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Ty_Webb last won the day on December 24 2017

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About Ty_Webb

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  1. Ty_Webb

    Strength and Depth of Field in Jack's Day and Tiger's Day

    The way I think of this is to reduce it to an extreme. Take player A. He is the “perfect” golfer. He hits every fairway and every green. He holes every putt he looks at. His scoring average is in the low 50s depending on how many eagles he makes. Everyone else is as they currently are. He wins every tournament. By miles. Then suppose someone invents equipment that enables you to hit every fairway and every green and hole every putt. That equipment has an enormous impact on the field. They can now shoot low 50s on average. How much does player A benefit from this? He improves not at all. He has lost out enormously because his opposition can now match him. The closer you are to player A as equipment improves the less you benefit as a result. Therefore the improvements in equipment make it harder to distance yourself from the field. So ignore you do distance yourself from the field in an era of improved equipment then that is a more impressive achievement.
  2. Ty_Webb

    Anyone Going to the U.S. Open at Shinnecock?

    From what I hear it won’t be get on the train and relax. It will be get on a train with 8 million people and stand the whole way.
  3. Ty_Webb

    Strength and Depth of Field in Jack's Day and Tiger's Day

    Not like that last example I gave. That’s literally less likely than that tiger woods shoots less than 40 next Thursday and then fails to make the cut. Low probability events happen a whole lot, but not specific pre-determined ones. Example. Shuffle a deck of cards properly. Then look at them. It is a virtual certainty that no deck of cards has ever been in that order before. It’s not impossible that another deck has been the same order but the odds are similar to winning the powerball jackpot every draw for about a month. Both of those things are more likely than that the 100th best from the 100 group is better than the 100th best from the 900 group.
  4. Ty_Webb

    Strength and Depth of Field in Jack's Day and Tiger's Day

    If you have two clubs. One (A) has 900 players and one (B) has 100 players. Put all 1,000 of them together and have them play for a few years. The chances that the best player comes from club A is 90% and from club B is 10%. The chances that the 10th best player from B is better than the 10th best player from A is very very small indeed. The chances that the 100th best player from B is better than the 100th best player from A is smaller than the chances of pretty much anything that has ever actually happened. I think this is smaller than 200 C 100 / 1000 C 100 (this is the probability that all of B falls in the top 200, which is a requirement . That's close enough to zero to be impossible. It's more likely that I'll win the US Open next week and I'm not even playing.
  5. Ty_Webb

    2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills

    Tee times are out. I thought I might try watch a bit of Justin Thomas or DJ. They are playing together. With Tiger. I guess I'm not going to see much of them. But I may try.
  6. Ty_Webb

    Anyone Going to the U.S. Open at Shinnecock?

    On the road by 5 is my plan and in theory absent traffic I'm only 45 minutes away from the parking. I wish I knew when the shuttles are going to start. The gates open at 6am
  7. Ty_Webb

    Anyone Going to the U.S. Open at Shinnecock?

    I'm thinking of going on Friday. There is a will call by the gates. I haven't decided how to get there yet. Either drive or the train. Problem is the train leaves late in both directions. I want to go v early and watch the morning wave and then go play. Doesn't work with the train. But driving...ugh!
  8. Ty_Webb

    Tiger Woods Master Catch-All Discussion

    He did lose some shots off the tee, but he hit it OOB twice during the week. Those two shots comprise -4 to his strokes gained off the tee. Apart from those two shots he was pretty good off the tee (based on his shots gained), although he also hit that weird pull hook in round 3 on 15. Brandel Chamblee seems to think that when he's on a hole that has no hazards, he drives it fine, but as soon as there is OB around or water, he gets quicker in transition and hits it all over the place. I thought that was an interesting comment. I wonder why that happens. Thoughts? I do think he'll figure the putting thing out. Steve Stricker made the US Open, so hopefully Tiger will bump into him on the putting green and Stricker will give him a tip. I don't know Shinnecock particularly well, but I don't think there's a whole heap of OB or water there, so hopefully he'll keep it together. Had he putted like an average PGA Tour player last week and didn't hit the two drives OB, he would have won by 6 shots. I like his chances at Shinnecock, except for that his play in majors since 2009 has been very lackluster. Personally I think it's in his head. Hope he gets past it. One thing I am fairly confident of is that he won't finish his career with 15 majors. If he wins another one, I think he'll win a few more too. Only way I see him winning 15 total is if he doesn't win any for a few years and then at 48 he catches lightning in a bottle and takes one more, then retires because his back is done.
  9. Southampton is not sectional. That's the preliminary one. Standard there will be decent, but there won't be any PGA Tour players there. I'd wait and go to the sectional qualifier at Canoe Brook (I think it is). That has 50 odd PGA Tour players playing at it. Standard there will be the highest that you'll see outside of going to Shinnecock. Southampton is right next door to Shinny though. I thought about playing there, but decided that my game isn't quite up to speed and I didn't want to find it very windy and get that letter from the USGA. Gonna stick with the US mid-am this year and toying with the US Am.
  10. Ty_Webb

    A Tough Putt

    My club back in the UK used to have a "Crazy Pins" competition once a year. They would put the holes on the middle of steep slopes and right on the edges of the greens and all sorts of shenanigans. Scoring was interesting to say the least. There's a good reason that there are guidelines for pin placements. There was one time I was playing at a course called Hunstanton in the UK. Greens were blindingly fast (putting green was stimping at 15, not sure about the course itself). It was kind of laughable. And windy. The 6th hole, the green is basically a shaved off hump about 10 feet or so higher than the surrounding ground and it was sloping downhill in the same direction as the wind was blowing. We and our opponents were both just on the front fringe and we were away, with about a 40 foot putt. We rolled it up about 6 feet short and the ball fell into a little indentation and stopped. Our opponents hit their putt 6 times and watched it come back to their feet every time. Then they conceded. Had it played out, they'd have had to hole a 40 footer and we'd have then had to hole from 6 feet to win. I think if we missed we'd have been declaring it unplayable and replaying the previous shot, so we'd have been trying to hole a 6 foot putt in half the number of goes that they took. Ridiculous.
  11. Ty_Webb

    A Tough Putt

    Interesting point. I was chatting to a friend of mine who has played (and won) on the European Tour. He's had some injury issues and is currently bouncing between the European Tour and the Challenge Tour. I said that GIR was pretty close to the best indicator of who the best player is (this was before strokes gained really became a thing). He said (and I think he was being somewhat ornery about it) that it is, but it misses the fact that you're not always trying to hit the green. From his point of view there were times when he would rather be chipping from 15 feet away in a good spot than putting from a bad spot. His short game is of a level where a 15 foot chip he's expecting to make probably as often as he holes putts from that range, so that may have something of an impact on it. Mine is not. I thought it was an interesting way of looking at it. Thinking outside the box indeed.
  12. Ty_Webb

    How can I go up from 105 mph?

    I have seen statistics that suggest that typically (i.e. on average) longer people also hit it straighter. It's true that there are some people who hit it miles and it goes all over the place, but generally speaking, I think that if you have your swing in a good enough place to be able to hit it hard, then likely you have it in sequence and are hitting it fairly square and it goes fairly straight. Also it's much easier to learn straight than it is to learn long. With kids it's best to get them hitting it as hard as they can and then work on straightening things up later on. Lastly I am somewhere in the 105 to 110 range. I don't get the best out of it because I get a little steep and flip so I wind up with a fairly high dynamic loft, which drops my smash factor a little. I would dearly love to get that speed up to 115 and get a more powerful hit. I'm working on both things, with superspeed golf for the speed and lessons for the hit. If you find a good answer to the question that works for you, let me know!
  13. Yep - there are +3s around me who are having to qualify to get into local Met area amateur tournaments.

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