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Over/Under On Improvement In 1 Month


bones75
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Over under on my buddy's improvement in 1 month  

53 members have voted

  1. 1. My buddy thinks he can improve 10 strokes in one month.

    • I'm taking the over - he'll improve at least 10 strokes.
      7
    • I'm taking the under - he'll improve less than 10 strokes.
      46


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I'm taking the over just because I think he can improve 10 strokes by then with an entire month to practice beforehand and he can fall back on the feelings of when he played to an 8. I'm not so sure on averaging that though. I just think back to myself when I didn't play for a year. I came out and played well the first round and then the next few were bad. It did not take me long to get back to scoring pretty decent. I felt like once I got the short game feel back, I could score pretty good. I say he gets to 86 but does not average that by any means.

Bryan A
"Your desire to change must be greater than your desire to stay the same"

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13 hours ago, TN94z said:

I'm taking the over just because I think he can improve 10 strokes by then with an entire month to practice beforehand and he can fall back on the feelings of when he played to an 8. I'm not so sure on averaging that though. I just think back to myself when I didn't play for a year. I came out and played well the first round and then the next few were bad. It did not take me long to get back to scoring pretty decent. I felt like once I got the short game feel back, I could score pretty good. I say he gets to 86 but does not average that by any means.

I've had the same experience, and so has he. I took 9 months off once for an injury, was a 6-7 index, and first day back I played a difficult course (Pelican Hill in southern california). I was so mortified of not even making contact that I swung ridiculously easy.  The result?  I shot a 79 and was as long (if not longer) than I was before (blues, not tips tho). Just 1 pre-round range session and that's it in 9 months.  He's had a bunch of similar stories too.  That said, I agree that 3 rounds is a completely different story.

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  • 1 month later...

Update. Not sure yet if he'll win the bet, but progress can happen quickly if you're dedicated and getting back to a once good form. Trip is weekend after next.

Progress: Since 3/1 when he left his last job, he's been played 2-3 times per week, taking lessons every week, on a workout schedule with his TPI guy, and been at the range on many of the other days. On his home course he is averaging ~83 the last 1.5 weeks (four rounds played at ~6800yds rated 72.3). One of the guys from the trip has played with him a few times and personally watched him go from shooting high 90s to low 80's over the last year (granted he only played a few times previous to getting back on the golf horse). His old index of 8-10 was comprised mostly of tournament scores, so if anything we think it would error on the high side.

Not sure what this will translate for the trip as he's never played any of the courses, and with Torrey Pines South the last day which we'll play from blues (Taupe) at about 7000 yds.  He's got almost $400 on the line now for the over/under on him, not to mention the other bets. I've got $60 on him personally.  Super fun!

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7 minutes ago, bones75 said:

Not sure what this will translate for the trip as he's never played any of the courses, and with Torrey Pines South the last day which we'll play from blues (Taupe) at about 7000 yds.  

A bit off topic, but just wanted to make sure you guys were aware of the course maintenance that is happening on Torrey Pines South, as based on what that website says, looks like it will play quite a bit under 7000 yards when you guys are there.

https://www.sandiego.gov/park-and-recreation/golf/torreypines/southcourseproject

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@klineka omw thanks so much!  I just read the link. This was my responsibility as i planned the courses and live here... oops.  I called when i booked it in Feb, and they told me something about maintenance, but the guy i talked to didn't give me make me feel it was that major (I thought maybe aeration and such).

I will look into booking north course.

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It sounds like he's already been practicing a month if not more, and the trip is still, what, two weeks away?

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@iacas Yea it's been nearly 4 weeks now, and the trip is on 4/6. He's between jobs and last last day was 3/1, so technically it will be a month and 4 day project for him.

This is our group's new Dan Plan to follow, as he created a fb account and posts updates just on his progress.  It's pretty fun to track. I rly screwed up the thing w/ the South course being in full maintenance mode, now have to find out everyone's flights and such to see what our other options are.  May play Aviara (lpga kia classic course) or Maderas instead. This is off topic too, but if anyone has any opinions on them, feel free to share.

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7 minutes ago, bones75 said:

@iacas Yea it's been nearly 4 weeks now, and the trip is on 4/6. He's between jobs and last last day was 3/1, so technically it will be a month and 4 day project for him.

This is our group's new Dan Plan to follow, as he created a fb account and posts updates just on his progress.  It's pretty fun to track. I rly screwed up the thing w/ the South course being in full maintenance mode, now have to find out everyone's flights and such to see what our other options are.  May play Aviara (lpga kia classic course) or Maderas instead. This is off topic too, but if anyone has any opinions on them, feel free to share.

Where else are you playing besides TP (or whatever you audible to).
For an audible, have you considered going out to Palm Springs? Tons of great courses out there?
I've never played any of them, but I would assume that the Indian Casino/Resort courses in NE San Diego would be pretty good. I wasn't playing much golf when I lived in SD.

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4 hours ago, bones75 said:

Update. Not sure yet if he'll win the bet, but progress can happen quickly if you're dedicated and getting back to a once good form. Trip is weekend after next.

Progress: Since 3/1 when he left his last job, he's been played 2-3 times per week, taking lessons every week, on a workout schedule with his TPI guy, and been at the range on many of the other days. On his home course he is averaging ~83 the last 1.5 weeks (four rounds played at ~6800yds rated 72.3). One of the guys from the trip has played with him a few times and personally watched him go from shooting high 90s to low 80's over the last year (granted he only played a few times previous to getting back on the golf horse). His old index of 8-10 was comprised mostly of tournament scores, so if anything we think it would error on the high side.

Not sure what this will translate for the trip as he's never played any of the courses, and with Torrey Pines South the last day which we'll play from blues (Taupe) at about 7000 yds.  He's got almost $400 on the line now for the over/under on him, not to mention the other bets. I've got $60 on him personally.  Super fun!

Sounds like he was hustling you guys the whole time 😉

Good for him, though. I took the under but since my money's not involved, I'd be happy (for him) to be wrong.

Bill

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2 hours ago, billchao said:

Sounds like he was hustling you guys the whole time 😉

Good for him, though. I took the under but since my money's not involved, I'd be happy (for him) to be wrong.

I still think it remains to be seen if he does it come game days, but it's a super fun bet for the group.  It's possible he was sandbagging, but I don't think so personally.  He also stopped playing in recent years because of other life factors that we all tracked. At the least, this was is an annual trip going on 7 years straight now, so I've witnessed his high 90's scores the last few years myself.

Based on the info I gave, I think most people thinking he couldn't improve 10 strokes in a month was fair judgment, but for the folks on the trip that know the details (half of us are all good friends), it was actual a fair split on the bet (half of us believed he could improve, including me!). Two of his closest friends were the main ones betting big $ against him, but I think they did it half for encouragement, and he gladly took the action for motivation. He also lost a ton of $ the last few years on this annual trip, cuz no one wanted to give him strokes even though the 20 rounds used for his index stretched back over 4 years. So if he wins, we can't really cry foul.

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  • 2 weeks later...

He succeeded 89-81-86. Although his average was 85.3 (close to the goal of 86), he played safe near the end, as he layed up ("laid up"?) on a few par 4's on the final stretch to ensure he stayed in the money. We played Aviara from the blues on last day (tips rated 75.0, which was too much).

We were all impressed and jealous at his progress (at least I was), esp after seeing him the last few years. Got back into old form quickly as he's in bewteen jobs and focused on it pretty much 100%. Tons of practice, play and fitness stuff (16 rounds in 34 days, and he played 6 times in the week prior to the trip). 

He got rid of a slice w/ his driver that developed recently, which used to cost him several ob's per round. 

To recap, he was an 8.5 in fall 2013, stopped playing regularly, and last few years only played 1-2x a year outside of this annual trip.

Generously, he used a lot of his earnings for a Macallan 18 which we will cork next year!  

And despite my own personal recent gains, and the fact that I won my bet on him, i was the second biggest loser of the weekend. Played terribly, and I totally choked on two 3 footers, both big money putts. Very disappointed in my mental strength.

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