This week brings us the final major championship of the 2007 golf season, and the Sand Trap staff is once again poised to deliver you the winner… and a few other things. Okay, so we’re oh-for-three on calling the majors so far this year (thank you, Tiger and Phil), but I have a good feeling about this one. After all, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
Read on to hear our thoughts, and feel free to add your own!
Thoughts on the Course
Erik J. Barzeski
I think the course will play fair, but my biggest concern this week is the scoring record in a major. The 63 shot by Johnny Miller and a few others will be in danger because the greens will be kept watered in the sweltering heat simply out of fear that they’ll go belly up otherwise. On another note, I’m glad the slopes on the ninth and eighteenth greens were tamed to allow them to be cut at the same speed as the rest of the greens. Finally, the heat will play a factor, eliminating all but the über-fit golfers.
Jack Waddell
From all that I’ve read, it sounds like Southern Hills will be in great shape for the championship. And that’s good because I think the PGA’s course setup people do by far the best job of setting up the course for a major. I don’t think we’ll see the ridiculous carnage of a U.S. Open, the quirkiness of a British Open or the debacle that has become Augusta National. Just real golf on a course most players can relate to.
Alan Olson
There must be something about Southern Hills as it has been the site for three U.S. Opens and four PGA Championships. The sloping greens will make putting an adventure and the heat of Tulsa in August will add some challenges to the field as well. The PGA isn’t quite as obsessed with protecting par as the USGA is so hopefully we’ll see a course that is set up for some birdie and eagle opportunities.
Donald MacKenzie
Southern Hills is an old school design by Perry Maxwell, who carved several notable courses out of the Oklahoma terrain. It has plenty of doglegs that will cause players to keep the driver in the bag for several holes each round, and the greens can be very tricky. The ninth and eighteenth greens have been redesigned because they were too severe for the ultra-short, high-Stimp manner in which putting surfaces are mown these days. Southern Hills has hosted its share of PGA Championships and U.S. Opens, but it isn’t a player favorite. It’s more of a course to survive than enjoy, and patience is the key.
Dave Koster
Southern Hills will be hosting its seventh major. I don’t know much about the course but I was surprised to see four par fours less than 400 yards. I can’t remember the last major that had that many. Sure, there’s a 650-yard par five, but I think the course will yield plenty of birdies.
George Promenschenkel
I’m trying to come up with something about Southern Hills that is not obvious to everyone who saw the 2001. Let’s see, did anyone think the greens were a little extreme last time around? Oh yeah, everyone did. I suspect that the greens will be every bit as fast as in 2001, but the course makeover will keep the ninth and eighteenth greens much more reasonable. I mean, when three-quarters of a green is “false front,” that’s a tad extreme.
JP Bouffard
Some of the holes at Southern Hills played “quirky” in the 2001 U.S. Open, but if you look at the final leaderboard there was a nice balance of both power players and control players. The course has been extensively altered since then, adding a couple of hundred yards in length, sub-surface drainage systems in the greens, some re-contouring, and will probably have less penal rough and wider landing areas than in 2001. These changes may improve the lot of the bomber a little, but I think that on classic style designs like this Perry Maxwell gem, patient, accurate, players usually thrive.
Winner and Score
Erik J. Barzeski
Tiger Woods, 271 (-9). The course has a lot of doglegs which will take driver out of the hands of many of the world’s best players. Who has won several majors in the past few years hitting a lot of fairway woods and irons off the tees to get into position for his approach shots? Oh yes, that would be some kid named Eldrick. His final-round 65 at Firestone pushed it over the edge for me: he’s rounded into form. If he maintains it all week, he wins, no question. Nobody’s beat Tiger when Tiger has his A game yet (though kudos to Bob May for coming close).
Jack Waddell
Tiger Woods, 272 (-8). Had not the old Tiger emerged at the WGC and had Jim Furyk not hurt his back, I might have picked differently. But it is what it is and to pick anyone else is wishful thinking. Tiger is on a roll and we should sit back and enjoy it.
Alan Olson
Tiger Woods, 272 (-8). Last weeks’s victory was a warm-up of things to come. Driver still gets him into trouble but he can recover like no one else. Nobody challenged him last week and no one will challenge him at Southern Hills either.
Donald MacKenzie
Tiger Woods, 270 (-10). Yes, picking Tiger is boring. And yes, he hasn’t gotten it done at the majors this year. But that gives the new Daddy extra motivation. If Tiger keeps driver in the bag, hits fairways and greens and putts OK, he should be able to stride past the field. If he’s wild off the tee or cold on the greens, all bets are off. But Southern Hills is an endurance test that Tiger’s mental and physical strength are made for.
Dave Koster
Tiger Woods, 272 (-8). I think Tiger will wish he could take a few shots off the eight-shot victory last week and use them for the PGA, but I don’t think he’ll need them. A 7,132-yard par-70 isn’t too long, but all it means is that Tiger will hit more fairway woods and stinger 2-irons off the tee.
George Promenschenkel
Tiger Woods, 274 (-6). It’s getting old, I know, but how can you not pick Tiger? OK, Southern Hills may not set up perfectly for him, but if he’s driving it relatively straight he can win anywhere. The short game should be key, with the run-off areas and fast, fast greens. That could play to Tiger’s advantage. Plus, he hasn’t won a major this year, and he hasn’t been shut out very often.
JP Bouffard
Ernie Els, 270 (-10). We can’t all pick Tiger, so I’m taking a chance on the Big Easy. Ernie has obviously fallen off his championship form of the early and mid-1990s, and picking him is even more suspect given the fact that he was nowhere to be seen at the 2001 Open. But his stats are pretty good this year, and he has played extremely well on the medium length, shotmaker-type courses (Harbour Town, Riviera). His performance at Carnoustie suggests his nerves are still good, and that he still has the desire. He also won his first major in sauna-like conditions at Oakmont, so we know he can take the heat. I think he breaks through this week and captures his first PGA.
Dark-Horse Winner
Erik J. Barzeski
Hunter Mahan is going to be the obvious pick. He’s played well lately, is used to golf in Oklahoma, and all that jazz. If you want to go with a real dark horses, look to Anthony Kim. If the kid can keep his bogeys in check, he’ll make plenty of birdies this week.
Jack Waddell
Tim Clark, at 35 in the world rankings, is my pick. He’s great on tough courses, contended at the Masters, played well at the WGC, and may just sneak in should Tiger hiccup.
Alan Olson
Hunter Mahan. Has played really well as of late and it’s a bit of homecoming as he attended Oklahoma State.
Donald MacKenzie
Hunter Mahan. He’s won on tour this year, and he won a Big 12 Championship at Southern Hills. He was briefly in the mix at the British Open, and he’s got a lot of game. The PGA Championship has been the first major win for a lot of players, and Mahan could fit that mold.
Dave Koster
The PGA has been the home for first time major winners. Despite a bum shoulder, Chris DiMarco has been playing well recently. I think a former Florida Gator could also survive the heat as well.
George Promenschenkel
Big Ben Curtis showed a little something at the Open Championship, and Southern Hills should play fast and firm. Heck. If you squint your eyes just right, you might even block out those trees and make it look like a links course (except for the green grass, of course).
JP Bouffard
If I can pick anyone, it’s gotta be Verplank. This guy is a fantastic player, near the top in many statistical categories for years, and he never seems to have a bad year since he got over all of his injuries. He’s an Oklahoma college product, too, and we know from Mark Brooks’ 2001 performance that a short- to medium-length hitter can score well at Southern Hills. But Verplank is 24th in the world, not exactly a dark horse. Going a bit lower in the world rankings, I’d choose Stephen Ames. Showed he can go low on a difficult course with his win at Sawgrass last year.
Biggest Disappointment
Erik J. Barzeski
Collectively, I’m going with the rest of the top golfers in the world. Phil Mickelson hasn’t made a cut in the past two majors. Ernie Els contended at the Open but isn’t going to manage much this year. Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Adam Scott, and even Padraig Harrington are going to fail to contend much this week.
Jack Waddell
Adam Scott is starting to seriously disappointment me week after week and not just in this upcoming major. With his skills he just comes across to me as the ultimate underachiever on any of the pro tours. It doesn’t help he’s a lousy putter. But I can’t think of a fifth-ranked player I would think less likely to win this event.
Alan Olson
Phil Mickelson won’t be around for the weekend. It’s usually around this time of year where Phil checks out.
Donald MacKenzie
The biggest names on tour have had a disappointing year in the majors, and that run could be extended this week. Tiger, Phil, Furyk, Vijay, Ernie, Sergio, etc. If a dark-horse winner does emerge, that will leave us with one of the most anonymous slates of major winners in many years. Forced to play a tough course in sweltering conditions, I can see some of the big names mailing it in at Southern Hills (especially Phil and Sergio).
Dave Koster
Davis Love III. I’m done with him. He won’t make the cut and will probably put up a 78+ number one of the days. Who knows where his game has gone?
George Promenschenkel
Mickelson misses the cut in another major.
JP Bouffard
Tiger Woods sniffs the lead but can’t close the deal, ending 2007 shut out in the majors. If he doesn’t win, it’s a disappointment, right? I may end up looking pretty dumb Monday morning judging by what he did at Firestone Sunday, but Tiger has had an odd year, hitting some very strange shots (e.g., tee shot at #1, Carnoustie Friday, a couple of chips at Oakmont) and lacking the magical touch with the putter that we saw at his absolute peak. For him to win five or six times in a season but be shut out in the majors would indeed be a disappointment.
Largest Surprise
Erik J. Barzeski
The course will yield a lot of birdies. The soft conditions that will be necessary due to the heat will make Maxwell’s greens receptive and players will be on the attack. Sure, you’ll still be able to get into trouble firing at every flag, but the course will yield a lot of birdies and bogeys to even things out. Someone’s 78 will be offset by someone’s 63… or better.
Jack Waddell
Andres Romero shows the resiliency of youth and bounces back from a tough week at the WGC to once again contend down the stretch.
Alan Olson
I will be rooting my hometown boy, PGA Club Professional Bill Amundsen who not only makes the cut but also finishes in the Top 25. Go Bill!
Donald MacKenzie
I look for a strong European presence on the leaderboard. Padraig Harrington’s win at the British Open has energized the rest of his Euro contemporaries, and they won’t complain about the wilting heat in Tulsa as much as the pampered U.S. players. I could see Niclas Fasth being in the mix late in the final round.
Dave Koster
Some player (or caddie) is going to be carted off the course due to exhaustion. With highs every day in the 100’s, this could be an ugly surprise. As for on the course surprises, don’t surprise if the former Oklahoma State Cowboy Verplank keeps the title from crossing state lines.
George Promenschenkel
Woody Austin decides not to bother with the trip to Tulsa. All right, seriously? Steve Flesch finishes in the top 10 following his win at the Reno-Tahoe Open.
JP Bouffard
Retief Goosen, Mark Brooks, and Stewart Cink all four-putt the 18th to miss a playoff with the Big Easy. OK, enough nonsense. Sergio shakes off the let-down of Carnoustie and finishes in the top five. He’s got the length to play the course comfortably without ever using a driver, and just may surprise everyone with a quick rebound.
Your Turn
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