Masters Preview: Four-Shadowing the Winner

For many people, the opening day of baseball season marks the beginning of spring. But for people who play golf, The Masters Tournament is the truest indication that even Old Man Winter is ready to trade his snow shovel for a sand wedge. As the world’s top golfers not named Annika spring into action at Augusta National, who will don the green jacket this year? Here’s your guide on what to expect from the 2005 Masters.

The Course
Augusta National Golf Club has always been a sort of masterpiece-in-progress ever since Dr. Alister Mackenzie and Bobby Jones finished their layout over an old tree nursery. The nines were reversed after the first year (1933) the event was held under the Augusta National Invitational Tournament moniker (1939 was the first time it was referred to as “The Masters Tournament”). In 1981, the grass on the putting surfaces was changed from Bermuda to a bentgrass-linoleum hybrid. Countless other minor changes have been made. Since the club is so secretive, many players don’t even notice some of the subtle changes from year to year, and many others believe they see changes where none have been made.

But there’s nothing subtle about what’s been done at Augusta over the last three years. More than 300 yards has been added to the layout, while mounds have been shaved, greens have been recontoured and trees have been planted. Shoot, the course that was wall-to-wall fairway even has rough now, though referring to the mild “second cut” as rough would probably make the greenkeeper at Carnoustie snort McEwan’s out his nose.

Last year was the first time in three years that the course wasn’t wet from spring storms, and Phil Mickelson won on a course that was built for distance off the tee and had fearsome greens Stimping somewhere between a bathtub and a sheet of ice. Provided that the monsoons that have plagued the Tour in recent weeks will subside, this could be the first real chance to see the latest iteration of Augusta National at its full power.

The Curse
If you’re a Roman emperor, you know to beware the Ides of March. If you’re a Masters participant, you know to beware the Par-3 Contest. No one has ever won the Contest – a 9-hole shootout over Augusta’s short course the day before the tournament proper – and the Masters in the same week. While Padraig Harrington surely prizes the crystal he’s earned for winning the event each of the last two years, don’t think he wouldn’t gladly trade them and a mint-condition Tiger Woods rookie card for a green jacket. My prediction for this year’s Par-3 Contest: Harrington doesn’t repeat, but the curse remains in effect.

The Comedy
Let’s hear it for the original Swedish Meatball, Jesper Parnevik. He might be the first person to forget to bring his golf clubs to a major championship. They weren’t stolen. They weren’t lost by a commercial airline. Despite a contingent of friends and family large enough to necessitate two private jets, Parnevik managed to flat-out forget his sticks. Fortunately, his pal Tiger Woods was able to swing by and fish Jesper’s tools out of his garage. Awfully nice of Tiger, right? Well, don’t forget that Tiger was introduced to his wife by Parnevik, who was employing the fair Elin as a nanny at the time. Do you think this makes Tiger and Jesper even? No way. You have seen Elin in a bikini, right? Then you know that Jesper has plenty of credit at the Bank of Tiger.

The Comeback
Jack Nicklaus returns for his 45th Masters under decidedly sad circumstances. He and his family suffered a tragic blow this winter, as Nicklaus’ 17-month-old grandson drowned in a hot tub. Shortly thereafter, Nicklaus announced that he was curtailing his already sparse playing schedule to spend more time with his family and that he would likely skip this year’s Masters. Fortunately for everyone, Jack has decided to tee it up at Augusta after all. This gives us all a chance to see the greatest player the modern game has seen go around Amen Corner again, and it also gives patrons at Augusta the chance to show their affection for Nicklaus and his family in person. If by any chance you’re attending the tournament, be sure to clap extra loud and long when Jack comes around. You can dry your eyes later.

The Contenders
OK, here’s your cheat sheet for this year’s field. You have Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, and Phil Mickelson. And then you have Everyone Else. Is it possible that someone will rise out of the Everyone Else heap to win? Oh sure. But I’d put my money on one of the other gents I mentioned.

You want a dark horse? I would have picked José Maria Olazabal before his self-destruction in the playoff at the BellSouth Classic on Monday. Even so, he has the perfect short game for Augusta, and his driving is almost passable this year. I also like Stuart Appleby, and I think David Toms might have a Masters title in him. But good luck, guys. You’ll need it.

The Big Four has practically owned Augusta National over the last eight years. The group has won the event in five of those years, including Tiger’s three titles. Mickelson, Singh, and Els haven’t finished outside the top seven on the leaderboard over the last three years. Only Els doesn’t have access to the Champion’s Locker Room, and his five-year stretch of top-6 finishes suggests that he’s due for a breakthrough.

Mickelson is the defending champ, and he already has three wins this year. But he seems to be running and gunning like Old Phil rather than practicing restraint like the New Phil who won last year’s green jacket. If Lefty can rediscover the joy of a well-placed 3-wood off the tee and the punched 8-iron from 135 yards, he could very well repeat.

As for Vijay, he’s won this year, too. But his confidence might have taken some body blows in recent close losses. More importantly, his work with the putter is growing more inconsistent. You can’t win the Masters with a balky putter, and Singh looks like he’s fighting the flatstick right now.

Tiger seems almost all the way back to full power after a couple years of swing changes and inconsistency. He is still throwing away some silly strokes, and losing his driver to the right more than he’d like. But no one can hit the shots that Tiger can hit, and no one has stared him down on Sunday in a major. Well, except Rich Beem, and I don’t see the Beemer making a charge around Amen Corner on Sunday. If it comes down to a match-play situation, Tiger wins his fourth Masters.

But I really think this is the year for someone Els to win the Masters. Ernie has had a quiet but strong start to the year, winning a couple of events overseas with dramatic finishes. He has the length, the accuracy, the feel and the demeanor to win at Augusta. And he’s enough of a fighter that I think he could go toe-to-toe with Tiger and win the 2005 Masters in a classic Sunday showdown. Here’s hoping Augusta has a green jacket big enough for the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Els somewhere in the clubhouse.

TV Schedule
All times Eastern Daylight Savings Time

Thursday, April 7
4:00 – 7:00 pm Live Coverage (USA Network)
8:00 – 11:00 pm Replay of the first day telecast (USA Network)
11:30 – 11:45 pm Highlights Show (CBS)

Friday, April 8
4:00 – 7:00 pm Live Coverage (USA Network)
8:00 – 11:00 pm Replay of the first day telecast (USA Network)
11:30 – 11:45 pm Highlights Show (CBS)

Saturday, April 9
3:30 – 7:00 pm Live Coverage (CBS)

Sunday, April 10
2:30 – 7:00 pm Live Coverage (CBS)

You have alerted your spouse and friends that you’d not be doing anything but sitting on the couch this weekend, right?

Photo Credits: © Everett.