2007 U.S. Open Staff Predictions

The 107th U.S. Open Championship returns to Oakmont, hosting the national championship for a record eighth time.

As usual, our staff has gathered our thoughts into an article. We’re putting our money where our mouths are, so to speak. More likely, we’re setting ourselves up for eventual ridicule, but hey, we can take it!

Read on to see how right – or how incredibly wrong – we may be as we predict the winner, score, and some surprises at the 2007 U.S. Open.

Thoughts on the Course

Erik J. Barzeski
I think Oakmont is perhaps one of the greatest U.S. Open courses in history. I would not have said so in 1994, only a few years after the “tree removal” program began, but Oakmont’s return to a treeless layout coincides with its return as one of the greatest tracks in the land.

Some have called Oakmont a “penal” golf course. If you want to be nice, you can call it a “target” golf course. And yet Oakmont, like courses across the Atlantic, is far more open to varieties of both strategy and shot than most U.S. Open courses. The long eighth hole accepts shots bounced onto the putting surface. The short par-four 17th can be played with anything from a 5-iron to a driver from the tee. The 667-yard par-five 12th plays quite a bit downhill and will be reachable by pros that want to get there, but which will still allow for good birdie opportunities for the cautious player.

Like Pinehurst, the true story of Oakmont is the greens, but unlike Pinehurst in 2005, the USGA won’t be able to artificially trick up the hole locations to reject virtually every shot that comes at them. You won’t see a barrage of birdies at Oakmont, but the course will relent to a well-played shot.

Jack Waddell
The USGA has well earned its reputation for setting up nigh impossible conditions on some of the country’s most difficult courses. Oakmont promises to continue that tradition. Ben Hogan aptly called it “the monster” and he may have been understating the metaphor. I had a chance to talk last week with Steven Kay, a New Jersey architect, and Ron Whitten, architectural editor for Golf Digest. Both applauded the recent removal of most of the trees from Oakmont to bring it back to more of its original configuration. I too think it was a good move and I can’t wait to watch the “new old” Oakmont in action against the world’s best.

Alan Olson
The USGA seems to mess around with a course and “trick it up” on order to protect their precious score of par. Oakmont doesn’t look like it needs any assistance in playing difficult. Pew bunkers, thick rough and a 288-yard par three should make this an entertaining test of golf. I’m looking forward to the par-four 17th which should tempt players to try to drive it.

Harry Solomon
After the restoration, there is no doubt in my mind that it is one of the hardest courses in the country. Just having rough as thick as molasses or having greens as slippery as glass or the multitude and variety of bunkers can make any course hard. Put them all together in a given week and what have you got? The U.S. Open at Oakmont.

Jeff Smith
U.S. Open sniveling is in full swing. Word on the street is that even the USGA is worried the rough is too tough. Pros who have visited Oakmont feel that this is going to be a tough year which is so much different than previous years (not!). More church pews have been added to the famous “Church Pews” bunker, perhaps to make more room for players to say their prayers.

Donald MacKenzie
Oakmont is a wonderful old-school design, and I’m rooting for it to really have a great week. Between the USGA’s maniacal setup and the fickle summer weather, it could turn into a Winged Foot-style bloodbath out there. I hope both of those factors are muted, giving a new generation of golfers a chance to fall in love with the church pew bunkers and all the other idiosyncrasies of a truly classic coruse.

Dave Koster
You may think that a course minus 4000 or 5000 trees would be easier, but the wind could be the biggest factor at Oakmont. Breezy conditions could make holes like the 288 yard par-three eighth quite interesting.

Winner and Score

Erik J. Barzeski
Tiger Woods will win this U.S. Open at 282 (+2). He’s going to employ the same strategy he had at Hoylake and Medinah last year in capturing the final two majors of 2006. It’s a strategy you could argue only Tiger is capable of executing (and one he should execute at Augusta as well!), and after what I saw at Muirfield Village two weeks ago, I’m convinced Tiger is preparing for this U.S. Open with perhaps as much resolve as he’s ever had. He didn’t win The Masters, he missed the cut last year, Jack has won at Oakmont, and Tiger may not play in the British Open this year – he has plenty of material about which to form that resolve.

Jack Waddell
Opens are so tough to pick because the way the course is traditionally set up, weather plays a huge factor in determining if shorter and more accurate players have any chance against the bombers. That said I have to go with a bomber. Tiger is too obvious a pick and I think he’s seemed a bit distracted at times this year. So I’m going with Phil at 282 (+2). His greenside magic may be just the thing to slay the dragon. And goodness knows he’s motivated.

Alan Olson
Tiger Woods figures out his putter and hits 3-wood off the tee all week to win with a score of 278 (-2).

Harry Solomon
The person who is going to win this tournament will be smart and check their ego and driver at the door. Tiger Woods will be that person with the final score of 281 (+1).

Jeff Smith
This event is perfect for Zach Johnson. Augusta National’s managers have adopted the same philosophy as the USGA and Johnson has already proven he can win a U.S. Open event at the 2007 Masters. Winning score will be one under par, 279 (-1).

Donald MacKenzie
Tiger Woods, 276 (-4). Surprise! Tiger wins! He doesn’t have a chink in his armor right now: he’s healthy, his swing is on track and he wants to make hay before he has to start changing diapers. And he might still be motivated by missing the cut at Winged Foot, don’t you think?

Dave Koster
Tiger Woods, 279 (-1). I waffled between picking Toms or Verplank as well. I really think that the person that wins will have to putt really, really well. Tiger will be focused and get the win as the only person under par for the week.

Dark-Horse Winner

Erik J. Barzeski
This is our “second chance” in case our first pick fails to win. A true “dark horse” should be someone not rated in the top 30 in the world, not touted to win a major, and certainly not one who’s already won a major this year. Dark horses are long shots to break through and get their first major win. I’m going with Ian Poulter as my dark horse this year. If you don’t like him because he’s currently #30 on the dot, then take Sean O’Hair or Ben Crane. Yeah, that Ben Crane.

Jack Waddell
Just to hedge my bet on the pick of a bomber as a winner, for my dark-horse winner I’m going with a plinker. Luke Donald strikes me as the kind of player with the game and cool aplomb to pull off a U.S. Open win. He’s steady and sometimes that’s the key to navigating a minefield like Oakmont.

Alan Olson
Stewart Cink has played some good golf as of late and wins his first major.

Harry Solomon
If Adam Scott can get his fairway percentage up into the 70s for this tournament, it will be his for the taking.

Jeff Smith
K.J. Choi is quietly proving his ability to play this game as well as anyone as we witnessed recently at the Memorial Tournament. I think we could see him hoist his first major championship in 2007.

Donald MacKenzie
Ernie Els. The Aging Easy hasn’t been on form the last few years, but I have a feeling that he’s about to turn the corner. Maybe returning to Oakmont will give him a little mojo and get him over the hump.

Dave Koster
Justin Rose. I figure if I keep picking him, I’ll be right one of these times. Rose is putting really good this year and on the large greens of Oakmont he’ll need that skill to be at its peak.

Biggest Disappointment

Erik J. Barzeski
Phil Mickelson will be unable to overcome the wrist injury – or more so, all of the mental baggage that comes along with it. Plus, the course really doesn’t set up well for him. Mickelson’s short game is good, but he’s a streaky putter and Oakmont will favor players who leave the ball in the right places, not players who are capable of using a 64° wedge when they go at a pin and miss in a bad spot. His driving may be straighter, but his attitude hasn’t changed much. He will not be in contention on Sunday.

Jack Waddell
Ernie Els. I think he’s at a crossroads in his career and the road he’s traveling is not one that will lead to another major. More and more I’m getting the impression that as big and strong as Ernie is, he’s pretty fragile mentally. The equipment change hasn’t seemed to have had a positive effect on his game. I would love to see him seriously contend for this title again, but I’m disappointed to believe it just won’t happen.

Alan Olson
Davis Love III hasn’t had a top ten finish since February. His slide continues and he fails to make the cut.

Harry Solomon
If Phil Mickelson hurts his wrist from just practicing in the rough at Oakmont, just imagine what will happen in tournament conditions. He will push through the pain since its the U.S. Open but he will be lucky to make the cut.

Jeff Smith
Tiger Woods’ driving is driving him crazy and Phil Mickelson has a hurt wrist. I just don’t think that we’re going to see a high-profile winner this weekend. Come on boys! Prove me wrong.

Donald MacKenzie
The Internationals. All the young Euros lining up to be the Next Big Thing will need to wait at least a month. I just don’t see Oakmont yielding to the likes of Sergio, Stenson, or Donald.

Dave Koster
Phil. I just don’t think his wrist will hold up to the thick rough. After a few days of hitting out of that stuff he may not be around for the weekend.

Largest Surprise

Erik J. Barzeski
There will be a lot more birdies at this U.S. Open than any of recent memory. There may be more bogeys, too, to even things out in the end. Hit the targets, make the putts, get birdies. Miss, bogey. Par is still going to be a good score at Oakmont, but “par” may be six birdies, six bogeys, and six pars.

Jack Waddell
Reigning U.S. Senior Open champion Allen Doyle makes the 36-hole cut.

Alan Olson
2006 U.S. Amateur Champion, Richie Ramsay finishes in the top ten.

Harry Solomon
Ernie Els makes the top 10.

Jeff Smith
Charles Howell III has long proven his inability to do anything meaningful on a big Sunday. He’s going to make a move on Sunday that will have us media-types thinking he’ll finally start living up to his tremendous potential.

Donald MacKenzie
That Oakmont isn’t obsolete. That a great old design doesn’t need to be stretched to 8,000 yards to put on a good show. And that a 288-yard par three is more fun than an island green.

Dave Koster
I think Tiger will win his first major from behind. My guess is that he’ll be a shot or two back going into the last round and be one of a few people under par the last day and win it by a shot or two.

As for a surprise player, I’ll be keeping my eye on Aaron Baddely. He’s had a pretty sold year only missing one cut with five top-10s in 13 tournaments… he’s also very solid with the flat stick.