers at the highest level - think of Speith at the Masters in 2016 and Norman a dozen times, Garcia several times, Watson at The Open not so many years back are exactly like the pressures volleyball players are under when it is played "at a high level".:whistle: What happens when nerves take over at volleyball? Do nervous cyclists fall off their bikes at The Tour? Golf exposes how pressure is handled like no other sport.

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Yes. They even fall off mountains! :-P Watch any mountain stage, especially during the descents when nerves take over! I've raced a lot and felt the nerves not just at the start, but during even hard parts of the race.

Golf has more down time. Even in low stakes matches, nerves can pop up, and jittery hands can make a putt miss.

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  • I am a 17 HCP and based upon the description of the course conditions by the OP I could not break 127.  The carry distances and the green conditions would eliminate me from trying.  I carry a good drive about 210 yards and with a 250 carry required over water I am a non-starter.  On the other hand, if there were not forced carries longer than 170 yards I just might give it a try but that is not reality. 
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On 5/16/2017 at 4:25 PM, kpaulhus said:

... In June or July when our rough is the thickets. Has to walk. No laser.

So, what kind of game does the 20-ish HDCP player have? If the player can hit the ball fairly straight, and realizes that bogies are the order of the day, he might come in about 110 or so.

This assumes not very many three putts or double-chips on the day.

Note, however, that the hypothetical bogey golfer is expected to hit 200 yard drives and decent 170-yd. approach shots. On a 480-yd. par 4, he could still have a 9-iron left to the green after two average shots.

So, our 20-ish would have to play very good golf to bogie the long par 4. Miss a shot, a double-bogie... get into trouble... who knows?

Our 20-ish might be able to save a few strokes by playing the par 3 holes as short par 4s, assuming there's no brutal carries over water or jungle valleys.

The number of long forced carries would be critical.

Another factor might be endurance. Getting out of deep rough could injure someone who fails to wedge back to the fairway.

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On 5/17/2017 at 9:23 AM, Killa said:

That's not true, you get into pressure situations quite often. And once you've done enough of them you can either handle them or you can't. It doesn't matter what sport.

This is an inaccurate statement.  

One example off the top of my head is from Jeff Clark.  He was the first man to surf Mavericks.

He said he could not understand how he could do that and be shaky on a four footer in golf.  He actually said he was afraid of a four foot putt.  This guy has done more than you ever have in terms of risk management.

Everyone feels pressure it's what you choose to do that defines you.

On the guy trying to break 127 I am saying he folds,  but I am not putting money on it.

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On 5/16/2017 at 9:51 PM, kpaulhus said:

Summer rough. IMG_0026.JPG

 

250yd par 3...there is no laying up here. 

IMG_0025.JPG

 

That hole you posted, wouldnt that make thhis hole unplayable? They couldnt even complete this challenge?

I dont have an official HI, but I think this would be tough for me for that 120ish figure. I've never played a golf tourney, but Im used to individual pressure from other sports (pitcher/ hockey goalie) so that doesnt scare me. 

On 5/17/2017 at 7:29 PM, Aguirre said:

Golf is a unique sport for choking. You just have too much time to think. I'm sure I'll miss some, but the others that come to mind:

1) Tennis (serving)

2) Field goal kickers at the end of games to tie or win

3) Free throws

4) Penalty kicks in soccer

That's about it. Everything else is in the flow of the game, and I don't think they compare. I think too much is made of choking at the highest level (thanks, Johnny Miller), but not when you stick a 20 handicap into a USGA event. Even if it's just a qualifier.

EDIT--And in the examples above, they do not encompass the entirety of play. In golf, it's EVERY shot.

Baseball pitcher? Literally controls when every ball thrown happens, like a golfer controls when his ball is in play. I mean, you see pitchers go through the same thing as a nervous golfer. Shakes off multiple calls, takes longer than usual when nervous about a situation, and other things. Like a golf swing, your throw motion also stays practically the same once its established, so you can tell when its off within a few throws.

Edited by cutchemist42
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On 5/17/2017 at 10:17 PM, JonMA1 said:

I suppose if my only objective was to stay under 127, it's possible I could.

I'm going to recant this statement.

If I get a chance this year - meaning no one else is on the course - I might try playing from the tips on my home course. It's just under 6700 yards but has a rating and slope of 73/138. Not the same, I know. But a closer indication than what I normally play.

Jon

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I couldn't do it.  Here's a 147 slope, 6,800+ course in Williamsburg I play that will put you in reality quickly.  This sloped, hilly with carries par 5 (and many others) are beautiful but make for a long day.

IMG_4344.PNG

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@kpaulhus The way you describe your buddy's game it seems to me he'd have a hard time breaking the mark.  I think you made a good bet.

Something that I think about, is he's a 20 index, which of course means that is based on his best 10 scores of the last 20 rounds.  His average score would be much worse.  And as someone mentioned above, that also takes into account ESC.  He doesn't get to take any strokes off for ESC in this case.  Also, it sounds like he's a 20 because his game is all over the place, and not because of one or two limitations.

I'm guessing he only gets one shot, for the bet.  If he had 20 attempts, he'd likely  pull it off at least a couple times.  But only one shot, with the bet riding on it, the odds are in your favor.

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I played with 21.2 index yesterday.  I admit that it's been awhile since I played with a relatively high handicap player.  I'd forgotten what a, shall we say, challenge the game is for them.  

Nice, athletic guy, and longer than me when all the moving parts align at the same time, but that just doesn't happen very often.  Every shot is an adventure, including the simplest pitches, and even putts.  He shot 98 on a good, but relatively benign 6,350 yard course.  Add another 800-1,000 yards, and the realization that you can't just pick up when you're lying 10 and still haven't cleared that water hazard in which you've just dunked your 3d ball, and I can easily see how another 30+ strokes could come to be.

I still think that it's possible that the 20.1 index could break 127 on the right day, on the right course where the only real challenge is the length, but I don't know that it's as likely as I believed before yesterday.  

I'm taking the over on @kpaulhus's bet.  

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3 hours ago, David in FL said:

Every shot is an adventure, including the simplest pitches, and even putts.

I don't know the statistics, but let's say a 6.6 can stay out of trouble on 9 out of 10 strokes (or 14 of 15, or whatever). Players like me are costing ourselves strokes at a much higher ratio.

Some mistakes are obvious such as those which cause penalties, but there are so many other types of bad strokes that add up. There are seemingly easy chips where our blade catches and we don't get it any where near 1 putt distance, the 20' lag putt that stops 7' short, or a PW approach that misses wide, or a tee shot that causes us to punch out to the fairway instead of having a decent shot to the green.

Is it safe to say all those things happen to better players during a round, but just less frequently?

Jon

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I was a 5 index at one time playing from the blue/white tees about 6300 yard on most courses. I played a private course that had hosted an average PGA tournament, I think it was the Bell South Open on the Wed following the closing Sunday. We played from the tournament tees to the pins which had been changed, easier for sure, by the rules of golf. I shot a 125. Could a 20 break 127, not a chance.

Edited by Groundhog34
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13 minutes ago, Groundhog34 said:

I played a private course that had hosted an average PGA tournament, I think it was the Bell South Open on the Wed following the closing Sunday. We played from the tournament tees to the pins which had been changed, easier for sure, by the rules of golf.  I shot a 125. Could a 20 break 127, not a chance.

The question in this thread has nothing to do with a PGA tournament course...it's talking about a US Open Qualifier.

Also, from everything I've read about amateurs playing PGA courses, your experience was remarkably poor (I don't mean any offense by that...it's hard to express what I mean without sounding snarky!)

http://www.golfdigest.com/story/080606contest_strege

In 2008, an 8.1 handicap shot a 114 on the US Open course, arguably the hardest setup in golf.  A 6.0 handicap shot a 98.

Edited by Hardspoon

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17 hours ago, Hardspoon said:

In 2008, an 8.1 handicap shot a 114 on the US Open course, arguably the hardest setup in golf.  A 6.0 handicap shot a 98.

And…

Quote

 

But as he noted when it was over, he's always been a second-half finisher. Jordan was 4 over for the back nine to finish 16-over 86.

Roethlisberger fared the best of the group, shooting an 81. Timberlake had an 88. Their playing partner, Larry Giebelhausen, just missed his goal of breaking 100 with a 101.

 

http://www.golf.com/ap-news/jordan-roethlisberger-timberlake-play-bethpage

On 5/16/2017 at 5:53 PM, Papa Steve 55 said:

There was a short lived special after the US open a few years back with different level golfers at the US open course. IIRC the single digit was the only one to break 100.

Not really. Many of the players broke 100.

And that, as John pointed out, is the U.S. Open course.

Local Qualifiers are played at a regular course set up for regular play. They barely do anything for sectional qualifying… This isn't a U.S. Open course.

I think that if the 20 is a LEGIT 20, he breaks 127 the majority of the time.

I know how bad bad golfers can be, but 126/18 is 7 per hole. For every five, you can make a 9.

There are going to be holes where he makes a nine or a ten, sure, but there are going to be holes where he makes a 3, 4, or 5.

On 5/16/2017 at 9:47 PM, kpaulhus said:

I appreciate all of the replies. Now, let me preface this by saying I watched this golfer make a 19 on a par 5 because he couldn't reach the fairway, lost his ball in the rough short of the fairway.

One time. You've also seen him make a birdie, I presume… and probably far more often than you've seen him make a 19.

On 5/16/2017 at 9:47 PM, kpaulhus said:

There will be no less than 4-5 carts of audience following him on every shot to emulate pressure.

There aren't 4-5 carts following guys in local qualifying.

On 5/16/2017 at 9:47 PM, kpaulhus said:

If I were a huge ass I could ask the super to set up some tough pins that day, and our rough is already cut to 2 3/4 inches deep, so maybe pick a Thursday or Sunday where they haven't been able to mow and it will be 3.5-4" deep and wet.

That's not how the local qualifying courses are typically set up. They're played pretty much under regular conditions.

On 5/17/2017 at 9:14 AM, Groucho Valentine said:

The USGA doesn't really trick out conditions at the qualifying sites. The setups are typically what they normally are at that course.

This.

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On ‎5‎/‎20‎/‎2017 at 10:21 AM, Hatchman said:

I couldn't do it.  Here's a 147 slope, 6,800+ course in Williamsburg I play that will put you in reality quickly.  This sloped, hilly with carries par 5 (and many others) are beautiful but make for a long day.

 

I think it is should be nominated for the dumbest tricked up hole in all of Virginia (Looks like #6 at Colonial Heritage). I think would easily place in the top 5. Lot of other silly holes on the course in the guise of 'difficulty'.

I don't think courses like that host qualifiers.. :-)

Vishal S.

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The problem the 20 is going to have on a PGA course such as I played is he will make a 15 or 17 on a couple of holes, ESPECIALLY if there are forced carries of 250+ over water or holes with false fronts with a pond in front of the green. He will make lots of 8's. Remember he must play by "the rules of golf". I did not have a bad game the day I shot my 125. I made several pars and a birdie. It was the 3 holes with forced carries off the tee that were my downfall. I would put my money on the over, even on a qualifier track. The greens will be difficult especially without a knowledgeable caddie to help with reads, the traps unkind, the rough unforgiven. Lost balls stroke and distance, no drop with stroke where you think it went out as commonly played in weekend games.  

Edited by Groundhog34
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Really depends on how your game is built.

With a very good long game and terrible putting/short game I think you can do fairly well on any course. 

If you cant drive well past 200 youre going to have issues on any long course even without forced carries.

Edited by Alx
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