Predict Tiger's 2018 Season

[iacas]

7 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

By the way Iacas, so what if Kuchar wasn't intimidated.

I was responding to a post about how intimidation is thought of as key to Tiger's winning.

Tiger won, IMO, not because he "intimidated," but simply because (like Spieth vs. Kuchar), he was simply that much better than everyone else.

[Veteran Golf Fan]

On ‎12‎/‎20‎/‎2017 at 3:40 PM, Ty_Webb said:

I went with 3 and 1. I'm pretty hopeful after watching how he played in the Hero. I think if he stays healthy then this year is more likely to be a 2013 than a 2017. Fingers crossed.

I think in the Masters he'll have a run on Sunday and wind up falling back a bit. Finishing somewhere top ten, but not top five. He'll make the cut at the US Open, contend early at the Open, but fall back and then win the PGA. 

I think the history proves that if Tiger is in the hunt on Sunday afternoon, he tends to close well.

[Eric C]

2 hours ago, iacas said:

Is that score adjusted?

Tiger didn't play the "easier scoring" events. And he played so few, too, that the higher scoring at the majors could almost single-handedly account for those types of scoring effects: everyone shoots higher scores at the U.S. Open, British Open, etc.

Quoting from the study, "his scores in regular and major events are significantly lower than the mean scores of other exempt golfers in all years except 2004. In his outstanding 2001 season, Woods averaged nearly 5 strokes better than the average exempt player. In major tournaments, Woods played more than 7 strokes better than his exempt competitors."

You're a math nerd, Iacas, and i'm embarrassingly not, so I'll attach the study. It's pretty statistical, which you'll probably appreciate, and you might find its faults.  I completely zone out with anything other than words and pretty pictures. The premise of the study actually transcends golf, and I found it really interesting ... and of course, it fit my argument nicely.

I'm way off topic, so I'll shut up now.

Quitters Never Win.pdf

[Veteran Golf Fan]

So, Eric,  no question that Tiger was the intimidator in his prime.   Won at Pebble by 15 shots over second place Els.  We saw time after time guys playing with him or within a couple of groups fold like a cheap suit.  I am anxious to see whether that intimidation factor will resurface with the new swing and health being restored.  Saw a little of it at the Hero where JT couldn't outdrive or outplay Tiger.  JT was in awe when he saw Tiger whistle that 2 iron 260 into the wind and land a ball on the par 5 green.  Very, very awesome.

[iacas]

5 hours ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

So, Eric,  no question that Tiger was the intimidator in his prime.   Won at Pebble by 15 shots over second place Els.  We saw time after time guys playing with him or within a couple of groups fold like a cheap suit.  I am anxious to see whether that intimidation factor will resurface with the new swing and health being restored.

Jason Gore collapsed in the final round of the US Open at Pinehurst. Dustin Johnson at Pebble Beach. Sometimes it’s just pressure, not “intimidation.”

Tiger was just better.

[phillyk]

5 hours ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

So, Eric,  no question that Tiger was the intimidator in his prime.   Won at Pebble by 15 shots over second place Els.  We saw time after time guys playing with him or within a couple of groups fold like a cheap suit.  I am anxious to see whether that intimidation factor will resurface with the new swing and health being restored.  Saw a little of it at the Hero where JT couldn't outdrive or outplay Tiger.  JT was in awe when he saw Tiger whistle that 2 iron 260 into the wind and land a ball on the par 5 green.  Very, very awesome.

Its not the good shots that intimidate already good golfers. I mean they are playing PGA Tour, every body has done every type of shot. If anything, I’d think it was the recovery shots that would wear your competitors down. Tiger seemed like he always had either, good breaks or just fantastic recovery shots. That would wear a guy down who’s thinking they got a stroke on Tiger. 

[RussUK]

As have said before, i hope Tiger does win again because lets face it we all love a fairytale story of a comeback kid. But other than a win on a lesser contested event i cant see him setting the world of golf on fire again like he did in the 00's.

Dont get me wrong, he's obvously still a good golfer and has presence on the course but since his last win golf has moved on. We have some hugely talented young golfers coming through the ranks and the likes of DJ, Garcia, Rose, Speith, Day all proving they can win at the very highest level.

Its going to be very interesting to see how he plays against the next generation of players.

[Moxley]

I think he can pick up a couple - especially among the smaller events. No majors for me, although, as others have said, I hope I'm wrong about that. 

[Moxley]

15 hours ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

So, Eric,  no question that Tiger was the intimidator in his prime.   Won at Pebble by 15 shots over second place Els.  We saw time after time guys playing with him or within a couple of groups fold like a cheap suit.  I am anxious to see whether that intimidation factor will resurface with the new swing and health being restored.  Saw a little of it at the Hero where JT couldn't outdrive or outplay Tiger.  JT was in awe when he saw Tiger whistle that 2 iron 260 into the wind and land a ball on the par 5 green.  Very, very awesome.

 

This may be the case, but when we're looking at distance to the nearest competitors, a large gap will often just indicate rational risk taking from a competitor who knows they need to gamble in order to catch Tiger once he had passed them (may not be the case as much for players more interested in prize money than winning). Kind of like a football team who are trailing by a single goal but concede 1 or 2 late goals when chasing the game. 
 

[Wally Fairway]

16 hours ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

I think the history proves that if Tiger is in the hunt on Sunday afternoon, he tends to close well.

I think it shows he is most dominant when he has the lead going into Sunday. Of his 79 tour wins 54 came when he had at least a share of the 54 hole lead, according to wiki - his record is 54-4 when he had a share of the lead, 42-2 when he had an outright lead. That to me is amazing.
But I can remember times when he was not in the lead when he seemed to press early in Sunday rounds, trying to force shots to make up strokes and falling out of contention ..... or maybe someone else was just playing better that week or day.
People react differently to pressure - Jack won 8 or his majors when he was not in the lead after 54 holes

17 hours ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Wow, lot's of opinions about the GOAT.  By the way Iacas, so what if Kuchar wasn't intimidated.  He still got blown away by Jordan coming down the stretch with the avalanche of birdies and the eagle.  All he could do was shake his head and say, too good.  That is what happens when a good player runs into a great player.

Hey Wally, you said if Tiger won the Masters, it would be like Nicklaus win.  Did you want Tiger to wait until age 46 to win? 

I wasn't necessarily comparing age, more about time between majors. The 10 years since Tiger's last major win is already much longer than it was between Jack's 1986 Masters and his 2 majors in 1980. But Tiger the best player on tour the last year that he was able to play a full schedule.

17 hours ago, iacas said:

I was responding to a post about how intimidation is thought of as key to Tiger's winning.

Tiger won, IMO, not because he "intimidated," but simply because (like Spieth vs. Kuchar), he was simply that much better than everyone else.

I never said it was a key to his winning. But as I stated above, people react differently to pressure - whatever someone calls that reaction.

 

Seriously, I love the debate about how Tiger will do. I hope he does great, because IMO it is good for the tour and for the game. Has anyone ever come back from this type of layoff and returned to prior form? Sure - I think what Hogan did after his car accident is similar and he wasn't away from the tour as long as Tiger has been.

 

[Veteran Golf Fan]

5 hours ago, RussUK said:

As have said before, i hope Tiger does win again because lets face it we all love a fairytale story of a comeback kid. But other than a win on a lesser contested event i cant see him setting the world of golf on fire again like he did in the 00's.

Dont get me wrong, he's obvously still a good golfer and has presence on the course but since his last win golf has moved on. We have some hugely talented young golfers coming through the ranks and the likes of DJ, Garcia, Rose, Speith, Day all proving they can win at the very highest level.

Its going to be very interesting to see how he plays against the next generation of players.

Interesting that you listed DJ, Garcia, Rose & Day, all with one major each and not likely to add to their total.  Spieth with three has the best chance of adding to his total.

[Moxley]

7 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Interesting that you listed DJ, Garcia, Rose & Day, all with one major each and not likely to add to their total.  Spieth with three has the best chance of adding to his total.

 

How do you deduce that they are 'not likely' to add to their totals? 

Day, for instance is 30 years old and is rated by betting markets as having a reasonable 1/8 chance of winning a major this year. Assuming he remains competitive for at least another decade to come , he is likely to add to his tally.

 

[RussUK]

49 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Interesting that you listed DJ, Garcia, Rose & Day, all with one major each and not likely to add to their total.  Spieth with three has the best chance of adding to his total.

Also forgot to add Rory as well. The likes of Speith, DJ and Rory have time on their side. Top level golf is becoming a young mans game. Just because a player is going through a baron patch (like Rory) doesnt mean they cant win the biggies. Same goes for Tiger but the clock his ticking for him and he probably knows it himself.

On the comment of DJ, Garcia, Rose and Day having one major each, out of those if i had to be one of them it would be Rose. I mean Olympic champion has a very nice ring to it .

Edited January 4, 2018 by RussUK

[Veteran Golf Fan]

21 minutes ago, RussUK said:

Also forgot to add Rory as well. The likes of Speith, DJ and Rory have time on their side. Top level golf is becoming a young mans game. Just because a player is going through a baron patch (like Rory) doesnt mean they cant win the biggies. Same goes for Tiger but the clock his ticking for him and he probably knows it himself.

On the comment of DJ, Garcia, Rose and Day having one major each, out of those if i had to be one of them it would be Rose. I mean Olympic champion has a very nice ring to it .

Rose got some mileage out of the Olympics, but that didn't have many of the top players in the world in it so it was nothing like a major championship.  Rose has had his chance at the Masters twice the past few years and couldn't close either time.  He is a nice player with a great swing who gets some wins from time to time, but it is highly doubtful he will ever win another major.

47 minutes ago, Moxley said:

 

How do you deduce that they are 'not likely' to add to their totals? 

Day, for instance is 30 years old and is rated by betting markets as having a reasonable 1/8 chance of winning a major this year. Assuming he remains competitive for at least another decade to come , he is likely to add to his tally.

 

Day has more mystery illnesses and injuries than any three tour pro's.  He also seems to have the driver yips like Stenson and it is really hard to compete with the world's best by hitting long irons off the tee on 480 yard par 4's.  A great player needs to have a complete arsenal of clubs and have confidence in them.

[RussUK]

2 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

Rose got some mileage out of the Olympics, but that didn't have many of the top players in the world in it so it was nothing like a major championship.  Rose has had his chance at the Masters twice the past few years and couldn't close either time.  He is a nice player with a great swing who gets some wins from time to time, but it is highly doubtful he will ever win another major.

Here is just the top 9 players from the olympics. Some pretty good players there.

Further down the list you had the likes of Kaymer, Colsaerts, Ilonnen, Harrington, Kjiedson, Pieters. Essentially the usual suspects who would also play at a Major. If i had to choose between a couple of Majors or an Olympic gold it would be a tough call. If you look at it this way, in the space of 4 years you could theoretically win 16 majors to 1 Olympic title. Makes winning gold that bit more special IMO

[Veteran Golf Fan]

4 minutes ago, RussUK said:

Here is just the top 9 players from the olympics. Some pretty good players there.

Further down the list you had the likes of Kaymer, Colsaerts, Ilonnen, Harrington, Kjiedson, Pieters. Essentially the usual suspects who would also play at a Major. If i had to choose between a couple of Majors or an Olympic gold it would be a tough call. If you look at it this way, in the space of 4 years you could theoretically win 16 majors to 1 Olympic title. Makes winning gold that bit more special IMO

You should probably take a look at the current OWR before posting.  Bubba has fallen off the map, Danny Willett disappeared completely and many others have declined in ranking.  The TOC has more great players in it than the Olympics.  I look for more great players to play the next Olympics since it won't be in a third world country and will have better facilities and then it may mean more.

[RussUK]

11 minutes ago, Veteran Golf Fan said:

You should probably take a look at the current OWR before posting.  Bubba has fallen off the map, Danny Willett disappeared completely and many others have declined in ranking.  The TOC has more great players in it than the Olympics.  I look for more great players to play the next Olympics since it won't be in a third world country and will have better facilities and then it may mean more.

What i posted was in regards to the 2016 Olympic games. Of course the OWR will have changed since the Olympics. I posted that as an example to show that, contrary to your comment that many of the top plyers didnt play, many did.

Plus, maybe be a little less agressive in your posts. 

Anyway, this is getting a bit off topic now.

Edited January 4, 2018 by RussUK

[Veteran Golf Fan]

2 minutes ago, RussUK said:

Irelevant as what i posted was in regards to the 2016 Olympic games. Of course the OWR will have changed since the Olympics. I posted that as an example to show that, contrary to your comment that many of the top plyers didnt play, many did.

Plus, maybe be a little less agressive in your posts. Just saying

Have you noticed that Rory has fallen out of the top 10 now and declining?