2008 Players (Championship) Predictions

The four major championships are obviously the biggest tournaments each season, but “The Players” is next in line. The field is always one of the best, and the course is always a tough test for the world’s top golfers. The TPC at Sawgrass is also one of the most recognizable layouts in the world thanks in part to its great finishing stretch. The 16th hole is a risk/reward par five, the 17th is the famous island hole, and the 18th is one of the toughest finishing holes in golf.

Tiger Woods is still out of action after his latest knee surgery, and while he hasn’t played his best golf at The Players, he still would have been the definite favorite this week. The only other golfers in the top 50 not in the field this week are Martin Kaymer (33), Arron Oberholser (42), Toru Taniguchi (44), and Robert Karlsson (48).

The Players was moved to May for the first time last season, and Phil Mickelson walked away the winner. With Woods away, Lefty will surely be the favorite this week, but who else has a good shot at winning the so-called “fifth major?” Also, who will disappoint this week, and who might surprise the golf world by contending down the stretch? Keep on reading to find out.

Contenders
Phil Mickelson may be the favorite on paper, but his game isn’t where it needs to be right now to repeat at The Players. Adam Scott, on the other hand, will definitely be a contender this week. Scott moved up to third in the world rankings after his tie for eighth at Quail Hollow last weekend. Two weeks ago, the young Aussie won the EDS Byron Nelson Championship in a playoff.

It’s easy to see Adam Scott is playing well right now, and in addition to that, he won The Players Championship in 2004. He has the game to win on any course as long as his putting holds up under pressure. It will hold up this week, and he will walk away with his second Players title.

The next contender on the list is Padraig Harrington. Harrington has played in six PGA Tour events in 2008, and has already netted three top-five finishes. The last one was a tie for fifth at The Masters last month. In addition to his solid play on the PGA Tour this season, he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 on the European Tour in the last six months.

Padraig Harrington hasn’t had much success the last three years at Sawgrass, but he was the runner-up in 2003 and 2004. The Irishman has played very well in big tournaments over the last few seasons, and he is playing very well right now. This combination makes him tough to bet against this week.

The last guy on the contenders list is Stewart Cink. Cink has been in the news a lot this season, mostly for his lopsided loss to Tiger Woods in the Match Play Championship and disqualification at The Zurich Classic. He has had a great season so far. In 10 PGA Tour starts in 2008, he has six top-10 finishes.

Cink finished in a tie for third at Augusta last month and a tie for eighth at The Wachovia Championship last week, so his game is very strong coming into the week. Also, it doesn’t hurt that he finished third last year at The Players. Cink is very solid from tee to green, but his putting has let him down on numerous occasions this season. He will once again be in the hunt this week, but his putting may keep him from winning first yet again.

Disappointments
It’s always tough listing disappointments because every golfer in the field is good enough to win on any given week. It’s tough, but I’m going to list a few anyway. The first that comes to mind is Justin Rose. Rose is currently ranked 10th in the world which surprises me a little. He has played well the last year or so, but his play the last month in particular hasn’t been very solid. He fired a great first round at Augusta but fell apart the last three days. His next two starts on the PGA Tour resulted in a withdraw at the Verizon Heritage and a missed cut at The Wachovia Championship.

In four starts in The Players, Rose has a tie for 39th (2003), tie for 58th (2004), and two MCs (2005 and 2006). The young Englishman didn’t play this event last season, but it’s easy to see the course hasn’t fit his eye very well. This tournament isn’t easy on a regular basis, and it’s definitely not easy when golfers come in playing poorly. Rose will miss his third consecutive cut at The Players.

Trevor Immelman is next on the list. Three and a half weeks ago, the young South African was being fit for his green jacket. Fast forward to today, and he has missed his last two cuts by a wide margin. Immelman still seems shell-shocked by all the attention he has received for winning The Masters, and he probably won’t play well until he gets a nice break from the game to regain his composure. Like I said above, the TPC at Sawgrass doesn’t take it easy on golfers who aren’t playing well. Our Masters champ is going to miss his third consecutive cut.

The last guy in this section is last week’s winner, Anthony Kim. This will be a huge surprise to many, but hear me out. Kim has played very well as of late, and he moved up to 16th in the world rankings after winning at Quail Hollow this past week. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the youngster play well this week, but he is going to get a lot more media attention than ever before. Ask Trevor Immelman how that’s working out for him.

Also, Anthony Kim was playing just as well last year heading into The Players. In 2007, he had four top-10 finishes by this time compared to three so far in 2008. If you are wondering how well he played at Sawgrass last year, how does a missed cut sound? Not only did Kim miss the cut, he shot rounds of 78 and 83. The combination of the extra media attention and poor results at the 2007 Players Championship tells me all I need to know about his chances this week.

The 17th at Sawgrass: perhaps the most famous par 3 in the game of golf?

Surprises
Steve Flesch hasn’t had much success at The Players Championship in the past, but he is playing about as well right now as he has in the last few seasons. He has finished in the top 30 in his last four events, including a tie for fifth at The Masters. He had a rough time on Sunday at Augusta, but he has bounced back with a couple solid finishes the last few weeks. Flesch won’t be a major contender this week, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see his name on the first or second page of the leaderboard when Sunday rolls around.

Steve Elkington is no stranger to The Players Championship. Elkington has won the event twice and has always seemed to play well in the state of Florida. The veteran has played well in 2008, finishing in the top 10 on three occasions. Add to that the fact he finished in a tie for 12th at Sawgrass last season. The course has always fit his eye, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in contention heading into the weekend.

The Final Say
The Ryder Cup and U.S. Open are my two favorite events in golf, but The Players Championship and Masters are next in line. The TPC at Sawgrass is definitely one of my favorite courses from a fan’s perspective. The last three holes are great and get most of the attention, but the entire course is phenomenal. There is a reason golfers consider this event the “fifth major.”

Like I said above, Adam Scott will be your winner this week. As for a winning score, I’ll say 279 (-9). Phil Mickelson finished at -11 last season, and things will be similar to that this season. If the wind rears its ugly head on multiple days, however, things could get ugly in a hurry. Regardless of the conditions, I’m looking forward to another great event.

It’s your turn to tell me what you think. Who is going to win The Players? Also, feel free to list a few possible disappointments. Finally, who might sneak up on the field and contend? If you have anything to add, please comment below or discuss it in the forum. Thanks for reading this week’s Thrash Talk and enjoy The Players!

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