If you love a good test of golf, then without question you love watching the U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club. The members love to tell anyone who’ll listen that they slow the greens down when the pros show up. They love to test themselves and watch the professionals test themselves as well.
This season brings the three big names in golf – Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Rory McIlroy – all playing well and primed to contend on the weekend. Expectations could not be higher for a young gun showdown.
With all these exciting expectations lets see what the staff expects for this year’s event.
1. Who do you expect to win this week, why are you picking them and what score gets it done?
Michael C. Hepp
The hot pick has to be one of the aforementioned big three, and it is really hard not to pick Jason Day, but I am going with last years runner up Dustin Johnson. I think he has been playing well and guys who are good ballstrikers do well at Oakmont. Yes being great putter has helped guys like Loren Roberts (who didn’t actually win but was in a playoff) but a look at past champions is a list of excellent ballstrikers. The winner is likely to be over par, I am going to guess +3, but it could be as high as +7.
George Promenschenkel
Putting and short game will be vital to the winning effort. To me, it’s a really tough pick between Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. I think it may come down to Spieth’s talent (and luck?) on 10-20 foot putts that will put him atop the field and complete the bounce back from the Masters at one-under 279 (though it may have to rain a lot to produce that).
Scott Curry
I am going with Jason Day because of the importance of keeping the ball in the fairway. His driver accuracy off the tee is not the best, but Day can hit his 3W a long, long way. His some of his more recent wins, he has opted using the 3W off the tee and still managed 300+ yard drives. He even hit a 2 iron 258! This Open puts a huge importance to good tee shots. The driver doesn’t necessarily need to be used. His towering approach shots will help too if the greens dry out and get difficult to hold.
Tristan Hilton
I’m picking Speith to win. He seems to have rebounded nicely since Augusta and he has the ability to put it together when it matters the most. I say the winning score is going to be even par.
Jamieson Weiss
2014 was my year of Fowler. 2015 was owned by Spieth. 2016 belongs to Jason Day. He’s the best player on the planet, and it’s time he won a U.S. Open. And I’m taking him at even par because boy would that be fun.
Bill Chao
Everyone is probably going to go with one of the “Big Three” to win at Oakmont, and while they are definitely the favorites, I’m going with Louis Oosthuizen. He’s one of the best ballstrikers on tour even if he hasn’t really played all that well this year. His putting is downright terrible this year, but he has shown in the past that he can get hot with the flat-stick (Chamber’s Bay, for instance) and be a contender. I’ll take Shrek to win at +2.
Erik J. Barzeski
My predictions always stink. And I’m okay with that, because, heck, if they didn’t, I would be gambling and attempting to mislead by posting erroneous picks here. Or maybe that’s what I’m doing after all… I think Tony Finau wins it. You don’t need to be a very good putter to get around Oakmont, right? Angel Cabrera, anyone?
And no, I’m not serious. Which of course means that Tony Finau will both win by ten and miss the cut. Somehow.
2. One of the favorites for best players to not yet have won a major, Dustin Johnson, experienced extreme heartbreak last year at Chamber’s Bay. How do you see him performing this year after that near miss?
Michael C. Hepp
Well, I did pick him to win but there is certainly some seedling of doubt because after last years event he quickly got himself into contention at the British Open and played like a hacker on the weekend. So there is some worry that he may have a mental block when it comes to the majors. I am hopeful he’s healed and ready to get his major.
George Promenschenkel
He’ll be top 10 or close simply on the strength of his tee-to-green game. He might just be the current best in the game with the 13 lofted clubs, but the flat stick is not his friend. I don’t see that changing at Oakmont.
Scott Curry
Dustin has the length to have a shot, but he has had trouble putting four good rounds together. This inconsistency has to drop his confidence a bit.
Tristan Hilton
He’ll be close on Sunday, maybe even in the final grouping, however I don’t see him winning one. I think he’ll end up with a major sooner rather than later, but I’m not sure that the US Open is going to be one he wins.
Jamieson Weiss
I like DJ a lot this week. He’s got the length for the course and the swing speed to hack it out of the rough. I’ll go with a top 10 finish for Dustin.
Bill Chao
I pretty much pick DJ to win pretty much every major and he fell short each time. Yes, his putting woes are well documented, but he just seems to have problems on Major Championship Sundays. He is otherwise a solid contender at each of the four majors, but I don’t think Oakmont is really suited to his game. He makes the cut, but doesn’t contend.
Erik J. Barzeski
I think Dustin is going to have an interesting week. He’ll do okay if he hits a lot of irons and makes a few more putts than normal, and he’ll fail to contend if he has a bad putting week or pulls out an air-filled club too frequently.
3. The U.S. Open usually offers an unsung hero to play his way into contention. Who do you expect that to be this week?
Michael C. Hepp
He is not really unsung but mostly out of the spotlight this year and would love to play well at Oakmont, Jim Furyk. He was right there the last time the U.S. Open was played at Oakmont and I know he would love a win here.
George Promenschenkel
Andrew Johnston, aka “Beef,” will be popular with the fans, and he could ride that and his good play on the Euro Tour this season into a leaderboard appearance.
Scott Curry
Brooks Koepka has shown good form but is under the media radar. I expect him to content this week.
Tristan Hilton
These questions are always so hard to answer. While he hasn’t made the cut in a U.S. Open before, somebody like Danny Lee I think could surprise a lot of people.
Jamieson Weiss
My unsung contender for the week is Tony Finau. He’s got the length off the tee and the ballstriking ability to hack it anywhere, and he’s already got a win this year. Put him down for a spot among the leaders.
Bill Chao
Hold on a second while I ask my magic 8-ball… Matteo Manassero. You heard it here first, folks.
Erik J. Barzeski
Does Phil Mickelson count as an unsung hero? I’m taking him.
4. After his Masters collapse, Jordan Spieth got into the winner’s circle again, but is he going to be able to shake off the twelfth hole disaster and win back-to-back U.S. Open titles?
Michael C. Hepp
I am not high on Jordan this week. I feel he will struggle in the rough and his driver is not as accurate as he need to be to win. He is such a competitor that he will probably be in the mix but no win for him this week.
George Promenschenkel
Since I picked him, I’m going with yes. Actually, I think next year’s Masters might bring up the bad memories, but Oakmont offers an entirely different challenge. I think he’ll be fine.
Scott Curry
I think it will be tough. Jordan is going to have to use driver more than some of the other longer players like Day and McIlroy. His driver has been his weakness lately. I expect him to content because he has been good with approach shots and short game. But errant tee shots will be killer at Oakmont.
Tristan Hilton
Without question he can shake it. Let’s not forget that Rory had a melt down at the Masters in 2011 only to dominate the US Open the same year. I see no reason why Jordan can’t do the same.
Jamieson Weiss
Since his collapse at Augusta, all Spieth has done is prove to us just how unbeatable he is when his game is on. No one else has that combination of ballstriking and short game prowess, save maybe Jason Day. I expect a good week out of Spieth, but I think the length and thick rough will be his undoing.
Bill Chao
Jordan is a proven winner. It’s hard to say that the 12th hole fiasco didn’t affect him at the Masters, but he’s probably not carrying that burden with him now or I doubt he’d be on tour. I expect him to contend and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won.
Erik J. Barzeski
No. Jordan does not drive the ball well enough to contend at the U.S. Open at Oakmont. Which probably means he finishes T3.
5. Oakmont has been host to some fantastic U.S. Opens. Tell us which holes you expect to play a big role in the championship and why?
Michael C. Hepp
The 1995 U.S. Open is my favorite major that I can remember watching. The key holes that year were the first hole, the seventeenth and the last. I expect all three to play a pivotal role in who wins this year. The USGA also moves up the tees on seventeen and will likely make it drivable for extra flavor.
George Promenschenkel
Number one is a brute of a par four, and it will likely set the mood for a great many rounds. But #17 will figure larger on TV over the weekend. The penultimate hole will offer a last shot at birdie or eagle (and possibly disaster), and that should figure large down the stretch as nerves and destiny collide.
Scott Curry
One is a hard hole. Players need the mindset that a bogey is not necessarily bad to start out. But if they let it get them down, they are in for a rough round.
Three is the first “church pew” bunker hole and the #1 handicap hole. Errant drives will suffer!
Eight is a very long par 3, 288 yards. There was a lot of grumbling at Merion about their long par 3. I expect this one to hurt a few players.
Jamieson Weiss
I’m hoping for a high-scoring event, with a close finish. I think it’ll come right down to the 18th hole and that massive green.
Bill Chao
Oakmont runs players through the gauntlet right out of the gate and there will be a lot of challenges all over the course, but I think the two holes that will have the most impact on the tournament is #17 and #18. #17 because it typically sets up as a good risk vs. reward hole and you will see players who are chasing the leader going for it, and #18 because it is a brutal hole that is easily bogeyed and could have a significant impact on players who are in contention.
Erik J. Barzeski
9 through 12 are important. 9, 10, and even 11 are not easy holes. 12 could play a pivotal role, even though it’s largely unreachable for most golfers (some can and will hit it).
Bonus Question: What is your favorite U.S. Open moment?
Michael C. Hepp
As mentioned in the last question the 1995 U.S. Open was my favorite major. I was disappointed when Ernie won because I was really pulling for Loren Roberts. Loren was from near my hometown and often played in charity golf tournaments and I was really rooting for him. Ernie got the lucky break on the first hole and they even had to go more than the extra eighteen to decide the winner.
George Promenschenkel
Tiger Woods’ going head-to-head, and on one leg, against Rocco Mediate in 2008 was spellbinding theater. Personally, I was pulling for Rocco, but in the end it was satisfying to see Tiger do the improbable yet one more time (and as it has turned out, likely for his last major win).
Scott Curry
I would say G-Mac winning at Pebble Beach and having his Dad their. He played so steady on a really tough course in tough conditions.
Jamieson Weiss
For me, the 2008 U.S. Open will always tower over the rest. I’ll never forget the feeling of momentum that came over the third round as Tiger began pouring putts (and chips) in from pretty much everywhere.
Erik J. Barzeski
Honestly? Watching Paula Creamer put it away in 2010 at the same course hosting the men this year. A real gut-check win for her.
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