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2017 U.S. Open Discussion Topic


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32 minutes ago, nevets88 said:

Damn straight it's a skill. 

 

What's interesting about it? Stating the obvious ?

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1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

What's interesting about it? Stating the obvious ?

Many people tend to think of "finesse" skills like Mickelson's wedge play or Spieth's putting as skills, honed through years of practice, while somehow treating distance like an inherent ability.  

It's interesting to hear it described that way, since it isn't obvious to everyone. Just listen to the talking heads on the Golf Channel for an hour and you'll see that.

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5 hours ago, Hardspoon said:

Many people tend to think of "finesse" skills like Mickelson's wedge play or Spieth's putting as skills, honed through years of practice, while somehow treating distance like an inherent ability.  

It's interesting to hear it described that way, since it isn't obvious to everyone. Just listen to the talking heads on the Golf Channel for an hour and you'll see that.

Yeah the fact he is saying this he's responding to people saying the opposite. Especially given he's not tall or big, lots of skill to hit it that far. 

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16 hours ago, onthehunt526 said:

Its not off topic.

They probably send it off to be baled, the local cheese cows will be eating good for a bit.

SO many wood and deer ticks will be relocated now.  oh the humanity

Ticks - another good reason to hit fairways

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For all the talk about the thickness of the rough, I would still bet that the winning score this week will reach double digits below par. This tournament could even break the record for the most players under par after four rounds.

I'm not crazy in thinking this, right?

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31 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

For all the talk about the thickness of the rough, I would still bet that the winning score this week will reach double digits below par. This tournament could even break the record for the most players under par after four rounds.

I'm not crazy in thinking this, right?

I'm really on the fence line.  I'd like to think it still won't be that easy, but I haven't taken a super in depth look at the course. Soft greens are recipes for low scores, but soft fairways will mean approach shots with long irons versus wedges or low irons. So it could stay close to the same.  I don't know, I'm just going to wait until Thursday night to say how it'll finish.

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Not to thrilled about another US Open without any trees coming into play. Its pretty much bombs away and just have to hit out of thick rough. It really favors the strong guys. A tree doesnt care how strong you are, your not getting thru it.

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58 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

For all the talk about the thickness of the rough, I would still bet that the winning score this week will reach double digits below par. This tournament could even break the record for the most players under par after four rounds.

I'm not crazy in thinking this, right?

Agree here. I loved Rory's comments yesterday, which were basically a slap at Kevin Na. He said if you hit it that far offline and into the high fescue, you don't even deserve to be in this championship. It should be a hazard. The fairways are so wide this week.

Throw in four par-5s and soft conditions and I think somewhere double digits under par will win. Length doesn't equal high scores-narrow fairways and a fast surface do. I also do think it will be a big hitter and name that wins because those guys traditionally do well on these types of courses.

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watching the hole by hole fly over on the website it looks like a neat course.  lots of undulation on the greens and the fairways, not much flat ground there....Visually its a pretty stunning course.  Looking forward to it as always.

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It's going to be interesting how things play out scoring-wise.  I think the USGA will adjust (as they always do) during the tournament so it doesn't get too low.  It think they will default, at first, to make sure it isn't overly difficult.  From there the scores will go up a bit.

I'd predict an opening round leader in the -4 range and then the winner on Sunday around -6 or -7 unless the winds and weather rears its ugly head.

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44 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

Agree here. I loved Rory's comments yesterday, which were basically a slap at Kevin Na. He said if you hit it that far offline and into the high fescue, you don't even deserve to be in this championship. It should be a hazard. The fairways are so wide this week.

Throw in four par-5s and soft conditions and I think somewhere double digits under par will win. Length doesn't equal high scores-narrow fairways and a fast surface do. I also do think it will be a big hitter and name that wins because those guys traditionally do well on these types of courses.

The average aggregate winning score for the last ten Opens is 278; the median winning score is 278.5. Most of those tournaments were held on par-70 courses, but three were held on par-71s; the par-71s yielded the second and third-highest winning scores in that span (283 and 284), but also the lowest in the last decade, and of all time (268). It's a small sample size, but I believe the par on the scorecard is largely irrelevant to the total number of strokes it's going to take to win this tournament. At Erin Hills, the average winning score over the last decade will show up as -10 on the leaderboard.

The record for players finishing under par at a U.S. Open is 28, which was set at Medinah in 1990. To finish under par this year, one would have to finish four rounds in 287 strokes or less; for comparison, 31 golfers had a four-round aggregate score of 287 or lower at Oakmont last year.

The idea that it's going to take a long hitter to win this championship is a little basic. We've reached a point in golf where they're nearly all long hitters these days.

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I am fortunate to be working the open this year. I am eating lunch in the media center as I  type this. The course is in awesome shape. The venue is huge. The golf has been impressive.  these guys really work hard. 1 hour of short game  practice. 1 hour long game practice.  a round  then another hour of short game and then long. Validates  my practice routines.

 

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1 minute ago, Chilli Dipper said:

The average aggregate winning score for the last ten Opens is 278; the median winning score is 278.5. Most of those tournaments were held on par-70 courses, but three were held on par-71s; the par-71s yielded the second and third-highest winning scores in that span (283 and 284), but also the lowest in the last decade, and of all time (268). It's a small sample size, but I believe the par on the scorecard is largely irrelevant to the total number of strokes it's going to take to win this tournament. At Erin Hills, the average winning score over the last decade will show up as -10 on the leaderboard.

The record for players finishing under par at a U.S. Open is 28, which was set at Medinah in 1990. To finish under par this year, one would have to finish four rounds in 287 strokes or less; for comparison, 31 golfers had a four-round aggregate score of 287 or lower at Oakmont last year.

The idea that it's going to take a long hitter to win this championship is a little basic. We've reached a point in golf where they're nearly all long hitters these days.

They are long hitters. When you figure 289 yards is AVERAGE for these guys. I don't think it's that simple though, usually it's a guy who hits a lot of greens in regulation who wins. That's why I said Dufner or Garcia. You don't necessarily have to lead the field in putting to win, just don't 3-putt. I don't know that double digits under par wins. Maybe 280. But I'm sticking with -4 there are enough trap holes to keep the winning score in the -2 to -7 range. Not to say there isn't a 64 or 65 out there, because there is.

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2 hours ago, Chilli Dipper said:

For all the talk about the thickness of the rough, I would still bet that the winning score this week will reach double digits below par. This tournament could even break the record for the most players under par after four rounds.

I'm not crazy in thinking this, right?

I think it's definitely possible...unless Mike Davis et. al develop a complex with scoring and start trying to reactively toughen up the course by going with absurd pin locations, etc. Hopefully that doesn't happen and they let the course stand on its own regardless of scoring.

Rory said he didn't hit anything more than a 6 iron into any of the par 4s in practice....length is definitely going to be an advantage but the length of the course won't provide much defense from the long hitters.

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If you look at think of courses, wide fairways and soft conditions, you get ball strikers who can hit it far. This may be a low scoring Open, but it is going to benefit the best players in the world. I think you're more likely to get a star-studded leaderboard with this setup and these conditions. It plays into Rory, DJ, Rickie, Day, Scott and Sergio's strengths.

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5 hours ago, Chilli Dipper said:

For all the talk about the thickness of the rough, I would still bet that the winning score this week will reach double digits below par. This tournament could even break the record for the most players under par after four rounds.

I'm not crazy in thinking this, right?

I just watched the flyover vids of the course. I see a course with no trees, no water & wide fairways. Of course it will be tough, and I imagine it will certainly have US Open-speed greens. But I can also see low scores. All depends on how hard the wind blows.

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2 hours ago, skydog said:

I think it's definitely possible...unless Mike Davis et. al develop a complex with scoring and start trying to reactively toughen up the course by going with absurd pin locations, etc. Hopefully that doesn't happen and they let the course stand on its own regardless of scoring.

Rory said he didn't hit anything more than a 6 iron into any of the par 4s in practice....length is definitely going to be an advantage but the length of the course won't provide much defense from the long hitters.

Don't you wish you could play a 7600 yard course and never hit more than 6i into a par 4 :-P

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