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$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

$5M vs. 5 Years in Jail Bet  

79 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you take the bet proposed in the first post?

    • Yes
      22
    • No
      57


159 posts / 12230 viewsLast Reply

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12 hours ago, David in FL said:

It seems to me, that the more balls on the green, between you and the hole, the less chance of making an ace...

 

2 hours ago, boogielicious said:

What if they were arranged in a chevron and acting like a funnel to the hole!!!:-P

Brownian motion. With so many balls piled up around the hole one should fall in as long as they don’t stick together.

Spray Teflon on them too for good measure 😂

Of course, my goal is just to get a ball into the hole after making a shot. 🤪

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Register for free today and you won't see this ad spot again!

Oh hell.   After the week I've had.....I'd do it! 

 

Wait...Can I get a golf simulator in prison?   White collar prison, library, computers, nice single rooms, single showers, 3 square meals.  

What's not to like?   

Edited by dennyjones
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I figure the odds are pretty good of getting a hole in one with 250 shots a day for 30 consecutive days.  Of course, I definitely wouldn't like to wind up in prison, but I have come close to a couple of hole-in-one's with my 7 iron at a distance of around 155 yards or so.

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22 hours ago, Buckeyebowman said:

I voted no, and my reasoning is quite pragmatic. Considering that I have played this game for over 50 years, and for a time at a pretty high level, and have never had a hole in one makes my decision easy.

Assuming 4 par 3s per average round and say 50 rounds a year (i.e. one 18 holes round per week), that's only 50*50*4=10,000 chances, spaced way out in time and space, on holes more likely longer on average than 135yds, without the benefit of grooving a repeated swing.

The premise of this discussion should give you a better chance to succeed, but I won't fault you for not taking the bet. I said I wouldn't either! :beer:

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13 hours ago, dennyjones said:

Oh hell.   After the week I've had.....I'd do it! 

 

Wait...Can I get a golf simulator in prison?   White collar prison, library, computers, nice single rooms, single showers, 3 square meals.  

What's not to like?   

 

And their shivs are made from the finest sterling silver. :-P

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Just made my third hole in one, 110y wind helping, green slopes back if you hit it long. So pitchingwedge just less then a yard long and..... in tha hole!

Still not going to take the challenge though. 😉

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11 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

Just made my third hole in one, 110y wind helping, green slopes back if you hit it long. So pitchingwedge just less then a yard long and..... in tha hole!

Still not going to take the challenge though. 😉

How do you properly spell sodameetarop?!!   :-D

Congrats buddy!

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The more I think about it, the more I feel i'd take this bet, and its not even close.   

 

It takes about 10 balls to really get dialed in on a club.   4 times per day (250 broken up to avoid fatigue), you groove 60 straight swings at the same target.  

I would be very surprised if I didn't get it within a week.

to elaborate further, I would guess that out of every 50 balls, about 5 of them are making a decent run at the cup.   by decent, I mean within 3 feet of either side and a speed that has a chance of going in.   I think that is fair.  and if that is fair, it means you are making a decent run at that cup 25 times per day.  

Edited by lastings

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Also, if you hit your 8-iron 250 times per day for 30 straight days, can you imagine how good you'd at hitting an 8-iron?  

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3 hours ago, lastings said:

Also, if you hit your 8-iron 250 times per day for 30 straight days, can you imagine how good you'd at hitting an 8-iron?  

You know @iacas never made a hole in one  ever? So lets say he is a scratch golfer, and he never ever made a hole in one. Its not about beeing good at golf. There is luck involved. What do you think would happen if you missed the first 1,000? There would be stress, cause you could go to jail for 5 years. It would ruin your life.

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I would take the bet. If I make it, my wife is happy because we won 5 million dollars. If I don't make it, my wife is probably happy because of how much money we'd save with me in jail and not spending money on golf. Seems like a win-win... For her at least. 

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There is luck involved because when you are golfing it's tough to get more than a handful to roll within 3 feet of the cup a year.     not a great chance that one in a handful goes in.    However, in this scenario, I can get a handful to roll within 3 feet of the cup per day.   it would be very unlucky if one doesn't fall, not lucky if one does.  

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2 hours ago, MacDutch said:

You know @iacas never made a hole in one  ever? So lets say he is a scratch golfer, and he never ever made a hole in one. Its not about beeing good at golf. There is luck involved. What do you think would happen if you missed the first 1,000? There would be stress, cause you could go to jail for 5 years. It would ruin your life.

I haven't played 7500 par threes under 165 yards (let alone hitting 7500 shots in a row to the same hole). That'd take me about 3,000 rounds of golf (the par threes at Whispering Woods are all over 165 yards, in fact, from the black tees).

1000 shots is only four days into the challenge.

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2 hours ago, iacas said:

I haven't played 7500 par threes under 165 yards (let alone hitting 7500 shots in a row to the same hole). That'd take me about 3,000 rounds of golf (the par threes at Whispering Woods are all over 165 yards, in fact, from the black tees).

1000 shots is only four days into the challenge.

And you also didn't get to immediately make an adjustment and shoot again.  Shot went a little far?  I'll take something off the next.  Went a little too far right?  I'll re-align a bit to the left... etc.

White collar prison?  I am thinking I go for it.

 

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Every business deal I've done involves the question, "Can I live with the downside"? The upside is easy. Most people imagine how $5m would change their lives. Wise people don't risk what's precious to them. Sorry iacas.

In the 7+ years I've been playing, I've had two. One at 158 yards [8 iron ironically] and one at 176 [maybe the best 7 I've ever hit]. Been close, real close quite a few times. Even with 7500 shots, it's the downside I can't live with. Wife [good one] of 32 years that doesn't care if I play golf, 2 great married kids, 2 grandkids, and a business that allows me get out and play golf. It's a no for me.

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2 hours ago, LMoore said:

Every business deal I've done involves the question, "Can I live with the downside"? The upside is easy. Most people imagine how $5m would change their lives. Wise people don't risk what's precious to them. Sorry iacas.

You leave your house, right? Why? Because you feel driving to work or to play golf is worth the risk of getting into your car. The risk is small enough that the downside - dying or being disfigured in a car accident - is easily outweighed by the upside. Even if the upside is as simple as going to get an ice cream cone.

2 hours ago, LMoore said:

In the 7+ years I've been playing, I've had two. One at 158 yards [8 iron ironically] and one at 176 [maybe the best 7 I've ever hit].

That's not the same situation.

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