2008 U.S. Open Storylines

The world’s best will head to Torrey Pines (South Course) next week for this year’s U.S. Open, and there are numerous storylines worth talking about. Tiger Woods finished second at The Masters a couple months ago and then had knee surgery two days later. He hasn’t played a competitive round since, and it will be interesting to see how things go when he tees it up in the season’s second major.

Any time a U.S. Open is played, the golf course gets a fair amount of attention as well. Often times the course setup is borderline unfair for the golfers, but how tough will Torrey Pines play? Also, can Phil Mickelson finally recover from his collapse at the 2006 U.S. Open? Can an International win this event for the fifth year in a row? All these topics and more will be covered in this week’s Thrash Talk.

Course Difficulty
The United States Golf Association (USGA) is notorious for making golf courses too difficult. After hearing a few things this year, however, it seems they are easing up a little for the 2008 U.S. Open. They could easily make the primary rough six or seven inches and narrow the fairways, but they aren’t doing that this year. In fact, the thickest rough will probably be four or five inches, with the fairways ranging from 24 to 33 yards in width.

The course will be anywhere from 7,400-7,600 yards depending on pin locations, and par will be 71. The 18th hole was originally going to be a difficult par four, but the USGA decided to make it a risk-reward par five. This is another example of the USGA being softer than usual.

While the penalty for missing fairways won’t be as severe as it has been in the past, the greens are going to be running 13 or more on the stimpmeter. This will make it very difficult to stop balls out of the rough, and it will keep the attention of golfers when putting, particularly from above the hole.

It’s nice to see the USGA take it down a notch when setting up Torrey Pines, but things are still going to be very difficult for the field. Fans might see a few more scores under par than usual, but the winning score still won’t be much better than four or five under par. As long as the players don’t go too low (-10 or better), I’ll be happy. It’s nice to see the world’s best struggle to break par on occasion.

Is Tiger Still the Favorite?
Tiger Woods is usually the clear favorite in every golf tournament he plays. This week, however, things could be a little different because of his recent knee surgery. Like I mentioned above, the U.S. Open will be Woods’ first competitive tournament since the surgery. The world’s best has returned from the same operation and won at Torrey Pines before, but that wasn’t the same event or course setup. The U.S. Open is one of the most difficult tests each and every season, and this year will be no different.

It’s tough to pick against Tiger, but I’m going to do it next week. After listening to his tele-conference earlier this week, it’s obvious his knee isn’t at full strength. Whether or not it will be fully healed by next week is doubtable. Tiger played his first 18-hole round at Torrey Pines yesterday, but he didn’t walk the course. The course he plays next week won’t be easy.

Tiger won’t miss the cut like he did in 2006, and there is a good chance he will still finish in the top 10 or 20. However, there is no way he is still the favorite to win his third U.S. Open Championship. There are too many other talented golfers completely healthy and in full rhythm for Woods to overtake next week. It’s going to be a gutsy performance by the world’s best, but he will come up a little short this time around.

Can Lefty Contend Again?
If Tiger Woods isn’t the favorite to win next week, Phil Mickelson will be. Lefty has won a couple times in 2008; his latest coming two weeks ago at Colonial. His game has been a little inconsistent over the past few months, but he is still very capable of winning any tournament he plays. That being said, it’s no secret he has struggled in majors since his 72nd hole collapse at Winged Foot two years ago.

Since the 2006 U.S. Open, Mickelson hasn’t been in serious contention in a major. In his last seven majors, he has two missed cuts and three finishes outside the top 20. Lefty finished in a tie for fifth at this year’s Masters, but a third-round 75 took him out of serious contention heading into the final round.

A win at the 2006 U.S. Open would have given Mickelson three majors in a row. The collapse took the wind out of his sails, and while he has won a few tournaments here and there since, he hasn’t contended in any big ones. With Tiger still trying to regain full strength in his knee, Lefty’s chances are as good as any to get in contention and win at Torrey Pines. The course is in his hometown, and he has won there multiple times before. The crowd support will be deafening for Mickelson, and it will be a surprise if the hometown hero doesn’t finish in the top three or four.

Kenny Perry’s Absence
It’s tough to find a streakier golfer than Kenny Perry, and right now he is on one of his patented hot streaks. The Kentucky native has been in contention to win a few times in the past month. He didn’t close the deal at The Players or the AT&T Classic, but he won The Memorial this past weekend. The win was Perry’s third at Jack’s tournament, and it instantly made him the PGA Tour’s hottest golfer.

The way Perry is hitting the ball right now, he definitely would have been a favorite at this year’s U.S. Open. There is only one problem: he won’t be playing at Torrey Pines next week. Perry didn’t want to go through Monday Qualifiers, and he isn’t a big fan of the golf course either. The decision has rightly been questioned by many in the golf media.

Given Perry’s desire to play in this year’s Ryder Cup (which will be held in his home state), his decision to skip out on the U.S. Open is silly. There will be twice as many Ryder Cup points available, and it’s a great shot to lock up a spot on the team. Captain Paul Azinger said he wants winners on his team, and while Perry’s win at Muirfield Village was great, not playing in a major might leave a negative lasting impression in Azinger’s memory. It leaves a negative impression in my mind.

International Contingency
The last four U.S. Open winners have been from South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and Argentina, respectively. The International side has definitely had recent success at this event, and it could continue next week. There are a couple golfers ready to take the next step and win a major. The obvious choices are Adam Scott and K.J. Choi, but keep an eye on Stephen Ames and Andres Romero.

Stephen Ames has been playing very well the last month. In his last two PGA Tour starts, he finished fifth at The Players and fourth at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Those are two strong tournaments that require solid accuracy off the tee and short game. Both will help Ames at Torrey Pines as well, so don’t be surprised if he puts himself in contention on Sunday.

Andres Romero’s stats aren’t overly impressive, but his recent history in majors is quite the opposite. The young Argentine finished third at last year’s British Open, and he finished in a tie for eighth at this year’s Masters. On top of that, Romero won his first-career PGA Tour event earlier this season in New Orleans. Can the young gun make it two Argentine victories in a row at the U.S. Open? It wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

The Final Say
The U.S. Open is my favorite major and one of my favorite events in golf along with The Ryder Cup and The Players. I’ve mentioned it before, but it’s worth mentioning again. Any time Tiger returns from an injury or anything else, the media seems to work overtime. Next week will be no different. It will be good to have the world’s number one back in action, and it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Like the last three years, however, the 2008 U.S. Open winner could end up flying under the radar all week. It will be fun to see how Torrey Pines stands up to the field, and it will be fun to see everyone attempt to tackle the course. Many of them play the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines early in the season, but this won’t be your father’s Torrey Pines. Let the chess match officially begin.

It’s your turn to tell me what you think about next week’s U.S. Open. Who will finish higher, Tiger or Phil? Also, what are your thoughts on the course heading into the event? Finally, will the International success continue this year? If you have anything to add, please comment below or discuss it in the forum. Thanks for reading this week’s Thrash Talk!

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