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$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge


$5M vs. 5 Years in Jail Bet  

79 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you take the bet proposed in the first post?

    • Yes
      22
    • No
      57


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13 hours ago, Lihu said:

Oh, I just assumed his stats were better at this distance on this hole than the average tour player, which is why he attempted it. His swing was pretty sweet looking with that iron... 😊

 

Even if he was better than average, the most accurate player on the PGA Tour from 150-175 yards (with a fairway lie) is Danny Willet, and his average proximity to the hole is still 22 feet 5 inches. The median tour pro has an average proximity from the same distance of 28 feet 4 inches.

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Strokes Gained | Greens in Regulation | Accuracy from Fairway | Accuracy from Rough | Scoring | Going for it | HoleOuts, Other

 

Pros are insanely good, but not quite good enough to average a yard away from that distance because golf is such a difficult game. It will be interesting to see the results if the European Tour continues to have these hole in one challenge videos.

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I'll take the bet. It would be quite a story to tell in prison. 

Yeah, I get that.  I’d be tempted, but realistically even if the odds for me were dead even,  the upside isn’t worth the downside.  5 years in prison would have a much larger negative impact on my lif

On 4/28/2019 at 11:05 PM, Pretzel said:

Even if he was better than average, the most accurate player on the PGA Tour from 150-175 yards (with a fairway lie) is Danny Willet, and his average proximity to the hole is still 22 feet 5 inches. The median tour pro has an average proximity from the same distance of 28 feet 4 inches.

pgatour_fb.jpg

Strokes Gained | Greens in Regulation | Accuracy from Fairway | Accuracy from Rough | Scoring |...

 

Pros are insanely good, but not quite good enough to average a yard away from that distance because golf is such a difficult game. It will be interesting to see the results if the European Tour continues to have these hole in one challenge videos.

Sure, but most of us are better than our fairway stats when making the same shot over and over again. I suppose he’s a bit wider than a yard of course, but I’m thinking a typical or expected shot for him is still quite a bit better than his official stat.

Isn’t Andy Sullivan on the European tour? At least that’s what it stated in the video?

Anyway, I did manage getting a ball into the 165 yard hole last month according to one of my range-rat-mates, but would still not take that bet... 🤪

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On 4/26/2019 at 4:52 PM, iacas said:

Yeah… it’s 250 a day for 30 days.

I think 250/30 is better than 500/15. You’d get tired after that many balls. 🙂

I agree that getting tired would be a factor. Additionally, adding to the argument against me, over 6 hours the weather conditions could very easily change enough that the "pin in the same place make small adjustments to get to it" would be nullified. And if you go an hour on, 30 minutes off... to get the 500 balls... fine, 250 x 30 it is.

Either way, I suck, I'm not taking the bet.

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7 hours ago, Chasing_Bogeys said:

I agree that getting tired would be a factor. Additionally, adding to the argument against me, over 6 hours the weather conditions could very easily change enough that the "pin in the same place make small adjustments to get to it" would be nullified. And if you go an hour on, 30 minutes off... to get the 500 balls... fine, 250 x 30 it is.

Either way, I suck, I'm not taking the bet.

If it’s 75 yards away, and I had your approached from that distance, I’d take it! 😂

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7 hours ago, Chasing_Bogeys said:

I agree that getting tired would be a factor. Additionally, adding to the argument against me, over 6 hours the weather conditions could very easily change enough that the "pin in the same place make small adjustments to get to it" would be nullified. And if you go an hour on, 30 minutes off... to get the 500 balls... fine, 250 x 30 it is.

Either way, I suck, I'm not taking the bet.

If it’s 75 yards away, and I had your approached from that distance, I’d take it! 😂

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I would take this all day and I haven't been within 3 feet of a hole in one. Why?. I would never have another opportunity to win 5 million realistically. Additional follow up scenario. After the 5 years does your life magically re-start where you left off; still have your job, home, wife, kids? 

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1 hour ago, Aquaguru said:

I would take this all day and I haven't been within 3 feet of a hole in one. Why?. I would never have another opportunity to win 5 million realistically. Additional follow up scenario. After the 5 years does your life magically re-start where you left off; still have your job, home, wife, kids? 

Cuz everyone who goes to prison comes back to the same job, the mortgage pays itself for 5 years, and wifey doesn’t mind dealing with the rugrats by herself because you rolled the dice, and lost...

Sure...

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43 minutes ago, David in FL said:

Cuz everyone who goes to prison comes back to the same job, the mortgage pays itself for 5 years, and wifey doesn’t mind dealing with the rugrats by herself because you rolled the dice, and lost...

Sure...

It was a hypothetical question to begin with. It may change someone’s mind

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On 5/1/2019 at 3:52 PM, Lihu said:

If it’s 75 yards away, and I had your approached from that distance, I’d take it! 😂

I hit 3 good shots that day. One of which was preceded by a 7 iron that was 75 yards off line. I think you are WAY overestimating my abilities. 🙂

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8 hours ago, Chasing_Bogeys said:

I hit 3 good shots that day. One of which was preceded by a 7 iron that was 75 yards off line. I think you are WAY overestimating my abilities. 🙂

As I said before, that one approach you made was “just like watching a video game” 😂

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  • 2 months later...

When I first saw this thread my answer was an unequivocal, emphatic NO!  After hitting a large bucket on the range with my mid- and short irons today...my answer is an unequivocal, emphatic HELL NO. 😔

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My 8 iron goes between 140-150 yards.  Alex Noren is currently the 200th ranked PGA tour member in average distance to the pin from 125-150 yards at 27' 9".  I'm certainly not that good, but it gives me an idea for where I'm at and with several thousand swings a measure to the ceiling of capability.

On top of that, the arguments about how people haven't gotten a hole in one in their careers (I haven't) doesn't necessarily pertain to the argument as some hole in ones are from shorter distance, or some people don't play par 3s at that distance regularly (I don't).  I feel like an 8 iron is sufficiently short enough to not have too big of a dispersion so as to give anybody with a good swing a reasonable shot at a hole in one.

The video with Andy Sullivan was under much tougher conditions than this scenario, so I would expect an average pro to complete this within a day or two of starting.  Giving myself 30 days seems like a reasonable time frame to make one in the hole.  

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