The 2008 British Open starts today, and that means it’s prediction time for The Sand Trap staff. Tiger Woods will be missing his first major championship as a professional, so the rest of the field will need to step it up and take advantage. The list of favorites include Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, and Ernie Els.
The course for this year’s British Open Championship is Royal Birkdale, and it seems to be in great shape. Mark O’Meara won a playoff the last time the Open Championship was played at Birkdale, and things should be exciting this time around as well.
Who is going to win this year’s British Open, and who is going to be a disappointment? Also, who are some possible dark-horse winners? We will do our best to predict the outcome, and if you have some predictions of your own, please list them below or discuss it in the forum.
Thoughts on the Course
Erik J. Barzeski
I wasn’t quite the golf fan I was in 1998 (being busy with a summer job between college sessions and all), so I didn’t see much of Mark O’Meara’s win. However, I’m excited this time around, as Royal Birkdale seems to be one of the more undulating links courses, and thus one of the more interesting ones, in recent memory. I think luck will play a role this week, and luck is only unwelcome if it results in a Todd Hamilton win. Oh, and another thing I’m digging: two par fives in the closing four holes.
Donald MacKenzie
I’ve never played Royal Birkdale, and people I know who have dispute Jack Nicklaus’ oft-repeated quip that British Open courses get worse the further south you go. Royal Birkdale has hosted more Open Championships than any place not called the Old Course at St. Andrews and for a few good reasons. First, it’s a solid test of golf with fewer quirks than some courses in the Open rota – the fairways are well-defined and flat, good shots are rewarded, and the greens aren’t severe. Second, it’s a stadium golf course that predates the American idea of spectator-centric layouts. The high sand dunes between holes give fans excellent vantage points, and the players also like the dunes for the assistance they give in framing the fairways. While it is more straightforward than some links courses in the rota, Royal Birkdale does have a demanding and dramatic back nine that sets up perfectly for major championship golf.
Cody Thrasher
Royal Birkdale is possibly my favorite course in the British Open rotation because it’s tough but fair. The world’s best seem to torch St. Andrews with low scores, while courses like Carnoustie are almost unfair at times. Birkdale looks to be in great shape heading into the event. Accuracy off the tee will be a must because of the nasty rough, and that brings some of the shorter hitters into the mix. If the world’s best play well, they can card solid scores. If they slip up a little, the course will punish them. That’s how things should always be at major venues.
Alan Olson
Royal Birkdale hosts the Open Championship for the ninth time. It will play 7,173 yards and par is 70. The weather holds the key to what kind of Open we will see. If conditions are calm, we should see some good scoring. If it’s windy and wet, on the other hand, we could be in for a repeat of 1998.
George Promenschenkel
The dune lands of Royal Birkdale should make for beautiful golf. At Royal Birkdale, the holes wind through the valleys between the dunes, providing relatively flat lies. The grass-covered dunes frame the holes and will punish wayward shots more often than not. As always with the Open Championship, the weather will be the deciding factor as to which side of par the championship is played. If the wind, rain, or chill dominate, the field will struggle to break 70. If conditions are soft, the winning score will be double-digits under par. There are just two par 5s on the par-70 layout, but they both come in the last four holes. That should make for exciting play down the stretch on Sunday.
Danny Ottmann
Royal Birkdale has made some changes in an effort to “reward strategic play and accurate shotmaking.” They lengthened the course, but it still isn’t the length that gives Royal Birkdale its teeth. Most of the changes deal with line of play, mounds, and bunkering so you can bet it will be a very true test of links golf. And with the only two par 5s on the course coming in the last four holes, you can bet on some late-round excitment on Sunday.
Winner and Score
Erik J. Barzeski
Sergio Garcia, -8 (272). Sergio just had a 21-putt final round performance, and it appears his putting has come full circle. Despite only average putting at The Players, Sergio notched the biggest win of his career in an event not named “The Ryder Cup,” and looks to top that this week. Those who have heard me say Sergio will never win a major may be surprised at this pick, but I honestly didn’t think he had it in him to turn it around as quickly and as well as he seems to have done. If he does win, I hope he’s also learned to be a graceful, mature adult as well.
Donald MacKenzie
Jim Furyk, -6 (274). Furyk possesses all the attributes needed to win this week. He is accurate off the tee, controls the trajectory of his iron shots, has a creative short game, and is an excellent pressure putter. He excels on Open-style courses where the scoring can’t get too low. He’s not going to win at the Old Course, but Royal Birkdale should be just right for him. He had a solid top-five finish at the AT&T, and he’ll have his game face on this week.
Cody Thrasher
Robert Karlsson, -3 (277). This may seem like a dark-horse pick to some, but the Swede is ranked 23rd in the world and has all the tools needed to win majors. Karlsson is one of only four golfers to finish inside the top 10 in this year’s Masters and U.S. Open. There will be several golfers finish within a shot or two of the lead, but in the end, it will be Karlsson lifting the Claret Jug.
Alan Olson
Tiger? Not there. Kenny Perry? In Milwaukee. I’ll go with Adam Scott at even par (280).
George Promenschenkel
Tiger, er, no, he’s out. Kenny, oh, right, … With the absences, this year’s Champion Golfer of the Year will be Lee Westwood at -10 (270). He’s an experienced player who seems to play well in the early rounds of big events. This may be the year he finishes strong or, at least, holds on. The weather will be in the lower 60s and damp which is perfect for an Englishman.
Danny Ottmann
Tiger Woods…..ummmmmm wait he will be watching from the same vantage point as the rest of us. I will go with Adam Scott at -6 (274). The young Aussie will finally have his breakout major. I just hope nobody cheapens it by saying Tiger wasn’t there.
Other Top Contenders
Erik J. Barzeski
Quite honestly, there aren’t any in my mind. Few of the top guys are playing well (with the exception of Phil, and c’mon…). Ernie Els’ name has been thrown about, but I don’t see it – he can’t hold it together for four rounds. Martin Kaymer may contend. Boo Weekley, it could be his kind of course, and I think Boo will win a British Open some day (and if he plays long enough before retiring to his hunting cabin).
Donald MacKenzie
Justin Rose will likely have some good vibes at the course where he made his big splash as an amateur in 1998. I also like Padraig Harrington – a solid tee-to-green guy who can really putt on the bumpy greens of the British Isles.
Cody Thrasher
Sergio Garcia is the first that comes to mind. This is possibly his best shot to win a major, and he is playing well enough to get the job done. He is nearly a lock to finish in the top 10, but that doesn’t mean he will finish in first. The leaderboard will be bunched up, and it’s easy to see Garcia missing a clutch putt or two down the stretch. Keep an eye on Justin Leonard as well. After a few practice rounds at Birkdale, the Texan felt pretty good about his chances. He is accurate off the tee and has won a British Open before. This might be his week if he can drain some putts.
Alan Olson
Padraig Harrington (if his wrist holds up), Sergio Garcia, Geoff Oglivy, and Justin Rose.
George Promenschenkel
The course sets up well for a player like Justin Leonard. He hits the ball low (out of the wind)and hits a lot of fairways. Plus, he putts very well. Look for Vijay Singh to add his third top-20 finish at Royal Birkdale (he finished 12th in 1991 and 19th in 1998). He hasn’t played well lately, but if he can remember how to use a putter over the weekend, he might get into the mix on Sunday afternoon. Miguel Angel Jimenez will also be in the hunt again.
Danny Ottmann
You have to go with some of the talented Europeans like Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, and especially Lee Westwood. Westwood’s gutty play at the U.S. Open turned some American heads and alerted a lot of people to this talented guy who still spends most of his time on the other side of the pond. The Europeans play a great deal more golf in the conditions everyone will find at Royal Birkdale.
Dark-Horse Winner
Erik J. Barzeski
As if Sergio isn’t – for me at least – a dark-horse pick! 🙂 Okay, seriously though, a guy outside the top 50… Arron Oberholser. He’s been battling injuries but I have a weird feeling about him this week. Call it a hunch.
Donald MacKenzie
Miguel Angel Jimenez is a perfect guy to fly under the radar and steal a British Open. He could take advantage of the Tiger-free proceedings and become the first non-LPGA Tour player to win a major while sporting a ponytail.
Cody Thrasher
Nick O’Hern is one of the most accurate golfers on the planet, and that will pay dividends this week at Royal Birkdale. Australians have had success at this track before, and it will be surprising if O’Hern’s name isn’t a fixture at the top of the leaderboard when the weekend rolls around.
Alan Olson
Martin Kaymer gets the nod here. If you follow the European Tour, you know who he is. The rest of the world will find out this week.
George Promenschenkel
I kind of want to pick Ernie Els as a dark horse, but the sixth-ranked player in the world hardly qualifies. Still, who really thinks he has a chance? OK, my real dark horse pick is Rocco Mediate, the feel-good story of the year. He’s been in contention (recently, if I remember correctly), and he almost always plays well in big events. Why not Rocco? The back seems healed, and there’s no Tiger to overcome.
Danny Ottmann
Dare I say Monty? Yes I am calling it, Colin Montgomerie. He is in a race to make the European Ryder Cup team and has shown the occasional return to form as of late. Nothing would put him on the Ryder Cup team faster than a win at the British Open.
Biggest Disappointment
Erik J. Barzeski
Padraig Harrington, defending his title, will falter. Phil Mickelson will continue to flat out suck at the British Open. Anthony Kim and the other American “young guns” on the PGA Tour will not make much of a splash. But the biggest disappointment? Kenny Perry may make the Ryder Cup team and not even have played in a major in 2008. Shame on you, Kenny.
Donald MacKenzie
That Kenny Perry isn’t in the field. He’s such a fun player to watch when he gets on a hot streak, and he’s sizzling right now. I just don’t see how you can duck a prime event because you don’t like to travel and the venue doesn’t suit you. Does David Wright sit out West Coast trips for the Mets because it’s a long plane ride and it’s hard to hit home runs in Petco Park? I’d love to see KP flying it at the flags at Royal Birkdale this week, but he’s decided for the glorious Scott Hoch travel plan. Lame.
Cody Thrasher
Tiger is missing his first major as a professional. That stinks for golf because a lot of casual American fans will probably miss the event because of his absence. As for golfer disappointments, I’ll go with Justin Rose. Everyone is high on his chances because of the vibes he had here 10 years ago as an amateur. That being said, he hasn’t played very well this year, and he will have plenty of media time to talk about it. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Rose miss the cut this week.
Alan Olson
Phil Mickelson. Other than a third-place finish in 2004, Phil hasn’t fared too well in the Open Championship. Mr. Overanalyze will go home early this week to check on his house that is for sale.
George Promenschenkel
It may well be a tough tournament for the top-ranked players. With Tiger out, they could feel extra pressure to get a major win while the top player is on the sideline. Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia hit the ball well, but both have streaky, sputtering putters. Pressure is not good for already-shaky putting. Mickelson too will continue his struggles at the Open Championship.
Danny Ottmann
Phil Mickelson will show up again with some screwy idea like hitting a one iron off every tee and carrying nine wedges. He will promptly shoot 15-over and miss the weekend. Sorry Phil, I like you, but you are too much of a headcase this year to contend.
Photo Credits: © 2008 The Sand Trap .com.
Guys, what a great round up. I think the (especially young) americans won’t feature much this week. They just don’t have the experience for links golf. Take Phil for example. He’s the 2nd ranked player in the world (for the longest time) and has a wicked short game. However, he’s only featured once as a threat to taking home the claret jug. Having said that, almost any european could have a hot week and win it. Your guess is as good as mine, but I like sergio if he gets off to a good start.
Great predictions but who could have foreseen the reality?
If crowd sentiment has its way then Greg Norman will win his richly-deserved third Major.
Lord, I am sooooo looking forward to Sunday!!
Phil
Yes, agreed, a great round up indeed. It’s exactly what most were thinking and the reasons fantastic. There’s no way in anyone’s right mind that they would have predicted the situation at the end of the 3rd round. One more to go…