The season’s final major begins today, and it’s time for more predictions from The Sand Trap staff. After an exciting WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last weekend, names like Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, and Lee Westwood have popped up as favorites this week. Mickelson and Singh have three major victories apiece, while Westwood is still looking for his first.
The golfers are only half the equation, however. The venue for this year’s PGA Championship is Oakland Hills, and it will be a tough test to say the least. It will play nearly 7,400 yards, and with par being 70, it will be a beast.
Who is going to win this year’s final major, and who else might be a serious threat? Also, who are some possible dark horses and disappointments? As always, we will give it our best shot. If you have any predictions to add, please comment below or discuss them in the forum.
Thoughts on the Course
Erik J. Barzeski
I played Oakland Hills a long time ago, and after lipping out for birdie on the first and two-putting for birdie on the second hole, I promptly declared that I may as well walk in so that I could claim to have parred half and birdied half of the holes I played at Oakland Hills, and that it would all be downhill from there. My bogey on the third confirmed that.
The course is very much about the greens, and though I’m cautiously optimistic that the PGA hasn’t overdone the USGA setup pre-Mike Davis (narrow fairways, tall rough), a big part of me thinks we’re going to see some boring golf this week. What with Steve Jones winning the U.S. Open here in 1996, I’m hopeful Sunday isn’t a no-name fest with boring golf and a winning score (well) over par.
Donald MacKenzie
The PGA usually sets up its championship courses in a less severe manner than the USGA. This year might be an exception. Why? Because there is nothing you can do to make the South Course at Oakland Hills play anything but severe. This is old-school smashmouth golf, and the recent renovation is primed to make the pros grouse. The ninth hole is a great example: a 257-yard par three where anything short, long, left, or right is dead. Have at it, boys. For all the things Oakland Hills is – iconic, beautiful, unique – it’s never fun.
Cody Thrasher
Oakland Hills is going to be a beast this week for the world’s best. Accuracy off the tee will be important, mostly so players can play their second shots to correct positions on the greens. Speaking of greens, they are some of the toughest in the United States. Like a lot of major venues, Oakland Hills will require golfers to putt well in order to shoot solid scores. When all is said and done, any score under par will win or be pretty darn close.
Dave Koster
It’s amazing to see how many yards have been added. Going through the list you see 37, 32, 20, 32, etc. At 7,395 yards, the par-70 course’s length alone doesn’t make it a monster… everything along with it does. This course will not favor the long or short hitter but perhaps the most well-rounded.
Alan Olson
The Monster comes in at just under 7,500 yards and plays to a par 70. Boasting a rich history of holding majors, this Donald Ross design continues to get better with age. The flatstick better be in fine form, or the greens here will eat you alive.
George Promenschenkel
Oakland Hills’ primary defense is its greens, and they are plenty fierce enough to hold their own against the best golfers in the world. Playing almost 7,400 from the back of the tees, the course will give players fits trying to hit specific zones on the greens with mid and long irons. Provided the course doesn’t get too much rain this week, the field should struggle to shoot par.
Danny Ottmann
You can’t ask for a better and more prestigious golf course to hold a major. This course has held 10 prior major championships, and the cream always seems to rise to the top so-to-speak. Great players like Hogan, Player, Palmer, and Nicklaus have captured major championships at the venue. That being said, it will set up very difficult, and the rough will be penal to say the least. Oakland Hills is always among the best and definitely toughest golf courses in the world.
Winner and Score
Erik J. Barzeski
I’m going way, way, way out on a limb and picking Boo Weekley at even par (280). I think Boo’s too dumb to notice how difficult the darn course is. I think Oakland Hills is going to bring everyone to the middle. I think luck is going to play a role, and I think the short game is almost a non-factor with the five-inch greenside rough that’s being vacuumed to stay tall.
Donald MacKenzie
Justin Leonard, +5 (285). Weather could play a factor here, especially if the course gets a lot of rain and plays extra-long. But if conditions hold – the fairways are fast – length won’t be an issue. But it will take a grinder’s mentality to win at Oakland Hills. The greens are among the toughest in the world, and there will be bogeys aplenty. Leonard knows how to grind, and he can hit all the shots you need to win a major.
Cody Thrasher
Jim Furyk, -1 (279). The golf world has seen flashes of Furyk’s solid game this year, but we haven’t seen as much as we are used to. That changes this week, however, as he has the perfect game for Oakland Hills. He hits a lot of fairways, manages his irons very well, and is a very solid putter. Most importantly, Furyk can grind as well as anyone in the world. That is a recipe for success this week.
Dave Koster
Phil Mickelson, -8 (272). He hit the ball really well off the tee last week… until the last couple holes of course. If he can find that groove with the driver, he’ll be hard to beat. I just hope he doesn’t “prepare” for this tournament as much as the others and start over thinking his gameplan. Just go out there and play Phil, you’ll be fine.
Alan Olson
Padraig Harrington, -5 (275). Harrington will add the Wannamaker Trophy to his mantle. Right between the two claret jugs.
George Promenschenkel
Retief Goosen, -2 (278). Goosen will win his third major largely by outlasting his rivals on the greens. His two U.S. Open wins have come on difficult putting setups that got the best of the field. While the setup for the PGA Championship won’t be as extreme as we see at U.S. Open venues, it will still prove extremely challenging to the players.
Danny Ottmann
Phil Mickelson, -3 (277). I beat up on Phil a little in my British Open picks, deservedly so, but I feel he may have it going somewhat in the right direction. Like I said above, Oakland Hills has a tendency to have the big-name golfers do well. With Tiger out of the field, there is nobody bigger here than Phil Mickelson. He will have to hit the driver straighter than he has all year, however.
Other Top Contenders
Erik J. Barzeski
Jim Furyk will contend if he can putt well. Lee Westwood is on a roll of late and could do well. It’s tough to pick against Kenny Perry, but I hope for almost spiteful reasons that he doesn’t win or contend.
Donald MacKenzie
Jim Furyk also fits the mold of a possible winner this week. If rain does douse the course, I could see a bomber like Adam Scott or Geoff Ogilvy coming out on top. Scott makes particular sense, given the PGA Championship’s reputation for hatching first-time major winners.
Cody Thrasher
Lee Westwood is the first name that comes to mind. He is hitting the ball as well as anyone in the world, and his putting has been solid as of late. If he can manage Oakland Hills’ greens in any form or fashion, he could win his first major. I’ll throw Sergio Garcia’s name in the hat as well. I’ve seen a lot of people talk about him being a disappointment this week, but he always seems to put himself in the mix. He is a great ball striker and will put himself in the correct positions on the greens. As always, it will come down to his putting. It has been improved a little lately, but it will need to be near perfect this week. Still, he will finish on the first page of the leaderboard at the very least.
Dave Koster
If Vijay Singh can correct his putting issues from last week and continue to hit the ball like he did, I don’t think anyone can beat him. The problem is that all those 8 footers will look like 15 footers at Oakland hills. I also like Kenny Perry as well. It would be a bit of redemption for him to win a major after skipping the last two and taking so much flak for it.
Alan Olson
Retief Goosen, Anthony Kim, Kenny Perry, and Vijay Singh.
George Promenschenkel
I really wanted to write Luke Donald down as a match for this course. In fact, I did and then realized that his wrist is still bad, and he’s looking at surgery instead of the PGA Championship. The next two names at the top of the heap for me are Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker. Neither has had a good year thus far, but they are both good “tight course” players and putt well. I keep waiting for the real Jim Furyk to show up in 2008. If not this week, then when? And Stricker is showing signs of his 2007 form, so perhaps he’s turned the corner. Can he be “Comeback Player of the Year” a third straight time? Anthony Kim’s name may well be high on the leaderboard on Friday or Saturday, but I don’t think he has the experience (quite yet) to contend with those Oakland Hills greens for four rounds.
Danny Ottmann
Vijay Singh is coming off an impressive win last week and is driving the ball very well which is a premium at Oakland Hills. Also, look for some of the young guys like Anthony Kim, Hunter Mahan, and Adam Scott to possibly have a “major” breakthrough..
Dark-Horse Winner
Erik J. Barzeski
Repeat after me: Davis Love III. Yeah, so I’m being a bit crazy this go-’round, but that’s what happens when Tiger is playing more Tiger Woods PGA Tour ’09 on his PS3 or Xbox 360 than playing actual golf.
Donald MacKenzie
Steve Stricker. He knows how to putt midwestern greens, and he knows how to manage his game on the toughest courses. If scores are high, Stricker has a good shot.
Cody Thrasher
Billy Mayfair. It said dark horse didn’t it? Mayfair is very quietly having a solid season (33rd in FedEx Cup standings). On top of that, he is eighth in driving accuracy and greens in regulation percentage. His putting numbers aren’t very good, but if he is two-putting for par all day, that will be enough to make some noise. He is also coming off a second-place finish at the RBC Canadian Open.
Dave Koster
Can you really consider Anthony Kim a dark horse after the year he’s had? Maybe because he’s so young, but the kid has so much talent and doesn’t seem fazed by anything. I’d also like to pick Davis Love III here as well since he was my pick for the U.S. Open and that got him a couple good rounds out of the gate. Until he can finish it off during a regular stop on the tour, it’s hard to imagine him doing it in a major.
Alan Olson
David Toms.
George Promenschenkel
Daniel Chopra has length and solid putting. If he can keep the ball in play off the tee when it matters, he could join a long list of one-time major winners who got theirs at the PGA Championship.
Danny Ottmann
Stewart Cink. He has quietly played well the entire year. I can see him surprise a few people by hanging around for the first few days, then making a charge on Sunday afternoon.
Biggest Disappointment
Erik J. Barzeski
Tough to say who is a bigger disappointment, but I think Phil’s abysmal year (by his standards) – as well as his major drought – will continue this week.
Donald MacKenzie
Tiger-chasers Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia and Ernie Els. Sergio and Ernie will have their putting woes put on prominent display at Oakland Hills, while Phil will have to put up with all the questions about his Ryder Cup implosion of 2004. If he’s on his game, Phil is perfect for Oakland Hills. But I can easily see him being a non-factor, as he was at Torrey Pines.
Cody Thrasher
Phil Mickelson. Lefty is the highest-ranked golfer in the field, and anything but a win will be a disappointment. At first, I thought he might miss the cut. After thinking it over and seeing his play last week, however, he will have a decent week at Oakland Hills. A “decent” week won’t be enough to make him or his fans happy though.
Dave Koster
Sergio Garcia. He’ll be firing up the jet on Friday afternoon. For some reason, I don’t see him or any of the other big-name European players finishing well here. Unfortunately, that might fire them up for The Ryder Cup.
Alan Olson
Phil Mickelson. Again.
George Promenschenkel
Phil Mickelson again fails to come though in the post-Winged Foot era. He’s the favorite with gamblers in Vegas this week. But with his often balky putter and all-too-common wild tee shots, I think Phil may well have trouble making the cut, let alone getting into contention.
Danny Ottmann
Sergio Garcia will miss the cut. Poor Sergio, but I see no heroics this week. He is so hit-or-miss, and he will miss this week.
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While I like Erik’s pick of Boo Weekley, I find the comment about him being “too dumb to notice how difficult the darn course is” in poor taste.
While Erik may have met him, I have not. However, even if I had met him and shared Erik’s opinion, I would never call a respected golfer “dumb” in a public forum like this.
Boo Weekley is a great golfer and gives a very entertaining interview. He is good for the game.
It’s simply a play on the persona that Boo cultivates for himself. He’s called himself “too dumb” or “dumb” or “just a stupid redneck” or whatever several times, so I’m essentially quoting Boo on himself.
Let’s lighten up – I don’t think Boo would take any offense.
I like Phil to be in the hunt but am not sure he can finish it off on Sunday. Vijay’s putter will likely keep him out of the winner’s circle. Lee Westwood has been playing well and could be a factor. Kenny Perry may have peaked too early in the season. And Hunter Mahan? The less said the better. Cut.