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iacas

Rolling Balls Yield More Aces

Ace Theory  

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you agree or like my friend’s theory of aces?

    • Yes
      33
    • No
      6


64 posts / 4604 viewsLast Reply

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19 minutes ago, Jeremie Boop said:

What in the world are you talking about..... The more variables introduced the more luck involved. 

No issues, JB.  It came across that way.  Take from my post that I disagree, I don't think the level of luck involved is increased at all by those factors since the luck can be good or bad so it balances out.  Simply stated - you get your shot dispersion (that's under you control) to get it near, the rest is luck - whether rolling or not.  And rolling increases the chance of the ball intercepting the hole.

Edited by rehmwa

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11 hours ago, iacas said:

A friend of mine has a theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one because their ball rolls far and thus has a higher chance of striking the flagstick or running across the hole than a better player who flies the ball to the hole, hops it once or twice, and then the ball quickly comes to a stop.

He says this explains why so many poorer players have so many holes in one. That and they always aim at the hole. ;-) I think his idea has some merit. Rolling covers more ground.

What do you think?

I mis-understood at first... but reading the thread, I realized you meant "a theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one on balls hit close to the hole"...so I voted "yes".

I definitely think that if you took some number of shots heading exactly towards the hole, half on a high trajectory and half rolling, more of the rolling balls will end up going in.

I don't the difference is great enough to explain the perceived variance though; I think that is simply a result of there being more poorer players than good ones (as @colin007 mentioned), and the effect of remembering when a terrible golfer has one but not when someone you'd expect to does.  For example, I know another high handicapper like me who I remember has a HIO, because I remember the story...but, thinking right now of the four best golfers I know, I couldn't tell you whether three of them have one or not.

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I agree. I have a friend who shoots in the 120's and has 3, 2 of them were short of the green and rolled in. The other hit far right side of the green and track a good 40' to the hole. 

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On 7/10/2018 at 9:27 AM, saevel25 said:

I wonder how many hole in ones on the PGA Tour are the ball rolling in versus the ones that hop in or slam dunk.

I think a ball rolling has a higher chance of going in. Its probably not moving as fast as a ball that bounced. If a ball bounces into the flag, it probably has a higher chance of being deflected versus being helped if the ball is rolling. I vote yes.

I was thinking this as well.

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I agree with the premise that the rolling ball has a better chance of going in the hole. I agree that higher handicap players are more likely to hit a rolling ball, and for balls that go on the green in the vicinity of the hole have a higher chance of going in.

However, I voted no, because the first sentence says ".....theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one because ...."  Thus, I interpret the paragraph as being a theory that higher handicappers are almost more likely to get a hole-in one, and this is why. I don't think they are more likely to get a hole in one, because their (our) balls are less likely to be on the green at all, much less in the vicinity of the hole.

If I am misinterpreting the paragraph, and it really means, " if a high handicapper's ball reaches the green, it is more likely to go in because it is rolling, " then I would agree.

For the record, my current handicap is 14.4, close to where it has been for most of my golfing life. I have made one hole -in-one. It is unofficial, because while my wife was riding with me, she was not playing and therefore not an official witness. It was about a 110 yards, and I hit a pitching wedge. I can't say if I jarred it or it rolled in, because it was a blind tee. I hit what felt like a good shot and saw it fly straight toward the hole. When I got there, I was pissed because the ball did not appear to be on the green. I looked all around and in the rough beyond,  before finally finding the ball in the hole.

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1 hour ago, dbuck said:

However, I voted no,

You didn’t read that as it was written. The word you seem to have given almost no weight to is “almost.”

I’ve clarified this now multiple times.

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Never thought of this before, but I voted Yes. I usually leave my approach shots short, that's why I switched back to a 2-pcs ball, because it will release forward a few feet after landing, and sometimes I can trundle on up to the green.

Last summer I narrowly missed a hole in one on a 156 yard Par 3. The ball landed a few feet short of the pin and rolled straight to pin before lipping  around and out and giving me a one foot birdie. I know that it lipped out because I watched it change direction 90 degrees. Point being, the ball released forward.

If I think about how many times I've holed out my chip shot with a 9-iron, just keeping the ball low, it makes perfect sense. Get the ball down on the green, rolling like a putt, and good things can happen.

Going forward is easier than rolling back.

 

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I believe your friend is correct about a rolling ball having a better chance to go in the hole. I had an ace in May of 2005 on a downhill hole playing about 175 yards. The ball landed about 10 feet short of the hole, hopped forward and barely trickled into the hole. Since then I have had three other close calls. One hit the flag three feet above the green and dropped in front of the hole and rolled a few feet away. Another hit a foot or so in front of the pin, skipped into the pin and spun off to the right. Earlier this year I was playing alone and hit a shot that I thought was going right at the flag. I started yelling "do not go in the hole!" The impact was about ten inches right of the cup, it pitched forward about two feet and spun back to within 4 or 5 inches! I'd certainly like to get another Ace, but not without witnesses!

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Notice how close he hit the ball sometimes, but because the ball didn't roll very far… it had less chance of going in.

He probably would have had more success with a back pin, landing the ball short, and letting it roll up to the hole.

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My 11 year old daughter this year in August got a H.I.O. 135 yards with a 3-wood with about 20' of roll. 

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Just watched the video that guy is a freaking idiot. Throwing clubs? SMH...

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I have played with a guy at an executive course (has 1 par 4). He is 84 years only and started playing in his 60’s. He hits driver or 3w off the tee for even a 100 yard hole. He had 8 aces as of last year and when I played with him this year he was up to 9 meaning he got one as an 84 year old. He probably cards a 36 or more on this 28 par course. I have yet to have an ace in my life except I did knock one in from 135 yards on a mulligan.

He has a pull/fade ball flight that carries maybe 100 yards. Most of his shots land in front of the green, bounce on and then roll front to back. Rarely does the ball hold the green. I usually get 0 to 8 yards of roll depending on firmness and club used. A lot of the older guys have multiple aces and it is because then get a lot of roll (and they play about every day).

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On 7/10/2018 at 8:47 AM, iacas said:

A friend of mine has a theory that higher handicap players are almost more likely to get a hole-in-one because their ball rolls far and thus has a higher chance of striking the flagstick or running across the hole than a better player who flies the ball to the hole, hops it once or twice, and then the ball quickly comes to a stop.

He says this explains why so many poorer players have so many holes in one. That and they always aim at the hole. ;-) I think his idea has some merit. Rolling covers more ground.

What do you think?

Totally disagree.  And the proof for me is that pros routinely have many holes-in-one.  Art Wall had 40 holes-in-one.  Tiger has had 18 holes-in-one.  And the list goes on and on.  Better players routinely have multiple holes-in-one.  Another thing:  The better players' balls ALSO roll when they hit the green.  They don't just plug.  The better plays aims for the hole.  The hacker aims for the green.  iacas, if your friend was watching a high handicapper playing a low handicapper, would he really put his money on the low handicapper getting a hole-in-one before the pro?  What a bad bet that would be.

Well, that's what I think.

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2 hours ago, Herkimer said:

Totally disagree.  And the proof for me is that pros routinely have many holes-in-one.

They're better, and they play a lot more golf.

But among average golfers, there are what I think a surprising number of higher handicap golfers with 3, 4, 5+ holes in one, and a surprising number of lower handicap golfers with 0 or 1 only.

2 hours ago, Herkimer said:

Another thing:  The better players' balls ALSO roll when they hit the green. They don't just plug.

They often don't roll nearly as far, no.

2 hours ago, Herkimer said:

The better plays aims for the hole. The hacker aims for the green.

Ha, actually better players often aim toward the safe side of the hole, while a lot of bogey golfers always aim at the flag. I think you'd be surprised by this one.

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i'm sure you've seen the Par 3 tournament at The Masters every year on Wednesday.  I've seen quite a number of holes-in-one there.  In fact, Spieth got up and got a hole-in-one.  Fowler got up next and also put it in the hole.  And so many others who come so close.  Please don't try to convince me that high handicappers would even come close.  (I did see an amateur get a hole-in-one there.  It was Jack's grandson, who did it last April.  I never saw Jack so excited and with tears in his eyes.  It was quite a moment.  And, by the way, his grandson swings like a pro.)

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8 minutes ago, Herkimer said:

i'm sure you've seen the Par 3 tournament at The Masters every year on Wednesday.  I've seen quite a number of holes-in-one there.

C'mon man. The holes there are set up for them. As you noted… Jack Nicklaus's grandson made an ace there last year despite "caddying" for the first several holes and making the ace without warming up.

Some buddies played the course (in a threesome) twice last year or the year before that and between them they had three aces. They're ~9 handicaps.

A rolling ball covers more ground. That can make up for a bit.

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iacas, maybe this will change your mind: 

Occasionally special events host a hole in one contest, where prizes as expensive as a new car, or cash awards sometimes reaching $4 million are offered if a contestant records a hole in one. Usually such expensive prizes are backed by an insurance company who offers prize indemnification services.  Actuaries at such companies have calculated the chance of an average golfer making a hole in one at approximately 12,500 to 1, and the odds of a tour professional at 2,500 to 1

From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hole_in_one

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6 hours ago, Herkimer said:

Actuaries at such companies have calculated the chance of an average golfer making a hole in one at approximately 12,500 to 1, and the odds of a tour professional at 2,500 to 1

With the assumption that most of those hole-in-one challenges require the hole to be over a certain length.

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