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Mark Broadie Working on Measuring How Players Play Under Pressure

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It's very early stages and nothing concrete yet. It'll be interesting to see what his results say about Woods vs Norman/Montgomerie and the non obvious things that come up.

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“There are now better measures of performance [with Strokes Gained],” says Broadie, a Columbia Business School professor. “But currently there aren’t any statistics that measure performance in the clutch or performance under pressure, so the idea is to fill that void by taking Strokes Gained with a measure of pressure and putting the two together to get a measure of performance under pressure.”

 

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Mark Broadie, the analytics guru and father of the PGA Tour's Strokes Gained metric, has been working on what he hopes is golf's next great statistic, a formula that measures one's ability to play under pressure.

 

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One of the problems I think he'll face in trying to come up with this sort of thing is that the sample sizes are going to be ridiculously small.

Someone hitting one or two good - or poor - shots can really skew the results, even though those shots might have just been random and within their normal pattern for that event.

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On ‎12‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 2:05 PM, iacas said:

One of the problems I think he'll face in trying to come up with this sort of thing is that the sample sizes are going to be ridiculously small.

Someone hitting one or two good - or poor - shots can really skew the results, even though those shots might have just been random and within their normal pattern for that event.

I agree about the small sample size, and also I'm wondering about how he will define shots taken under pressure. Do only leaders have pressure, when within 2 or 3 shots of the lead, or the cutline, or maybe in late season tournaments when it matters to keep your card or move on into the next playoff event.
Defining pressure seems subjective, at least to me; for some it might be a $2 Nassau, or the first tee shot at a busy muni course.

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Is this guy’s research funded out of Las Vegas?

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On 12/4/2018 at 11:05 AM, iacas said:

One of the problems I think he'll face in trying to come up with this sort of thing is that the sample sizes are going to be ridiculously small.

Someone hitting one or two good - or poor - shots can really skew the results, even though those shots might have just been random and within their normal pattern for that event.

Totally agree with this.  Most guys will have zero holes that we think of as a really high pressure situation – say, back nine in the hunt on Sunday, especially at WGC or majors.  And those that don't have zero holes in those situations will probably have no more than a couple dozen.  And the pros proportion of bad shots is in the range that with so few shots taken in high pressure situations, just randomly you'd be totally unsurprised by zero or one, or a bunch.

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3 hours ago, Carl3 said:

Is this guy’s research funded out of Las Vegas?

Huh?

mnb2

Staff Type: Faculty Short title: Prof. Full title: Carson Family Professor of Business Departmental Admin: Department: Decision, Risk, and Operations Hide Title: , Staff Type: Faculty Short title: Academic Advisory Board...

 

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8 hours ago, iacas said:

Huh?

My attempt at humor. I am thinking you could make some money using his data betting on golf especially with this latest line of research on how the top golfers fare under pressure. Don’t they make odds in Vegas and bet on golf?

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1 hour ago, Carl3 said:

My attempt at humor. I am thinking you could make some money using his data betting on golf especially with this latest line of research on how the top golfers fare under pressure. Don’t they make odds in Vegas and bet on golf?

You should use it against your buddies. "According to Mark Broadie Jim, you are going to miss this putt." :-P

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