It’s that time of year again. The Masters is right around the corner and it is never too early to start talking about the greatest golf tournament in the world.
This week in The Numbers Game, I’m going to share a few numbers from Augusta National, The Masters, and all that it entails. See if you can guess what these numbers mean: 7,445, 73.97, 74, and 32.13. The first two are easy. The second two may test your brain a little. Read on for the answers…
7,445
The easiest number on the list, 7,445 represents the length, in yards, of the “new” new Augusta National. The recent 155-yard addition places Augusta second only to Whistling Straits’ 7,514 yards for longest courses to host a major championship. For the longest time, the course played at 7,015 yards. Now you can’t even see most of those tees anymore. as they have been permanently removed. In 2002 it was lenghtened to 7,300 yards. The question is, did it have the effect Hootie and the Blowfi… er, old guard at Augusta thought it would. That leads to…
73.97
The scoring average for the last 4 years since the course changes in 2002. It seems a bit high. So how does it compare to the other four-year periods leading up to it? Pretty well:
Years Average 2002-2005 73.97 1998-2001 73.62 1994-1997 73.71
The lengthening really didn’t change the scoring much at all. What I’m curious to see is what this year’s changes brings to scoring. Not only has there been 155 yards added but a slew of other changes including the addition of more trees. The players haven’t been thrilled. The scoring might take their enthusiasm to an all-time low.
74
Since 1990, The winner shot this score in the first round three times: José Maria Olazabal in 1994, Mark O’Meara in 1998, and Tiger Woods last year. You would think that the winner would usually get off to a good start but the average first-round score is 1.6 shots worse than any other round. Here are the numbers.
Round Average 1 70.9 2 67.7 3 68.8 4 69.3
Only three winners in the past 16 years have shot under 70 in the opening round… but only three of those 16 shot above 70 in the next round. I guess if your favorite player or fantasy player has a less than stellar opening round, they can always bounce back like most of the previous Masters winners.
32.13
The average place in putting average (PA) for the Masters winners since 1990… you knew I was going there. One thing to note is that I extrapolated the finishing position for foreign players that did not play in enough rounds to officially place in any of the statistical categories. I had to at least see if our stat categories fell in the same fashion for the Masters as they did in other research. Without further delay:
Category Average Putting Average 32.13 Putts per Round 57.69 Greens in Regulation 65.19 Driving Distance 72.81 Driving Average 104.75
While greens in regulation has shown a stronger correlation to winning (it’s the “40” in the 40-30-20-10 Rule, there’s such a premium on putting at The Masters that a little switcheroo occurs. In fact, GIR is nearly eclipsed by DD. Of course if we remove Tiger’s stats from these categories, the driving distance average drops off, but even Mr. Woods couldn’t manage to push DD ahead of putting or GIR. DA once again finds itself at the bottom of the list.
Thoughts
The line of thinking to take away, to me anyway, is that putting is a crucial factor at Augusta. I can hear a few ‘Duh’ remarks, but all research before pointed towards GIR but Augusta is a bit different in that respect. The old boys at Augusta can’t make the greens any faster, so they are making it longer and tighter. Heck, if they wanted to speed the greens up there might not be any commentators left. You’d have a silent broadcast with no commercials… now there’s a thought. Too bad that wouldn’t happen to the NBC booth.
My feeling is that everyone will be talking about the length and changes to Augusta like I am now. What I hope to remember and not get lost in that talk is the fact that the premium skill is not off the tee or from the fairway or from the rough. It is on the majestic greens of Augusta that the champions are decided.
Nice research.
Unfortunately, many traditional golf stats are not the best measure. Driving distance is not measured on each and every hole, only select holes. Driving distance is not strokes. Putting is.
One has to take advantage of the extra distance to truly gain from the longer drive. Taking advantage means decent wedge play and good putting. Hitting a Par 5 in 2 versus 3. Therefore, distance is not a great individual statistic by itself or a great indicator for winning any golf tournament.
The question is to try to find out how meaningful the extra 25 yards of a drive is worth at Augusta or hitting a 5 iron to a green instead of a 6 iron.
Please note that this “worthy-ness” would vary depending on the hole and the conditions and the player.
You would need to have the same player hit a statistically significant number of balls to a green from 175, 150, and 125 to see if the 25 yards is worth anything from a scoring standpoint for that particular golfer. This would provide you with a “worthy-ness” quotient that each player could think through when making their decision on the tee.
Just my humble thoughts.