What's Worse: 50 Yds Away in Rough or 100 Ft Putt?

[buttputt40]

I feel so great landing on the green but then I realize its a 100 foot putt. 

[Piz]

I'll take the 100 foot putt.  I can get down in three from there.  50 yards away, in the rough, may not offer any sort of shot at all.  There are exceptions, of course, but I'd rather be on the green.

[Patch]

I consider myself an above average putter, so I would putt, rather than pitch from 50 yards, no matter what the lie conditions are. Out of the rough, or not.  It wouldn't matter. 

The old saying if you can putt , then putt. If you can't putt, then chip. If you can't chip, then pitch rings true every time. 

[David in FL]

Ask the question this way...

...which is better, 150’ away from a bad lie, or 100’ away from a perfect lie?

Case closed.

 

[fever]

60 wedge out of the rough ever time

Edited December 18, 2018 by fever

[Herkimer]

50 yards away in the rough.  I love putting anyhow.

[boogielicious]

The putt.

[buttputt40]

Sometimes out of rough you can get within 10 feet which would be 2 shots.

It probably is a tie because the odds of a good

strike out of rough is only half at best, especially with climate change

making the grass grow higher. 

[DaveP043]

In all but the strangest of circumstances I'd rather putt than chip.

[klineka]

 

2 hours ago, buttputt40 said:

Sometimes out of rough you can get within 10 feet which would be 2 shots.

It probably is a tie because the odds of a good

strike out of rough is only half at best, especially with climate change

making the grass grow higher. 

2 hours ago, boogielicious said:

The putt.

 

No no no no no. This is so wrong. It has absolutely nothing to do with climate change.

The 50 yd shot out of the rough is worse than a 100 ft putt and its not even close.

 

On the PGA tour in 2018, from 50-75yds in the rough, the average proximity to the hole was 25 feet. 

There were some very very good players with short games much better than you and I that averaged over 30 ft proximity to the hole (Dustin Johnson 31' 4", Francesco Molinari 30' 3", Patrick Reed 36' 10")

That means for amateurs the proximity number is 40+ feet easily.

If you, as an amateur hit a ball within 10 feet when you are 50 yds away in the rough, that is a very very good shot and an outlier compared to average for amateurs. There is also a decent chance for an amateur to miss the green completely, which would likely mean another 2-3 shots to get in the hole. 

PGA pros need an average of just under 2 putts (1.92 ish) to get the ball in the hole from 25 feet. They aren't going to miss the green very often from 50 yds, but I'm sure it happens, so lets say thats like 1.05 strokes on average to get on the green for PGA tour players from 50 yds in the rough.

Add those numbers up, 2.97 strokes on average, so basically 3 strokes on average for PGA tour players to get the ball in the hole from 50 yds. 

The PGA tour stats doesnt show data on 100 foot putts, but it is highly unlikely that PGA tour players are averaging over 3 putts to hole out from 100 ft on the green. They probably 3 putt a lot, but there is also a good amount of the time where they 2 putt, and the only way that the average could rise over 3 is with four-putts, and there were only 89 four-putts out of 6896 rounds on the PGA tour in 2018 (Only one four-putt for every 77 rounds played)

When putting from 60 feet, it takes PGA tour players on average 2.21 strokes to get the ball in the hole, so even adding .15 for every 10 ft back until you reach 100 ft, that would still only be 2.81 strokes on average to get the ball in the hole when putting from 100 feet, and its likely that every 10 feet adds something closer to .10 strokes, which would put the average closer to 2.61 for PGA tour players. Split the difference and let's call it 2.75 strokes.

That is basically a quarter of a shot less to get the ball in the hole when putting from 100 ft vs in the rough from 50 yds, and these are players with the best short games in the world.

Amateurs are probably close to 3.5 strokes from 50 yds in the rough, because they'll miss the green a decent amount of the time, and if they get it on the green in 1 shot and hit their average proximity of 40 feet, there's still a 30% chance that a 90-golfer would 3 putt from there, which would mean getting in the hole in 4 shots from 50 yds out in the rough.

If a 90-golfer has a 100 ft putt and leaves the first putt 20 feet short, a 90-golfer will three putt 8% of the time from 20 feet. 90-golfers average 2.51 strokes from 60 feet, so even if you add .2 strokes for every 10 feet you go back, that is 3.31 strokes for a 90-golfer when putting from 100 feet.  (3.1 strokes for a scratch golfer, which means that a scratch golfer putting from 100 feet and a PGA player from 50 yds in the rough are almost identical on average.)

 

It's not even close. Being 50 yds away in the rough is statistically worse than having a 100 foot putt. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by klineka

[saevel25]

2 hours ago, buttputt40 said:

Sometimes out of rough you can get within 10 feet which would be 2 shots. It probably is a tie because the odds of a good strike out of rough is only half at best, especially with climate change making the grass grow higher. 

Expected Strokes from 100 FT is around 2.60. Expected Strokes from 50 yards in the rough is around 2.88.

PGA Tour players will average around 20 FT from the rough at 50 yards. So, expecting 10 FT would be exceptional.

To answer the OP, I would take a 100 FT putt.

16 minutes ago, klineka said:

The PGA tour stats doesnt show data on 100 foot putts, but it is highly unlikely that PGA tour players are averaging over 3 putts to hole out from 100 ft on the green. They probably 3 putt a lot, but there is also a good amount of the time where they 2 putt, and the only way that the average could rise over 3 is with four-putts, and there were only 89 four-putts out of 6896 rounds on the PGA tour in 2018 (Only one four-putt for every 77 rounds played)

I would guess they would average around 10 FT on their lag putt. Extrapolating the 100 FT length from Every Shot Counts, the expected strokes is around 2.6. Take a stroke off that for the first putt and you get around the expected strokes for a 10 FT. This is a rough estimate, but it's probably close. Inside 10% the distance of your putt over 40 FT is a good goal for lag putting.

 

[iacas]

@buttputt40 is some weird sort of troll, posting nonsense type stuff and yet people take it seriously.

11 hours ago, David in FL said:

Ask the question this way...

...which is better, 150’ away from a bad lie, or 100’ away from a perfect lie?

Case closed.

This.

[mcanadiens]

About the only time it would be anything other than the putt would be a crazy green where it is actually impossible to get the ball to the hole. Like one of those weird deals where you got a lot of fringe or rough between you and the hole and everything else is on a big down slope towards disaster.

You know, the sort of greens I wouldn't play if you paid me.

 

 

[klineka]

9 minutes ago, mcanadiens said:

About the only time it would be anything other than the putt would be a crazy green where it is actually impossible to get the ball to the hole. Like one of those weird deals where you got a lot of fringe or rough between you and the hole and everything else is on a big down slope towards disaster.

Even in that scenario if you had no choice but to putt sideways or something away from the hole and ended up at like 40 ft to the hole after your first putt, you'd still 2 putt that a decent amount of the time, which would be the same as pitching on from 50 yds to 40 ft.

Better yet, just do this 

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by klineka

[Lihu]

14 hours ago, buttputt40 said:

I feel so great landing on the green but then I realize its a 100 foot putt. 

I’d rather be on the green with a 100 foot putt OR have a 50 yard putt. NOT BOTH 🤪

Hope this doesn’t happen too often though 😁

14 hours ago, Piz said:

I'll take the 100 foot putt.  I can get down in three from there.  50 yards away, in the rough, may not offer any sort of shot at all.  There are exceptions, of course, but I'd rather be on the green.

^^^

[rehmwa]

14 hours ago, Patch said:

The old saying if you can putt , then putt. If you can't putt, then chip. If you can't chip, then pitch rings true every time. 

This - a bad putt ends up as close as a great chip or pitch.

[buttputt40]

Is not a troll as the power and uplift of hitting from the rough may be better for many then putting on a slow green when a tap may just be as good as a hard hit.  

[bkuehn1952]

50 yards away in the rough is worse unless one imagines some highly unusual situations.