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Only Bad Golfers are Lucky


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6 hours ago, Piz said:

Book alert!  Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Fooled by Randomness.

Adding this to my list.

12 hours ago, Denny Bang Bang said:

It’s relative, is what I’m getting at

Yup.  This is too subjective to nail down, even as a generalization.  So from my perspective, "luck" will factor in more with worse players since their intended target is more often than not missed, bringing into play external variables that could can be seen as "luck".  A good player hits their intended target because that's what they wanted to do.  the outcome was influenced by their skill.

I'm not a good player, but am aware of my capabilities when I put a good swing on the ball.  As an example, I hooked my tee shot into the woods. The only way I'll get a look at the green is good luck.  And I do!  There's a 6 foot gap between two trees and I'm 80 yards out.  Low punch 5 iron goes between the trees lands short of the green and rolls up to 12' from the cup.  2-putt par.  Did I get lucky that I split the trees?  No, that was my intended target.  Just as the good player would have hit his intended target of the fairway, then done the same for their approach, no luck involved.  Assuming they 2-putt for par, the only way I (not a good golfer) got the same end result, was due to luck allowing me a look at the green after a bad shot.

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2 minutes ago, Foot Wedge said:

Yup.  This is too subjective to nail down, even as a generalization.  So from my perspective, "luck" will factor in more with worse players since their intended target is more often than not missed, bringing into play external variables that could can be seen as "luck".  A good player hits their intended target because that's what they wanted to do.  the outcome was influenced by their skill.

I'm not a good player, but am aware of my capabilities when I put a good swing on the ball.  As an example, I hooked my tee shot into the woods. The only way I'll get a look at the green is good luck.  And I do!  There's a 6 foot gap between two trees and I'm 80 yards out.  Low punch 5 iron goes between the trees lands short of the green and rolls up to 12' from the cup.  2-putt par.  Did I get lucky that I split the trees?  No, that was my intended target.  Just as the good player would have hit his intended target of the fairway, then done the same for their approach, no luck involved.  Assuming they 2-putt for par, the only way I (not a good golfer) got the same end result, was due to luck allowing me a look at the green after a bad shot.

I agree with a lot of this, though I do want to state that sometimes even the good shot...the one that does what a player wants it to do..is in fact good luck. This is almost exclusively true for poorer players (which I would consider myself). If a high handicapper has that same punch shot 20 times they may not make it back out of the trees, much less have a chance at par the VAST majority of the time. If they do pull it off..it was more than likely luck...and not something that is very repeatable. 

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I think Lee (and myself, and a few others here) are putting it like this:

If you rate a shot on a 1-10 scale…

A good player is going to hit a lot of 7s and 8s. If that shot turns into a 9 or a 10, that's good luck. But there's a lot more room for it to turn into bad luck.

A shot that is destined, without luck of any kind, to be a 2 becoming a 1 may not even register as "bad luck," but when it becomes a 5 - even though that's still not a "great shot," it's still good luck and seen as such. A ball destined to plug in a bunker that hits a rake and stays out may be that 2 -> 5 type shot. Still off the green, but good luck.

A ball that is headed toward the center of the green that hits a sprinkler head and bounces into the rough long… That's a 7 turning into a 4.

So, while the actual amounts of "good" and "bad" luck might be close to 50/50, the cumulative value may actually favor the poor player, because they only have so many points to give. A bad shot headed OB can almost only result in good luck or no luck (change) at all, and a shot headed toward the target can only really get bad luck (or no change).

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7 minutes ago, HJJ003 said:

If a high handicapper has that same punch shot 20 times they may not make it back out of the trees, much less have a chance at par the VAST majority of the time. If they do pull it off..it was more than likely luck...and not something that is very repeatable. 

That's a great point, I should have mentioned the low punch long iron is actually a shot I'm familiar with and trust (sadly).  If I had never tried that shot then I agree, even pulling it off is lucky.  So in that particular situation, I resembled a "good" player, in the sense that in order for the shot to be poor, "bad luck" would have had to come into play such as hitting a sprinkler head.  I like the approach above of quantifying "luck" by rating impact on shot quality. So to circle back, on this hole where I resembled both a bad and good player, my shot quality -> result quality went like this.

Tee shot, into woods, but between a gap in the trees: 2 -> 6 (terrible shot, yet ended up with a pretty good look at the green. +4, significant positive luck influence)

Choked down, delofted long iron: 7.5 -> 8.5 (I know this shot and it did exactly as expected, but happened to ride the break on the green to end up a little closer to the hole. +1, still would have been 15-20' birdie chance so minimal luck influence)

A good player would have landed in the fairway (8->8), safely on the green (8->8).  Total "luck" impact: 0

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I will not attempt to quantify with exact ratios but I believe both good and bad golfers can have good and bad luck.  I do believe that good golfers get a higher percentage of bad luck since their shots are normally not in as much jeopardy as a bad golfer.  Likewise, the bad golfers have more good luck for the same reason. 

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I agree with you the better the player the more chance you have to get bad or unlucky bounces. If you hit a majority of your shots in the direction you want them to go and you strike it well there is less room for "lucky" hops as the ball is already going where it's intended.

If you don't strike it well, and/or you hit it all over the place the opportunity for fortuitous bounces greatly increases as your ball is often headed in the wrong direction. 

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It might also be just a statistical thing.

Good shots are the outlier for bad golfers, so out of the many bad shots they make, they're bound to get one or two good bounces.

Good golfers typically hit shots where they intend and the bad result is usually a sprinkler in the fairway or something like that. It's also rarer for a good golfer to have a (un)lucky bounce.

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I agree that a bad golfer has more opportunities for good luck, but I think they also have more opportunities for bad luck than a good golfer.

Sure, if you hit it in the woods you might get a lucky bounce out.  But more often the mediocre player just hits near the woods.  Or too close to the water.  If it bounces straight it won’t go in but with bad luck it will.  The good player won’t usually hit it close enough to be in danger.  Also if he does end up in the woods it could be completely lost (unluckier than average), able to be punched out (about average), or with a clear shot (lucky).

I don’t think the default on a poor shot should be though of as a completely terrible result, with anything better being lucky.  Rather there is a range of results, and that range is much wider than with a good players good shot.  Hence, more luck in both directions for the bad player.

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I agree that, in general, a poor golfer has more chances to get a bounce (lucky or unlucky). They are not hitting the fairways & greens nearly as often, so as luck comes more into play as you get closer to hazards, trees and OOB the player who is more apt to get near those are also more likely to have a "bad" bounce take them into the hazard, trees or OOB.

Conversely, there are several things that affect the PGA players and not regular golfers - things like the gallery and stands. I have never received a good bounce from hitting it into the gallery, nor am I able to aim for the stands as a bail-out if I want to use a backstop.

Players play, tough players win!

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Luck vs. Low probability 

Luck is a result that is not expected at all. This doesn't happen in golf as much as people seem to think. 

A low probability shot is not technically unexpected, just less expected.  

e.g. A 50 footer for eagle is not luck, a bounce off sprinkler head on to the green or even OB is not luck. Most bounces are not luck IMO.  

e.g. Now a bounce off of a moving car on the street back on to the fairway - well, that is surely more LIKE luck. 

In context of this thread, honestly I don't know about this luck business at all. The way I see it (and prolly what Trevino intended to say) good golfers have more high probability results which is good result from a good shot. Deviation is usually less than good. 

The bad golfers invite more bounces and end up more often with low probability outcomes. If their stock expected outcome is 'bad' then yeah, then most time any deviation from the stock outcome is usually good.   

Edited by GolfLug

Vishal S.

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19 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Luck is a result that is not expected at all. This doesn't happen in golf as much as people seem to think. 

I don't agree with the definition.

If you hit a ball at a tree on the left side of the hole, bad luck is the ball bouncing OB left, good luck is the ball bouncing off the right side of the tree back into the fairway.

Both can be expected (not at the same time of course). Both are what I call "luck."

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14 minutes ago, iacas said:

I don't agree with the definition.

If you hit a ball at a tree on the left side of the hole, bad luck is the ball bouncing OB left, good luck is the ball bouncing off the right side of the tree back into the fairway.

Both can be expected (not at the same time of course). Both are what I call "luck."

If you flip a coin 10 times and call heads every time... if you have 5 heads you didn't have good luck or bad luck, that is the expectation.

If your expectation of ending on the fairway after hitting a tree is 10%... and you end up on the fairway 10% of the time you weren't lucky... if you end up on the fairway 20% of the time you were lucky.

Looking at the result from a single event doesn't work.  You're likely not to hit the fairway after hitting the tree, with a single event that doesn't hit the fairway only had bad luck.  Looking at it that way, bad golfers have more bad luck.

Edited by No Mulligans
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17 minutes ago, No Mulligans said:

If you flip a coin 10 times and call heads every time... if you have 5 heads you didn't have good luck or bad luck, that is the expectation.

If you flip a coin and bet on heads five times in a row, that's good luck, and if you bet on tails, it's bad luck.

Luck isn't just stuff that's completely unexpected. Luck is which way something that can go several ways actually goes. (Or doesn't go).

17 minutes ago, No Mulligans said:

If your expectation of ending on the fairway after hitting a tree is 10%... and you end up on the fairway 10% of the time you weren't lucky... if you end up on the fairway 20% of the time you were lucky.

Again, I don't agree with that definition.

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1 hour ago, No Mulligans said:

If you flip a coin 10 times and call heads every time... if you have 5 heads you didn't have good luck or bad luck, that is the expectation.

If your expectation of ending on the fairway after hitting a tree is 10%... and you end up on the fairway 10% of the time you weren't lucky... if you end up on the fairway 20% of the time you were lucky.

Looking at the result from a single event doesn't work.  You're likely not to hit the fairway after hitting the tree, with a single event that doesn't hit the fairway only had bad luck.  Looking at it that way, bad golfers have more bad luck.

It seems like if you hit the trunk of the tree you have a roughly 50/50 chance going either way. Keep in mind that, I have had a lot of experience hitting into trees in the past. :-D

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7 hours ago, iacas said:

Let's say a ball hits a ridge, and just the moisture in the green determines how softly the ball lands and whether it falls to one side of the ridge or another. That's a good player's version of "luck."

If a player knows there's a ridge to hit or miss, wouldn't skill and judgment determine the result more times than not? I guess when my shot rolls too far or not far enough, I'm automatically blaming my lack of skill or judgment every time. Of course, I don't know what it's like to be that precise, so maybe I'm wrong.

2 hours ago, GolfLug said:

Luck is a result that is not expected at all. This doesn't happen in golf as much as people seem to think. 

I tend to agree with this to some extent. Hitting a sprinkler head, or a loud, sudden noise on the downswing might qualify as bad luck. Landing in a divot? I don't know... that's just so much a part of the game. If either type of player hits a good shot, the odds are exactly the same for the ball rolling through or coming to rest in a divot. Plus, those things even out for all players in the same way that a ball kicks and either lands in trouble or avoids it. They adversely affect a worse player more than a better player, but it wouldn't be "unluckier" for either.

Hitting trees on a regular basis is just crappy golf - regardless of the results. There isn't enough luck in the world to make up for that lack of skill (I'm talking about myself, not trying to insult anyone else).

 

Jon

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@JonMA1, no. That’s not what I said.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
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