Predict Tiger's 2018 Season

[skydog]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

I think they can beat that at Kapalua.

Then at least a record for flat-land courses without elevation I would think 

[Wally Fairway]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 10:11 AM, DeadMan said:

 So Tiger could show up when he's 80, shoot 4 rounds in the 80s and still make money.

I don't really think that Tiger is looking to go full Bowditch, not that Bowdog didn't earn his spot

[jbishop15]

Tiger has committed to both the Valspar and the Arnold Palmer Invitational! 

[onthehunt526]

Tiger doesn't quite have his best yet. I believe he's getting very close. Hell he may even win this week. I think that we are going to have a Masters to remember, folks.

[lastings]

Why the 2-iron on 18?  I get it the rest of the week.  But down 1 on hole 72? You gotta get the big dog out.   190 out to the back right on a ledge is just too much.   Even for the greatest iron player of our generation. 

[Dr. Manhattan]

On 2/26/2018 at 9:11 AM, DeadMan said:

DJ is the next closest with 5, followed by Geoff Ogilvy with 3, and a bunch of people with 2.

I'd bet if Tiger starts playing a really limited schedule that prevents him from qualifying for a WGC, they might make a lifetime exemption change for him. They'd be losing out on a ton of eyeballs if he's playing well but not getting into the WGC. That seems pretty unlikely, though, because if Tiger stays healthy, he'll be back in the WGCs pretty quickly.

The problem with any lifetime exemption is that WGCs are no cut, everybody gets paid. So Tiger could show up when he's 80, shoot 4 rounds in the 80s and still make money.

 

They could cut it off at age 60 like the British Open. I think it will be a moot issue pretty soon if he stays healthy. Current points per start is very similar to Casey/McIlroy. 

[DaveP043]

On 1/4/2018 at 6:23 PM, DaveP043 said:

Did I read something about putting money down?  I've been known to do that before, and the other guy chose not to follow through. 

I think Tiger will do well to play all season, to contend a handful of times, but I doubt he'll win.  I don't know if he'll be physically able to play enough to get back into 100% grind mode, and I don't think that's something he can just turn on at will.  In the majors, I'd guess just one top ten.  It would be more fun if I'm wrong, if he exceeds my expectations, but those are my guesses.

Just revisiting my guess.  I'd say I'm wrong in the part I underlined, Tiger has so far been able to play enough to grind out scores.   We'll see if I'm wrong about the rest of it.

[RussUK]

Well the bet is still on for me. I had him down for one witn no majors.......thing is odd's on him winning the Masters are down to 10-1.

Cheeky bet may be in the pipeline

[Marty2019]

I think I predicted that he would win a tournament. 

Based on the results so far, I'm saying he'll at least win a tournament.  Maybe more than that.  I think we all have to remember, last week's performance was pretty much the old Tiger.  He didn't used to win every time he teed it up, but he put himself in position to win in just about every tournament.  He's only missed 18 cuts in his entire career, and last week looked like the same old same old.   He didn't quite get there, but damn, that was pretty close.  Three or four more tournaments like that, and he'll pop through and win one.  Three or four more after that, and he'll pop through again and win another one.  Just like old times. 

Apparently, he's lost none of that incredible eye-hand coordination. 

Edited March 13, 2018 by Marty2019

[iacas]

I made a bet with someone back in January that he'd finish top 10 at Augusta. We bet a meal. I'm feeling pretty good about that right now.

But anything can happen. One or two bad shots, bam, out of contention.

[The Hook Meister]

I can see Tiger winning a couple of tournaments, and maybe one major. He is playing consistent enough, he just needs to shake a little more rust off. He came close last week.

[ChrisP]

My first post here since August (I think?) and since Tiger returned. I must say I am shocked at how he's come back and recovered. I saw him during the third round at the Valspar...watched him warm-up, was front row to see his chip in on 9 and literally could have touched him on 13 when he was over the green....and the excitement around him is amazing. It's great for the game and golf is in a great spot right now. While I've never been a fan of what he was off the course, on the course I love seeing him compete again at what is getting close to his 2013-form. Not there yet, but closing in. If he keeps going in this direction, I could see him getting back to 2013-form by the Players or the summer. But we'll see.

I am encouraged to see him swinging at it hard, but at the same time nervous because it was the hard swing that gave him back problems the last 10 years. So I'm hoping he can hold up. But from 2014-17, he was swinging "too easy" for Tiger and I think he's realized there's only one way he can compete, at that is going at it full-go 100%. And he's been showing that the last few weeks. 

As for predicting the rest of his season, I think he'll compete in 2 or 3 majors, but think the talent and competition is just too tough out there and going to be just better than him and he won't win any. But I'll go with him winning 2-3 PGA tourneys by the end of the year. Hope I'm wrong, though, because I'd like to see him win a major or two this year and make that run at Jack's record much more interesting the next few years.

Edited March 20, 2018 by ChrisP

[brocks]

17 hours ago, ChrisP said:

My first post here since August (I think?) and since Tiger returned. I must say I am shocked at how he's come back and recovered. I saw him during the third round at the Valspar...watched him warm-up, was front row to see his chip in on 9 and literally could have touched him on 13 when he was over the green....and the excitement around him is amazing. It's great for the game and golf is in a great spot right now. While I've never been a fan of what he was off the course, on the course I love seeing him compete again at what is getting close to his 2013-form. Not there yet, but closing in. If he keeps going in this direction, I could see him getting back to 2013-form by the Players or the summer. But we'll see.

I am encouraged to see him swinging at it hard, but at the same time nervous because it was the hard swing that gave him back problems the last 10 years. So I'm hoping he can hold up. But from 2014-17, he was swinging "too easy" for Tiger and I think he's realized there's only one way he can compete, at that is going at it full-go 100%. And he's been showing that the last few weeks. 

As for predicting the rest of his season, I think he'll compete in 2 or 3 majors, but think the talent and competition is just too tough out there and going to be just better than him and he won't win any. But I'll go with him winning 2-3 PGA tourneys by the end of the year. Hope I'm wrong, though, because I'd like to see him win a major or two this year and make that run at Jack's record much more interesting the next few years.

Very nice post, and I agree with almost all of it.  My only quibble is that I don't think he's consistent enough yet to win 2 or 3 events this year.  Maybe next year, IF his back holds up.

But when he does get to the point where he can win, I think the event won't matter.  Tiger is just as likely to win a major as he is any other event he plays (of course, I wouldn't say that if he played low-rent events, but he doesn't).  During his prime, his winning percentage in majors was higher than in regular tour events, and there are now so many international players on tour that the fields in the elite events aren't that much weaker than the majors.  Look at last week - you had Rory, Henrik, Rose, Fowler, Matsuyama, Day, etc.  The slight increase in the depth of field is IMO offset by the fact that Tiger is at his best in the big events, while others are not used to that pressure.

[iacas]

20 minutes ago, brocks said:

Very nice post, and I agree with almost all of it.  My only quibble is that I don't think he's consistent enough yet to win 2 or 3 events this year.  Maybe next year, IF his back holds up.

Devil's advocate… it's March. He's played like five events, and finished 2nd and 5th already. After two years off.

20 minutes ago, brocks said:

and there are now so many international players on tour that the fields in the elite events aren't that much weaker than the majors.  Look at last week - you had Rory, Henrik, Rose, Fowler, Matsuyama, Day, etc.  The slight increase in the depth of field is IMO offset by the fact that Tiger is at his best in the big events, while others are not used to that pressure.

I don't think it's quite as slight as you're making it out to be. I'm not even sure it's slight at The Masters, which has the weakest field of the majors.

But… I'm not all that concerned either, not enough to do the math, because you can only beat the field who plays.

[BallStriker]

I, for one, always get a chuckle when I hear someone use the phrase "weak field" when talking about a PGA Tour event

[Zeph]

It's all relative.

 

Is the PGA tour field weak in any tournament relative to amateur players? No.

Is the PGA tour field weak in certain tournaments relative to the best possible field? Yes.

[3jacker]

On 3/22/2018 at 2:50 AM, Zeph said:

It's all relative.

 

Is the PGA tour field weak in any tournament relative to amateur players? No.

Is the PGA tour field weak in certain tournaments relative to the best possible field? Yes.

Hey, if you're not too careful about who you let in, you might end up with a Ben Curtis or Paul Lawrie winning the damn thing!

[Groucho Valentine]

I thought there could be a chance Tiger won this season if he stayed healthy, but now I'm not so sure. I actually think Augusta is his best shot at a win this season.  He's got to get ahold of the driver. He cant be missing 50-60 yards off line like he does with that club sometimes. Most guys hit one off the map like that maybe once or twice a tournament. Theres a chance it could happen whenever Tiger pulls the club. Don't like those odds, yo.