Pinehurst Predictions

Thrash Talk is back after a few weeks off, and it’s right in time for U.S. Open week! The Masters is a great tournament, quite possibly the best. If I was a professional golfer, however, the U.S. Open would be the tournament I would want to win the most. I am an American, and the U.S. Open is my national championship. The top players in the world are at Pinehurst #2 preparing for Thursday’s opening round, and the favorites this year are very clear-cut, but I’m going to make a few bold predictions this week.

Like I mentioned already, the U.S. Open is being played at Pinehurst #2 this week. When it was played at Pinehurst in 1999, a lot of big names found themselves in contention on the final day. Phil Mickelson finished second behind Payne Stewart and actually held the lead after the 15th hole on Sunday. Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh finished in a tie for third in 1999 at Pinehurst. So the long drivers should be the favorites to win this week right? Not so fast.

The hype all year long on the PGA Tour has been about the “Big Four.” Well, I see it as the “Big Five,” but that’s neither here nor there. This week, however, is going to be about the “Second Five” as I will be calling them. That is right, my focus will be on Sergio Garcia, Chris DiMarco, Adam Scott, David Toms, and Kenny Perry. As a whole, these five will steal the show at Pinehurst, and one of these players will walk away as the winner on Father’s Day. Mark my word for it, these five guys will grit it out this week at Pinehurst and be standing tall in the end.

Don’t get me wrong, the “Big Five” have played awesome so far this year. But this week will be a long one for them when it’s all said and done. Singh, Woods, Ernie Els, and Mickelson have all won three golf tournaments so far in 2005, whether it be on the PGA Tour or European Tour. Retief Goosen hasn’t won yet this year, but he has a number of great finishes in big tournaments.

The “Big Five” are all long hitters compared to most of the other PGA Tour golfers. They have adopted the attitude over the last couple years to hit it long off the tee no matter where it ends up. Then, they will have a short iron into the green. I have a newsflash for them heading into the U.S. Open. That isn’t going to work this week boys! Pinehurst has some of the most difficult greens out of all the U.S. Open-style courses. They are very well known for their turtle-back shape and approach shots have to be dead-on to have a good shot at snuggling in close to the pin. Just ask John Daly how unforgiving they can be at times.

The weather in 1999 for the U.S. Open helped make the course a little easier in my opinion. I know the winning score was only -1, but I feel it could have been a lot worse if the conditions were a little different. It was pretty wet and mildly foggy that week. This may sound like it would make the course tougher, but I think the opposite of the situation. I think it made the greens receptive enough for the big hitters to get away with putting the ball in the rough every once in awhile. The wet rough would normally be tougher to hit out of, but the three-inch rough at Pinehurst isn’t nearly as penalizing as some other U.S. Open venues. The thick stuff will once again be about three inches this week, but it may be even thicker than it was in 1999.

I think these wet conditions also made it advantageous to be long off the tee. The middle-of-the-road hitters off the tee couldn’t get near the distance the big hitters could and found themselves behind the eight-ball all week long. I think the dry conditions this week (I hope anyway) will allow for guys like DiMarco and Toms to hit it farther off the tee and display their solid iron-play. Sergio, Adam Scott, and Kenny Perry are definitely not short off the tee by any means, but all three have been hitting the ball very straight as of late.

It is going to take a little extra grit to win the U.S. Open as it does with any major. I know the “Second Five” has that grit, and every one of them have been playing good golf in 2005. Sergio is coming off a win at the Booz Allen Classic this past weekend, so he will definitely be confident this week. Adam Scott finished in a tie for second behind Sergio and won the Johnnie Walker Classic a couple months ago. DiMarco contended at The Masters and has several other top five finishes in 2005. Toms won the Match Play Championship earlier in the year, then went into a slump, but has recently bounced back and regained his form. Finally, Kenny Perry already has two victories in 2005, including a blowout at Colonial.

I’m sure one or two of these guys will miss the cut this weekend or at least not contend. The chances are high that will happen. There are always big names that miss the cut in major championships. One or two of them will finish in the top five, and as I mentioned earlier, the winner will come from the “Second Five.” My personal pick is Adam Scott. He flies under the radar and is often overlooked by guys like Sergio Garcia and the big dogs on the PGA Tour. He won The Players Championship last year, so he can take the pressure-packed situations. The other guy out of the group that will definitely contend and maybe even win is Chris DiMarco. He has more grit than any other player on the PGA Tour in my opinion, and he could definitely do one better than his runner-up finish at The Masters earlier in the year.

Final Thought
Will all five of the “Big Five” play bad this week? No, that won’t happen. A couple of them will definitely be in contention, and it would be silly not to think that. They are far too talented to roll over and die, especially having so much success at Pinehurst in 1999. I do think at least two of them will miss the cut. I had picked Ernie Els before the year started to win the U.S. Open, but after seeing how he crumbled at the Booz Allen Classic on the back nine, I changed my mind. He has changed too many things lately to get my vote, but I think he may hang around this week.

As for Tiger, he will have a bad round one of the first two days and will have to scramble to make the cut. For the rest of the week, he will be trying to play catch up only to find himself in the middle of the pack when it’s all said and done. I think Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen will both miss the cut. Phil Mickelson will finish the highest out of the five. He will be on an emotional high from finishing runner-up in 1999, but in the end, he will crumble on the weekend.

Am I crazy for believing this? That is very possible, as I have been known to be wrong before. I think the conditions will provide a very tough setup as usual this week, and the winning score will not be in red figures. The winner will be even par or worse in my opinion in what will be one of the most grueling U.S. Opens in recent memory (yes, even more grueling than last year’s unfair greens at Shinnecock).

So that’s it, the U.S. Open will be awesome! Just remember what you read at The SandTrap though. The “Big Five” will get the spotlight, but the “Second Five” will get the prize money and the victory. Feel free to add your own predictions by either commenting below or discussing it in our forum. I would love to see who everyone else is picking to win this week at Pinehurst. Thanks for reading and don’t do any traveling this weekend. Stay at home and enjoy the best tournament in golf.

Photo Credit: © Amy Sancetta, AP.