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$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge


iacas
Note: This thread is 1698 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

$5M vs. 5 Years in Jail Bet  

79 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you take the bet proposed in the first post?

    • Yes
      22
    • No
      57


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12 hours ago, David in FL said:

It seems to me, that the more balls on the green, between you and the hole, the less chance of making an ace...

 

2 hours ago, boogielicious said:

What if they were arranged in a chevron and acting like a funnel to the hole!!!:-P

Brownian motion. With so many balls piled up around the hole one should fall in as long as they don’t stick together.

Spray Teflon on them too for good measure 😂

Of course, my goal is just to get a ball into the hole after making a shot. 🤪

:ping:  :tmade:  :callaway:   :gamegolf:  :titleist:

TM White Smoke Big Fontana; Pro-V1
TM Rac 60 TT WS, MD2 56
Ping i20 irons U-4, CFS300
Callaway XR16 9 degree Fujikura Speeder 565 S
Callaway XR16 3W 15 degree Fujikura Speeder 565 S, X2Hot Pro 20 degrees S

"I'm hitting the woods just great, but I'm having a terrible time getting out of them." ~Harry Toscano

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Oh hell.   After the week I've had.....I'd do it! 

 

Wait...Can I get a golf simulator in prison?   White collar prison, library, computers, nice single rooms, single showers, 3 square meals.  

What's not to like?   

Edited by dennyjones
spelling

From the land of perpetual cloudiness.   I'm Denny

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I figure the odds are pretty good of getting a hole in one with 250 shots a day for 30 consecutive days.  Of course, I definitely wouldn't like to wind up in prison, but I have come close to a couple of hole-in-one's with my 7 iron at a distance of around 155 yards or so.

What's in the bag

  • Taylor Made r5 dual Draw 9.5* (stiff)
  • Cobra Baffler 4H (stiff)
  • Taylor Made RAC OS 6-9,P,S (regular)
  • Golden Bear LD5.0 60* (regular)
  • Aidia Z-009 Putter
  • Inesis Soft 500 golf ball
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22 hours ago, Buckeyebowman said:

I voted no, and my reasoning is quite pragmatic. Considering that I have played this game for over 50 years, and for a time at a pretty high level, and have never had a hole in one makes my decision easy.

Assuming 4 par 3s per average round and say 50 rounds a year (i.e. one 18 holes round per week), that's only 50*50*4=10,000 chances, spaced way out in time and space, on holes more likely longer on average than 135yds, without the benefit of grooving a repeated swing.

The premise of this discussion should give you a better chance to succeed, but I won't fault you for not taking the bet. I said I wouldn't either! :beer:

  • Upvote 1

Philippe

:callaway: Maverick Driver, 3W, 5W Big Bertha 
:mizuno: JPX 900 Forged 4-GW
:mizuno:  T7 55-09 and 60-10 forged wedges,
:odyssey: #7 putter (Slim 3.0 grip)

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13 hours ago, dennyjones said:

Oh hell.   After the week I've had.....I'd do it! 

 

Wait...Can I get a golf simulator in prison?   White collar prison, library, computers, nice single rooms, single showers, 3 square meals.  

What's not to like?   

 

And their shivs are made from the finest sterling silver. :-P

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Scott

Titleist, Edel, Scotty Cameron Putter, Snell - AimPoint - Evolvr - MirrorVision

My Swing Thread

boogielicious - Adjective describing the perfect surf wave

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Just made my third hole in one, 110y wind helping, green slopes back if you hit it long. So pitchingwedge just less then a yard long and..... in tha hole!

Still not going to take the challenge though. 😉

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11 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

Just made my third hole in one, 110y wind helping, green slopes back if you hit it long. So pitchingwedge just less then a yard long and..... in tha hole!

Still not going to take the challenge though. 😉

How do you properly spell sodameetarop?!!   :-D

Congrats buddy!

  • Like 1

In David's bag....

Driver: Titleist 910 D-3;  9.5* Diamana Kai'li
3-Wood: Titleist 910F;  15* Diamana Kai'li
Hybrids: Titleist 910H 19* and 21* Diamana Kai'li
Irons: Titleist 695cb 5-Pw

Wedges: Scratch 51-11 TNC grind, Vokey SM-5's;  56-14 F grind and 60-11 K grind
Putter: Scotty Cameron Kombi S
Ball: ProV1

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The more I think about it, the more I feel i'd take this bet, and its not even close.   

 

It takes about 10 balls to really get dialed in on a club.   4 times per day (250 broken up to avoid fatigue), you groove 60 straight swings at the same target.  

I would be very surprised if I didn't get it within a week.

to elaborate further, I would guess that out of every 50 balls, about 5 of them are making a decent run at the cup.   by decent, I mean within 3 feet of either side and a speed that has a chance of going in.   I think that is fair.  and if that is fair, it means you are making a decent run at that cup 25 times per day.  

Edited by lastings

:tmade:  - SIM2 - Kuro Kage silver 60 shaft
:cobra:  - F9 3W, 15 degree - Fukijara Atmos white tour spec stiff flex shaft

:tmade: - M2 hybrid, 19 degree
:tmade: - GAPR 3 iron - 18degree
:mizuno: MP-H5 4-5 iron, MP-25 6-8 iron, MP-5 9-PW

Miura - 1957 series k-grind - 56 degree
:bettinardi: - 52 degree
:titleist: - Scotty Cameron Newport 2 - Putter

check out my swing here

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Also, if you hit your 8-iron 250 times per day for 30 straight days, can you imagine how good you'd at hitting an 8-iron?  

:tmade:  - SIM2 - Kuro Kage silver 60 shaft
:cobra:  - F9 3W, 15 degree - Fukijara Atmos white tour spec stiff flex shaft

:tmade: - M2 hybrid, 19 degree
:tmade: - GAPR 3 iron - 18degree
:mizuno: MP-H5 4-5 iron, MP-25 6-8 iron, MP-5 9-PW

Miura - 1957 series k-grind - 56 degree
:bettinardi: - 52 degree
:titleist: - Scotty Cameron Newport 2 - Putter

check out my swing here

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3 hours ago, lastings said:

Also, if you hit your 8-iron 250 times per day for 30 straight days, can you imagine how good you'd at hitting an 8-iron?  

You know @iacas never made a hole in one  ever? So lets say he is a scratch golfer, and he never ever made a hole in one. Its not about beeing good at golf. There is luck involved. What do you think would happen if you missed the first 1,000? There would be stress, cause you could go to jail for 5 years. It would ruin your life.

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I would take the bet. If I make it, my wife is happy because we won 5 million dollars. If I don't make it, my wife is probably happy because of how much money we'd save with me in jail and not spending money on golf. Seems like a win-win... For her at least. 

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There is luck involved because when you are golfing it's tough to get more than a handful to roll within 3 feet of the cup a year.     not a great chance that one in a handful goes in.    However, in this scenario, I can get a handful to roll within 3 feet of the cup per day.   it would be very unlucky if one doesn't fall, not lucky if one does.  

:tmade:  - SIM2 - Kuro Kage silver 60 shaft
:cobra:  - F9 3W, 15 degree - Fukijara Atmos white tour spec stiff flex shaft

:tmade: - M2 hybrid, 19 degree
:tmade: - GAPR 3 iron - 18degree
:mizuno: MP-H5 4-5 iron, MP-25 6-8 iron, MP-5 9-PW

Miura - 1957 series k-grind - 56 degree
:bettinardi: - 52 degree
:titleist: - Scotty Cameron Newport 2 - Putter

check out my swing here

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  • Administrator
2 hours ago, MacDutch said:

You know @iacas never made a hole in one  ever? So lets say he is a scratch golfer, and he never ever made a hole in one. Its not about beeing good at golf. There is luck involved. What do you think would happen if you missed the first 1,000? There would be stress, cause you could go to jail for 5 years. It would ruin your life.

I haven't played 7500 par threes under 165 yards (let alone hitting 7500 shots in a row to the same hole). That'd take me about 3,000 rounds of golf (the par threes at Whispering Woods are all over 165 yards, in fact, from the black tees).

1000 shots is only four days into the challenge.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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2 hours ago, iacas said:

I haven't played 7500 par threes under 165 yards (let alone hitting 7500 shots in a row to the same hole). That'd take me about 3,000 rounds of golf (the par threes at Whispering Woods are all over 165 yards, in fact, from the black tees).

1000 shots is only four days into the challenge.

And you also didn't get to immediately make an adjustment and shoot again.  Shot went a little far?  I'll take something off the next.  Went a little too far right?  I'll re-align a bit to the left... etc.

White collar prison?  I am thinking I go for it.

 

In my Bag:

Driver - SLDR 430 - 10.5 deg
3 Wood - SLDR HL
Irons - TM Tour CB's                                                                                                                                                                 Wedges - TM                                                                                                                                                                               Putter - Odyssey White Ice 2 Ball

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  • 1 month later...
  • Administrator

This is the third, right? So under 1500 balls, and at a longer yardage, and they did it.

  • Like 1

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

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Every business deal I've done involves the question, "Can I live with the downside"? The upside is easy. Most people imagine how $5m would change their lives. Wise people don't risk what's precious to them. Sorry iacas.

In the 7+ years I've been playing, I've had two. One at 158 yards [8 iron ironically] and one at 176 [maybe the best 7 I've ever hit]. Been close, real close quite a few times. Even with 7500 shots, it's the downside I can't live with. Wife [good one] of 32 years that doesn't care if I play golf, 2 great married kids, 2 grandkids, and a business that allows me get out and play golf. It's a no for me.

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2 hours ago, LMoore said:

Every business deal I've done involves the question, "Can I live with the downside"? The upside is easy. Most people imagine how $5m would change their lives. Wise people don't risk what's precious to them. Sorry iacas.

You leave your house, right? Why? Because you feel driving to work or to play golf is worth the risk of getting into your car. The risk is small enough that the downside - dying or being disfigured in a car accident - is easily outweighed by the upside. Even if the upside is as simple as going to get an ice cream cone.

2 hours ago, LMoore said:

In the 7+ years I've been playing, I've had two. One at 158 yards [8 iron ironically] and one at 176 [maybe the best 7 I've ever hit].

That's not the same situation.

Erik J. Barzeski —  I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • AuthorLowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

Check Out: New Topics | TST Blog | Golf Terms | Instructional Content | Analyzr | LSW | Instructional Droplets

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