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JB Holmes was 239 yards from the hole in the fairway: -10 was in the house, and he sat at -8. He needed an eagle. I think that, given the conditions, he chose incorrectly. He was much more likely to be able to hole a shot from around the green than to hole a wedge shot from 100 yards. I think the stats would back that up pretty easily, even accounting for the presence of a backstop. The ONLY reason to not just blast the ball toward the back of the green is if you literally think there's more than about a 10% chance of the ball finding the water. For someone with JB's power, I'd think that's almost a non-issue - hit it into the grandstands, take your drop, and give yourself a 20-yard chip from the rough with the green filtering the ball down to the hole. I think this one's almost open and shut, even accounting for the backstop, unless he's feeling REALLY good about his 100-yard wedge game and REALLY bad about his short game at the time. But let's also, since this is just a mental exercise, pretend or assume JB didn't think he had a shot that would go 240+ yards to the middle-to-back of the green/rough. Why lay up to 100 yards? Why not 65? You'd still be almost 20 yards short of the water. Well, given the unique features of the hole, this is a case where backspin DOES matter, and the ability to create it, to help spin the ball back down the backstop, is relevant. A shot from 65 yards with less spin requires a finer touch - the ball has to land short of hole-high to have a chance, and a yard or two too short and it'll bounce off the front and go back into the water. So, I feel like the choices should have been: Hit the middle to back of the green (if it bounces into the back rough, fine). Lay up in the fairway to 100 yards, left-center of the fairway. Lay up some amount closer and/or farther to the right. Unfortunately, JB chose "4. Lay up in the primary rough after taking five minutes to decide against the better option, #1."