2006 U.S. Open Predictions

U.S. Open week has finally arrived, and The Sand Trap is the place to be for top-notch predictions. None of us picked Phil Mickelson to win The Masters earlier this year, but we are ready to bounce back and get things right this time around.

Winged Foot is the site of the 2006 U.S. Open, and it appears to be in great shape. This tournament will once again test the nerves of the world’s best, and par will be a great score. The rough has received the most attention so far, so it’s fairways and greens once again. The golfer who consistently hits fairways and greens along with rolling in a few putts here and there will more than likely walk away the 2006 U.S. Open champion.

The Sand Trap staff members have had plenty of time to contemplate the options, but the time for thinking is over. It’s time for all of us to put up or shut up. As always, feel free to post your predictions below or discuss them in our forum.

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Erik J. Barzeski

Thoughts on the Course

I’m looking forward to another massacre. No, seriously, I’ll be interested to see how the graduated rough works out – whether the first cut is reasonably playable (i.e. offers some chance to go at the green) or whether it’s still a pitch out for all but the strongest of players.

Winner and Score

Tiger Woods, 279. They say it’s never smart to bet against Tiger, and I think that with the added determination of winning on Father’s Day, Tiger is the man to beat once again. And who knows – the layoff may in fact help.

Dark-Horse Winner

I’m going to go with Olin Browne. He’s struggled this year, but if there’s a place to find your game, it’s at the U.S. Open.

Biggest Disappointment

Having just fallen from the top 5, Ernie Els will continue his slide and miss the cut. He simply doesn’t trust his knee enough to stay down through impact.

Largest Surprise

Edoardo Molinari will be the low amateur and will finish inside the top 20.

Bonus Pick

Phil Mickelson will bring three drivers, two putters, and four wedges. He’ll claim that he hits the ball 20 yards further with his new equipment and that he’d be ever so humble and happy to win on Father’s Day, because being a dad is just so gosh darn important to him. He won’t finish in the top 30.

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Donald MacKenzie

Thoughts on the Course

I had a chance to play Winged Foot the day after the 1997 PGA Championship, and it was brutal. Hitting into the rough meant an automatic chop sideways to the fairway, with no way to advance the ball toward the green. The bunkers around the greens were deep and well-placed. And the putting surfaces were unbelievable. Would I want to be a member and play at Winged Foot (which has another 18 that the members think might actually be harder) a few times a week? No way. But do I want to see the world’s best players take it on under tough conditions? Absolutely.

Winner and Score

Ernie Els will win at 1-under 279. Ernie’s been lurking all year, and his laid-back style is perfect for a survival-style site like Winged Foot. The USGA will be thrilled that only one player finishes under par.

Dark-Horse Winner

Charl Schwartzel is the next great South African player. Only 21, Charl has all the tools you need to be a star on the PGA Tour, though he’s still playing mainly on the PGA European Tour. Look for that to change in a hurry if he makes a splash at Winged Foot.

Biggest Disappointment

Davis Love III, who misses the cut in his return to the site of his only major championship. The window is closing for Davis. Who’d have thunk in the early 1990s that DL III and his buddy Fred Couples would end up with two majors between them?

Largest Surprise

That the USGA has the sense to keep the greens alive. A warm, dry week is forecast for the Open, and the USGA will recognize that Winged Foot doesn’t need to be tricked up to play faster than a bowling alley. I expect them to put plenty of water on the greens each night and avoid having to “syringe” them during the rounds. (OK, they’ll probably still brown them out by Wednesday. But that’s what would make the opposite happening a surprise, right?)

Bonus Pick

They say even politicians and whores become respectable if they hang around long enough. The same happens to despised golfers, and look for Colin Montgomerie to become respectable in the eyes of the New York crowd this week. Monty’s no longer got the game or the hubris to command hatred from the fans, and the gallery will probably look at the lumpy Scotsman with the bad back and the worse putting stroke and see a more human, humane figure. Look for Monty to ride the relative adulation – and his still-remarkable ball-striking skills – to a surprising top-10 finish.

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Dave Koster

Thoughts on the Course

Previous host of four U.S. Opens and, most recently, the 1997 PGA Championship won by Davis Love III, there’s not much to dislike about Winged Foot. I like the fact that there are some holes where par is a great score and some where par is not as good. Players will know where those are and pick their spots where to attack. I’m just hoping that there isn’t another “Massacre at Winged Foot” like there was in 1974.

Winner and Score

Adam Scott – 279 (-1) – He’s playing some of his best golf in the recent weeks and if he can minimize his mistakes, I think the popular Aussie will win his first major. Scott has every shot in the bag and can easily manage the Winged Foot course. Phil is putting great, but not keeping the ball in play… which will kill you in the Open. I’m not sure what to expect from Tiger after his long layoff.

Dark-Horse Winner

Lucas Glover. He’s been playing a lot of good golf this year and could shock everyone with a major in only his second full year on tour. Villegas is a close second, but I can’t see him winning a major just yet… Glover has a better makeup and already seems like a seasoned veteran out there.

Biggest Disappointment

At first I was going to say Vijay, but now his game is coming around a bit. This time I’ll have to go with Sergio. We haven’t heard much from the Spaniard this year and really don’t expect it to start at a U.S. Open. He may be around for the weekend, but if you are in the top 10 in world golf rankings, playing golf on Saturday and Sunday just isn’t good enough.

Largest Surprise

Green – players that is. I think that we’re going to see a few relatively “green” players near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. I’m picking Glover to have a good week, but don’t be surprised if an Arron Oberholser sneaks up there as well.

Another guy to keep your eye on – Rod Pampling. While he isn’t nearly as green as these other guys and can’t really be considered a dark horse (ranked in the top 30 in the world) he isn’t the first guy out of most people’s mouths when picking winners. The Bay Hill Champion has a wonderful short game. If he has a good ball-striking week at Winged Foot, I expect him near the top of the leaderboard at the end.

Bonus Pick

Martha Burke pickets the U.S. Open for making qualifying “too hard” for Michelle Wie. Burke says that the USGA has made it unfair for women to compete in the tournament and that men have an advantage from the tees they qualify from. She suggests that Michelle get a special exemption for “coming close enough.”

Newly appointed USGA spokesman Hootie Johnson makes a brief statement saying that Martha should “get a job.” He suggests that there is an opening for a putting coach for Michelle Wie.

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Jeff Smith

Thoughts on the Course

All the USGA’s evil henchmen are awaiting success. The last time the U.S. Open was at Winged Foot Zoeller won at +7. There are still visions of Nicklaus’ 25-foot birdie putt careening 30 feet past the hole dancing in the collective memory of USGA officials. Winged Foot going to play tough and it will be fun to watch.

Winner and Score

Luke Donald, 282 (+2). Everyone knows he can drive the ball straight and hit solid irons. Accuracy is going to make the overwhelming difference.

Dark-Horse Winner

Brett Quigley has been playing very well this year and has tons of confidence following his high finish at the Barclay’s Classic. He might just come from nowhere like Kiwi Michael Campbell.

Biggest Disappointment

Expectations for Phil Mickelson run high, as they should. He’s won the last two majors but we’re not going to see a Mickel-slam. Lefty will finish outside the top 25.

Largest Surprise

Look for a hole in one on the final day by someone in the final pair.

Bonus Pick

Retief Goosen will finally crack under the pressure and curl up in the fetal position in six inches of rough. His new nickname will be “The Weeping Iceman.”

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Cody Thrasher

Thoughts on the Course

Winged Foot gets overlooked by fans of Bethpage Black and Shinnecock Hills, but there is really no reason for that. It’s no secret that I enjoy watching the world’s best struggle to make par, and that will certainly be the case this week at Winged Foot. The rough is as nasty as I have seen in recent memory, and who knows how crispy the greens will be by Father’s Day. It’s going to be a grueling week, and an even-par finish after 72 holes will be excellent!

Winner and Score

Jim Furyk, even par. It’s never smart to pick against Tiger, but I always seem to do it. That being said, I’m going with Furyk. I picked him at the beginning of the year, and I’m sticking to it. He has had some injury problems, and the rough could force him to withdraw before it’s all said and done. However, Furyk is a very accurate driver and a great putter. That goes a long way in contending at any U.S. Open.

Dark-Horse Winner

Jay Haas. Haas has been on fire on the Champions Tour the past couple months, and he is also a very accurate driver. If the conditions are dry, the shorter drivers will get more roll. That will put guys like Haas in contention into the weekend. If Haas can continue his solid putting, he might shock a lot of fans this weekend.

Biggest Disappointment

Adam Scott. I hate to pick Adam Scott as my disappointment because he has played so well recently. That being said, he struggles every time I think he should do well, and the U.S. Open isn’t necessarily his cup of tea. The young Aussie misses the cut this week at Winged Foot (I hope I’m wrong by the way).

Largest Surprise

The high amount of short hitters that will be in contention on the weekend. I’m talking about guys like Jay Haas, Scott Verplank, Luke Donald, and even Jim Furyk to a certain extent. This week will be the week of the accurate, and the week of the great putters. The big bombers will struggle with the nasty rough.

Bonus Pick

After predicting someone will hit the wrong ball in the nasty rough at Winged Foot, Phil will indeed be the first one to hit the wrong ball. Lefty will then face numerous penalty strokes after his playing partner notices Phil putting a “Tiger” ball at the green. There goes three majors in a row!

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Everardo Keeme

Thoughts on the Course

From everything I’ve read, Mike Davis has really done his homework and has been very creative in setting up the course for play. Since it’s a U.S. Open, it’s going to be brutal, and I’m going to love it. Not that I love seeing pros struggle, but it’s nice to see them grind and step up to a challenge when it presents itself. While I don’t know the course too well, it’s good to see an older venue return after a 22-year hiatus. Lastly, I’m sure the New York fans will be in full force this week.

Winner and Score

Phil Mickelson, -5 (275). There are many names to choose from, but my vote is with the top players right now. And at the top of my list is Phil Mickelson. I’ve been really impressed with his new focus and preparation for majors. I also believe his mental toughness has improved, and he has gained the confidence knowing that he is a legitimate major contender. I like that he treats certain events as warm-ups and uses them as more of a practice round for what’s to come. Much like an athlete in other sports, he has learned to prepare, train, and peak at hopefully the right times.

Dark-Horse Winner

Davis Love III. He’s 29th on the money list and has 29 runner-up finishes including a U.S. Open. This puts him just behind Greg Norman’s 31 runner-up finishes. He’s more of a sentimental favorite, and I think it would be a great cap to a great career. Plus he won the last major played at Winged Foot.

Biggest Disappointment

Defending Champion Michael Campbell. His best finish this year was a fourth at the Mercedes Championship. Other than that strong finish, he has disappeared from the PGA Tour radar, missing the cut in three of the five events he’s played here (including The Players Championship and The Masters). Sorry Cambo, but unless you pull off a dark horse-win like last year, your 15 minutes are up.

Largest Surprise

Jay Haas is coming off three straight wins on the Champions Tour, including the Senior PGA Championship. He’s recently tied Tom Kite’s all-time PGA Tour record for most cuts made at 592, showing that his game and career have been very consistent which I believe you need in a tough event.

Bonus Pick

You can guarantee there will be no emergency watering of the greens this year!

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Jeff Gladchun

Thoughts on the Course

I’m excited to see the U.S. Open come to Winged Foot. After the ’74 Massacre it’ll be interesting to see how they set the course up. I’m looking for greens rolling about 10-12, nothing crazy, but with a rock hard surface so that misplaced approach shots won’t hold.

Winner and Score

Tiger Woods: 273 (-7).

Dark-Horse Winner

Camilo Villegas (95th in the world).

Biggest Disappointment

Ernie Els will miss the cut.

Largest Surprise

Camilo Villegas will be in contention on Sunday.

Bonus Pick

Mickelson will take out his putter in order to carry a third driver, this one set to snap hook. Putting is so old-school.

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Jack Waddell

Thoughts on the Course

Winged Foot West is typical Tillinghast… super long, super tight, and demanding beyond the ability of most mortals. Unlike Bethpage Black, the last Tillie course to host the Open, it requires pinpoint approaches to the greens to avoid impossible putts. The USGA says they’re going to try for green speeds around 11. That’s because they don’t have to be faster to still be treacherous.

Winner and Score

If there’s a better player in the world than Tiger Woods, it has to be Tiger Woods on a mission (see Stephen Ames, Accenture Match Play). I think coming out of mourning he has an obvious and compelling mission and while I can never bring myself to root for him, I have to pick him. Tiger wins by four at -4 (276).

Dark-Horse Winner

Mark Hensby, ranked around 61st in the world, is just the kind of ornery, contrary little Aussie to upset all predictions. He doesn’t have the length, the skill, or the momentum, but he does have the grit. And sometimes that’s what it really takes to win a U.S. Open. By the way, last year he tied for third.

Biggest Disappointment

Phil Mickelson finishes tied for second with Retief Goosen. Personally, I’d like to see Phil with three consecutive majors or Retief with three U.S. Opens. But I don’t think it’s going to happen. Thus my disappointment.

Largest Surprise

Tiger sheds no tears when he speaks of his father during his trophy acceptance speech.

Bonus Pick

Steve Williams, Tiger Woods’ caddie, suffers minor injuries during a practice round when he again snatches a camera from a fan. The fan and his associates, all from Jersey, are not amused. Goon lesson ensues.