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criley4way last won the day on February 5 2020

criley4way had the most liked content!

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About criley4way

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  • Birthday December 19

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    Ann Arbor, MI

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  1. Comparing the COVID vaccine to the Flu vaccine is not correct. We get yearly flu vaccines because we are predicting the specific stains that will be likely. People can be infected because they get a non-covered strain or due to incomplete protection. For SARS COV-2 there is 1 strain (now with several variants). It is much more like a Measles vaccine than a flu vaccine. If we need boosters remains to be seen due to incomplete data about the length of protection.
  2. Were this a new vector for the vaccine I would be concerned but this technology is not new. Granted there has not been a successful vaccine until COVID but clinical trials have been done using the technique since the early 2010s. And compared to the current impact of virus it seems like reasonable choice. One must also remember that part of the reason that this trial was completed so quickly was the speed at which they were able to enroll participants and the speed with which statistically significant numbers of people in the control group were diagnosed with the virus. This is not normal
  3. Thank you. I don't always agree with you but I certainly respect you, your opinion and integrity.
  4. For Sturgis postulating that the transmission was due to bars (which I believe were outside) and hotels and not the rally outside is only possible that the transmission did not occur due to the inside portion of the event. And while I agree that each of the outdoor rallies in isolation is a weak correlation to the increase in infections during the following weeks, with multiple events in unique areas it strongly supports the notion that the rallies were a probable cause.
  5. Problem with this statement is you are asking to prove a negative which is extremely difficult if not impossible in most cases. Does the Stanford data meet the ask https://sebotero.github.io/papers/COVIDrallies_10_30_2000.pdf
  6. The benefit of being outdoors does not negate the impact of not wearing masks and not socially distancing in crowds. It is an odds game. Un masked in a small room for 60 min. Probability that either person is positive and infectious x the probability of transmission. Masked reduces that probability by 95%. Reducing the time reduces it. Being in a large space reduces it. Being outdoors reduces it. But if there are 50 people you come into contact with it goes up. Nothing is a guarantee to get it (if I recall transmission between 2 people unmasked in the same home is 50%).
  7. Yes Sturgis, The Ozarks 4th of July event, some Labor day events in Michigan (can't recall the lake in the southwest), political rallies.
  8. The viral inoculation load is a key gap in our knowledge base for testing and policy. I struggle with test interpretation not knowing at what level a test should be positive since the question is not if the virus is present but rather: A. if the illness is caused by COVID-19 and if the person is infectious. Something I think about daily.
  9. Touching your mask will have minimal effect. the Virus is rarely transferred by surface contact. Cleaning and washing hands help but is not the major mitigation, masks and social distance are. Wearing masks is the first thing, next is wearing an effective mask (neck gators don't work well, nor do bandanas or single layer cloth masks) The virus as a particle is extremely small (0.1 micron) but that is not the concern. The concern is droplets which are 1-10 microns. Most of the droplets are captured by masks. Face shields protect the wearer to some degree but have minimal benefit for e
  10. This wave started in August but the increase is exponential and started to ramp slowly. It got a boost from Labor day parties, universities opening and parties, then another boost at Halloween. If you look at the Illinois contact tracing data, the major source of spreading is indoor dining, bars and small gatherings such as birthdays, bachelor parties, and baby showers. People are hardly "mostly wearing masks" I haven't been in one public space where I didn't have to remind someone. 80% is not enough be a long shot There are loop extenders that hook on both loo
  11. Flipping the club up activates the tag. I believe it uses light and orientation do so. game golf or shot scope seem more certain way to register but requires effort. The pitch for Arccos is that it is “automatic”
  12. The mic is used to register the shot. That causes the gps to record the location.
  13. They are starting an arm of the study to see if it can last 5 days. I hope it works. my point still stands the logistics on a large scale is a major logistics issue if the vaccine is not stable at -20 or 4C. Not impossible but a significant challenge.
  14. The data is really exciting. It show there is an end in sight. Unfortunately the storage challenge is not addressed. Few medical offices, no pharmacies and only some hospitals have -80c storage. The amount of storage needed is significant. This is a realistic solution for high risk and individuals in a relatively short timeline. Nothing FedEx has is able to help with that storage. Vaccine will need to be shipped on dry ice (not a big deal). Where is the data that says the immunity is only 7 days? At 7 days one would be looking for antibodies not calculating immunity. Effectivenes
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