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nicolas wieder

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About nicolas wieder

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  1. I stand corrected. I exaggerate when I said 'shutting down'. I should have said that the responses when they didn't align with certain opinions or were considered to be challenging a previously strongly held opinion became personal. That would have been more accurate. My goal is not to be Dr Fauci. he's a once in a generation type of person. like tiger. I see a lot of confusion about data and COVID.I love golf and when i play, golfers seem particularly awkward about what to do. My hope is that if the information is out there it will be less scary and people can make their own decisions. But to challenge well known and agreed to data each and every time without providing any actual information speaks more and more to a personal attack then concern about others and disseminating info. it smacks more of a being an advocate than true inquiry. it's a disservice to people who really want an open discussion. for instance the recent comment about test data not helping if they are double and triple counting. the only source for this is political conspiracy theory; taking one bit of information and create doubt without offering anything else worthwhile. One only has to do a search or inform yourself on a website to understand how data is actually aggregated. Its never perfect as this is a moving target. But when you use inaccurate information to 'shut down' a thread of discussion that is to me 'shutting it down' though I understand how that may have been unclear. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Statistics and Research No country knows the total number of people infected with COVID-19. All we know is the infection status of those who have been tested. All those who have a lab-confirmed infection are counted as confirmed cases. are+covid+cases+counted+more+than+once - Google Search ?I am not the expert on COVID. Admittedly. If you enjoy the opinions without basis, have at it. Have fun. I am only giving you google because I assume you wouldn't be interested in the actual studies. Those include research methods and other items that I think would be quite boring. I'm not worked up. I have nothing to prove. And as for your sensitivity about the 35 hcp golfer. Yes in fact it is what it sounds like. in the scientific world opinions are usually based on a solid foundation of facts. so hearing only an opinion is like someone coming off the street and as you describe' regurgitating' CNN/MSNBC/FOX/ etc..
  2. Hmmm. The US is not Germany. That's a good one. How right you are. see charts. You just don't give up do you. Nothing data worthy to add but your gift is to simply tear down comments people make. It looks from your profile that you are a golf instructor? Imagine a 35 handicap golfer coming to you and only arguing with you about what are the most basic golf fundamentals. That's what you sound like when you discuss scientific matters. Yes you do have a little knowledge. But you're more interested in something completely different than exchanging ideas or discussing any topic openly. I noticed it in looking at some of your other posts. Always quick to shut someone down, even when there is an opening to possibly leaning in and expressing some true curiosity and inquiry. Feel free to remove me from your website.
  3. i guess. but some never find it tempting to go to conspiracy theories, though i guess some do. not sure why. maybe it takes work to look at data first instead of always going hmmm as if it's some well thought out doubt. it's true that hospital beds would be a good data point. what do you do though when states like florida refuse to release their number in certain cities. perhaps the conspiracy sometimes goes the other direction? why don't people who believe in conspiracies go both ways with them? i agree. that data is missing. it's messy. sometimes we are left with looking at the forest when we can't rely on the number of trees. right now the forest looks pretty bad.
  4. It’s not really that relevant. What’s hard for people to get is the importance of the percent positive dramatically increasing. For instance in the April surge the percent positive hovered around 4% , with this surge , at least in our area, the % positive is 29%. That implies many things. One of which is that we are not testing enough and that because of the delays in a national plan, contact tracing will likely not be as productive.the double count your talking about is negligible if it occurs at all. Remember it’s a percentage so would only affect the denominator. Even 50 extra cases in the numerator don’t change the percentage much. Also, the expectation is after a couple of weeks that they should not be positive if they were to begin with. The very few cases in which you’re catching people on the cusp doesn’t effect the numbers. Many other countries got way ahead of this thing. Germany one example among others. Here we still have leaders arguing over the only two things we know work; masks and social distancing. in many ways just the opposite. the doctors, and mostly the hospitals doing elective procedures desperately want to open up to do these. that's the main moneymaker. our entire health system is set up for procedural reimbursement. they absolutely need to get back in and do them. for instance while there may be a reimbursement under medicare of about 90-140$ to the doctor for a procedure. epidural injection for instance. there is up to a $2500 'facility fee' for hospitals and same day clinics. that's where the money is. that's why given the system we have, most groups try to buy into a same day surgery center and do the very same procedure there that they would do in the office but at a generous premium.
  5. Love Gretzky. Saw him many times. to do what he did at his size is amazing. Met him a couple of times after I saw him play. I imagined him so much bigger because of what he could do on the ice. He could get to any spot on the ice he wanted to and always seemed as if he had plenty of room. Amazing. But.... my heart goes to Mr Hockey. Longevity? played 32 seasons between the NHL and WHL. It took a superstar like Gretzky to come along before anyone could break his records. Gordie Howe. He would be my guy for too many reasons to name here.
  6. yes. good article. Thanks! and they quote Erin Bromage.
  7. "Again I ask—are there that many cheaters out there, that so many restrictions were built into the WHS? " it is frustrating. My index went down 3 points after watching Padraig Harrington Twitter lessons and now I've plateaued a little and its a real bear playing to my index. I will say though that I've found the cheating actually goes the other way. People cheat themselves. I've seen so many turn a bad playing round into a 'practice round' or give themselves shots and record their scores. A lot of people I've seen can never play to their index because they don't actually record all their scores. If they did, I think their index would be at least 1-2 strokes higher.
  8. Viral load is extremely important and is a factor for why people get a little sick or very sick. a good article on some basics The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the...
  9. I love the new system. much easier to think about the max net bogey limit in registering scores. Like the frequent updates, especially when playing money games. much easier to see everyones true handicap and recent scores. Also more fun for my wife when we play, or acutally anyone who doesn't have the patience for the old system. She never was interested in posting and improving her handicap previously because there was always a range of equitable scoring maximum depending on your base handicap. now she is excited about posting and getting better. It's been a real positive foe my golfing life. on an added note, when I played in ireland last year it was impossible to figure true course handicaps. I think it will be easier now if I go back again.
  10. Has anyone ever tried to convert a single strap bag to a double strap? I have a great leather single strap bag that I don't want to give up on. I saw a couple of stand alone x straps you can buy online but wasn't too impressed. any suggestions?
  11. Wow. just checked back in. And a Jim Rome reference too. Awesome! I see I must have struck a nerve. I think if you stick to data and separate that from legislative decisions or state regulations you'll find a happy medium. Try to remember that personal public health policy is what guides personal health behavior, not political decisions. Please stay safe and good luck. I'm in! Always.
  12. haha! well I guess when all else fails accuse someone of a conspiracy! I didn't start the thread or go on and on with opinions about COVID 19. In fact, you should look at the number of comments ive made in this topic and compare to yours. These are important discussions to have openly. I thought having this on a golf site was interesting. We have recently had a pandemic in the last 20 years. I'll let you guess which one. These are all great discussions so I have no beef to make with anyone. I enjoy thinking about this stuff, just like I enjoy the mental game of golf. There absolutely will be another pandemic!! OMG!! This one will be a great learning experience though and I am not scared about discussing these matters. When I saw all of your posts on COVID I thought you were interested as well. I apologize for making that assumption. This is an anxious time for everyone and it will be very interesting looking back on this and see how everyone's life has changed. Hit 'em straight! and Stay safe!! Cheers
  13. That's a political talking point. Scientific data regards the nature, transmission,tracking and treatment.And is vetted and peer reviewed. I have taken pains in my comments to refer to terms like consensus, and 'agreed upon data' .The epidemiological data you quote is something neither you nor I can confirm. nor really anyone yet. That does not count as data. That's a news scroll item on TV. Eventually we will know the true final agreed upon data. Hopefully. I am sure if you asked a chinese health expert they may disagree with you. Everything else is fun to argue about, I guess, but not really worth discussing. the kind of data you quote is like those little shiny things that keep distracting our attention. My hope is that despite the political, religious, and other affiliations, it's possible to agree on the data, and what accurate and consensus data is and simply disagree on the implementation of legislative solutions. Good luck! Stay safe "They better have some strong data to back that up." When you say they you are referring to our government. Scientists only make recommendations. 'They' can't force governments to do anything. Speak to your congressman. That is not a data issue. The results of all the different strategies will eventually be seen. There may be both some very surprising, and disappointing results. All we can do now given where we are is to mitigate for now and then hope we learn some lessons for the next time. I'll tell you something which I think has been a novel advance. The push towards opening led to looking at mitigation in a new way. Recommendations in the past were universal. This is the first time we have really looked at public pandemic health policy in a 'one size does not fit all' manner. That's exciting and should bring rewards for planning the next response. Good Luck! Stay safe!
  14. What your doctor says doesn't conflict with anything I said or anything that isn't currently in the news. What she is saying is accurate and is not related to the comments I made. Iny fact what she says is accurate and also completely unrelated to the points I made. That's confusing. You're conflating science and restrictions such as closing or opening up states. All these decisions have been made with the knowledge of the agreed upon facts. Some have been willing to combine mitigation strategies with increased/ or decreased restrictions based on policy decisions for their communities. I have no idea what your investment is in saying there are disagreements. Just to be clear, there is international consensus on this. International consensus based on decades of hard science. And, I might add, your doctor is absolutely correct on the unrelated comment of hers you are paraphrasing. Actually, there have been cases documented even earlier(in December) that were confirmed by blood samples that had been taken from severely affected patients in France and were still viable. See below. This is an evolving crisis. No scientist worth their salt would fixate on one fact or theory and reject other new data as it comes along. Only politics and religion creates those who can't be supple enough with their thinking to take in new data. That's why they are considered emotional beliefs, and not data. It doesn't diminish those ideas, but simply differentiates them as thoughts, philosophies, or beliefs, and not data. A scientist, as most people with opinions, who believes in the death penalty or abortion will almost never be convinced to believe in banning the death penalty, or banning abortion. But surprisingly that same scientist will defend his data and at the same time be open to how his or her original theory has potentially been changed by that data. Anyone who hasn't really experienced the scientific process has difficulty understanding this concept, as I who have never been in law enforcement, for instance, would poorly understand the validity of methods used that have been established on the basis of many years of experience and study in a field, I myself, have never studied adequately. At a certain point one simply has to decide how much trust they are willing to give. And that is often based on a combination of emotions, and the track record of success that the person or entity requiring trust has shown. France's first coronavirus case 'was in December' The case means Covid-19 may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought.
  15. Your comment is simply inaccurate. No reputable person on a national level disagrees with the basic facts I presented. Any suggestion that they don't is political not science. I have no problem with that. Politics have a lot of leeway when it comes to planning and interpreting data for the sake of their communities. But pretending that differences in state regulations are based on fundamental disagreements in scientific data doesn't bring us further in acting most efficiently in large scale problems such as pandemics. What you are describing is the amount of risk communities are willing to take when faced with data which outlines basic benefit risk ratios. That is a worthwhile and important political discussion we need to have. But it doesn't put facts into doubt. It only uses the facts we have to make decisions that may have varying risks in various communities. Doctors make those type of judgements everyday. We may be more comfortable with accepting these types of decisions than the general population. I think this enhanced comfort may apply to engineers, as well as lawyers, in the decisions they often have to make between established knowledge base and requirements of an individual case. But can't speak for them.
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