$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

[iacas]

57 minutes ago, LMoore said:

It was intended to mean, I’m sorry if you don’t have anything precious in your life that’s worth more than the prospect of incarceration.

Oh brother. The odds are favorable and my wife and I could retire on $5M.

It’s a fun question, not a chance to be judgy.

[Chasing_Bogeys]

On 4/25/2019 at 7:21 AM, iacas said:

This is the third, right? So under 1500 balls, and at a longer yardage, and they did it.

I watched this this morning. I think he did it on shot 260-ish, right? That info made me want to vote no. Because at 250 you're done for the day, new pin placement the next day. Slightly different yardage.

I could be wrong here, but I "think" I'd be more likely to say yes if you gave me 500 shots per day for 15 days.

[iacas]

32 minutes ago, Chasing_Bogeys said:

I watched this this morning. I think he did it on shot 260-ish, right? That info made me want to vote no. Because at 250 you're done for the day, new pin placement the next day. Slightly different yardage.

I could be wrong here, but I "think" I'd be more likely to say yes if you gave me 500 shots per day for 15 days.

Yeah… it’s 250 a day for 30 days.

I think 250/30 is better than 500/15. You’d get tired after that many balls. 🙂

[Vinsk]

46 minutes ago, iacas said:

Yeah… it’s 250 a day for 30 days.

I think 250/30 is better than 500/15. You’d get tired after that many balls. 🙂

I wouldn’t. 

[iacas]

35 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I wouldn’t. 

I probably wouldn't either, but still… 500 hitting one ball every 45 seconds is… 6.25 hours.

250 is just over three hours.

[Lihu]

15 hours ago, Chasing_Bogeys said:

I watched this this morning. I think he did it on shot 260-ish, right? That info made me want to vote no. Because at 250 you're done for the day, new pin placement the next day. Slightly different yardage.

I could be wrong here, but I "think" I'd be more likely to say yes if you gave me 500 shots per day for 15 days.

The misses we saw were all within a foot. I’d guess that his typical miss is still less than a yard. If I was that good, I’d take the bet, but my dispersion at 171 yards is huge 🤪

[mellison24]

If I’ve done it right, the odds (with 7500 shots) amount to 99.987%.

I’ll try it!

[MacDutch]

39 minutes ago, mellison24 said:

If I’ve done it right, the odds (with 7500 shots) amount to 99.987%.

I’ll try it!

You might check that percentage first?

[dennyjones]

1 hour ago, mellison24 said:

If I’ve done it right, the odds (with 7500 shots) amount to 99.987%.

I’ll try it!

Where did you come up with that?   

[mellison24]

2 hours ago, dennyjones said:

Where did you come up with that?   

Using the same formula earlier in the thread but based on the full 7500 shots rather than just 4000.

I’m not quite sure I did the ^ but right on an iPhone calculator though.

Edited April 27, 2019 by mellison24

[Pretzel]

4 hours ago, Lihu said:

The misses we saw were all within a foot. I’d guess that his typical miss is still less than a yard. If I was that good, I’d take the bet, but my dispersion at 171 yards is huge 🤪

His typical miss at 171 is not less than a yard. From the fairway 150-175 yards out even the best pros miss the green entirely more than 20% of the time.

4 hours ago, mellison24 said:

If I’ve done it right, the odds (with 7500 shots) amount to 99.987%.

I’ll try it!

I would encourage you to look at the actual math behind this scenario that I posted back on page 3. The odds of success are not 99.987% unless you have insanely high odds of holing each individual shot.

Here's the post with the initial math: 

Here's the post with a more in-depth explanation of why my math is correct:

 

The only thing open for debate is the odds of success for each individual shot.

To have a probability of success of 0.99987, your probability of overall failure would be 0.00013. 

Let's represent your probability of failure on each individual shot as "p". We thus know the following:

a = b^c    --->   b = a^(1/c)

p^7500 = 0.00013     --->     p = 0.00013^(1/7500)

p = 0.998808

This means you're giving yourself a probability of success for each individual shot of 0.0012 or 0.12%. Odds of an event with probability "P" are equal to "1 in [1/p]".

You just gave yourself a 1 in 833.33 chance of making a hole in one. PGA Tour professionals have a 1 in 2,500 change of making a hole in one. You are claiming that you will be literally exactly 3x better at making a hole in one during this challenge than a PGA Tour pro.

[mellison24]

1 minute ago, Pretzel said:

His typical miss at 171 is not less than a yard. From the fairway 150-175 yards out even the best pros miss the green entirely more than 20% of the time.

I would encourage you to look at the actual math behind this scenario that I posted back on page 3. The odds of success are not 99.987% unless you have insanely high odds of holing each individual shot.

Here's the post with the initial math: 

Here's the post with a more in-depth explanation of why my math is correct:

 

The only thing open for debate is the odds of success for each individual shot.

To have a probability of success of 0.99987, your probability of overall failure would be 0.00013. 

Let's represent your probability of failure on each individual shot as "p". We thus know the following:

a = b^c    --->   b = a^(1/c)

p^7500 = 0.00013     --->     p = 0.00013^(1/7500)

p = 0.998808

This means you're giving yourself a probability of success for each individual shot of 0.0012 or 0.12%. Odds of an event with probability "P" are equal to "1 in [1/p]".

You just gave yourself a 1 in 833.33 chance of making a hole in one. PGA Tour professionals have a 1 in 2,500 change of making a hole in one. You are claiming that you will be literally exactly 3x better at making a hole in one during this challenge than a PGA Tour pro.

Definitely not don’t it right then 😂

Would you mind calculating odds to account for 7500 shots from the average golfer? I obviously couldn’t 😂

[Pretzel]

4 minutes ago, mellison24 said:

Definitely not don’t it right then 😂

Would you mind calculating odds to account for 7500 shots from the average golfer? I obviously couldn’t 😂

The average golfer has a 1 in 12,500 chance of making a hole in one while playing golf. Since they'll get a lot of practice at the same shot, however, I'll calculate the success probability based on 1 in 10,000 odds. This means that the probability of failure for each shot is 0.9999 (probability of success is 0.0001)

P = 1 - 0.9999^7500

P = 1 - 0.472349

P = 0.527651

The average amateur would have about a 52.7651% chance of success.

[mellison24]

21 minutes ago, Pretzel said:

The average golfer has a 1 in 12,500 chance of making a hole in one while playing golf. Since they'll get a lot of practice at the same shot, however, I'll calculate the success probability based on 1 in 10,000 odds. This means that the probability of failure for each shot is 0.9999 (probability of success is 0.0001)

P = 1 - 0.9999^7500

P = 1 - 0.472349

P = 0.527651

The average amateur would have about a 52.7651% chance of success.

Ahhh, I stopped after calculating the probability of one shot failing 😂

Tbf, a 1 in 2 chance is great! I’ll have a go. Middle class prison will be fine.

[Hardspoon]

I wouldn’t take the bet. I think my odds would be far less than 50% given my handicap.

I think I’d need probably north of 75% odds to take it, too, since the cost is just too great compared to the reward.

Can you imagine how nervous you’d be after about the first 15 days (not to mention the last day)?

[iacas]

1 hour ago, Hardspoon said:

Can you imagine how nervous you’d be after about the first 15 days (not to mention the last day)?

Nah. My last day would be the third or fourth day.

😄

[DocWu1948]

No.

I already have a hole in one and someday, I'll also have 5 million bucks.

[Lihu]

17 hours ago, Pretzel said:

His typical miss at 171 is not less than a yard. From the fairway 150-175 yards out even the best pros miss the green entirely more than 20% of the time.

Oh, I just assumed his stats were better at this distance on this hole than the average tour player, which is why he attempted it. His swing was pretty sweet looking with that iron... 😊