The final major championship of the 2005 PGA season is here already! It seems like it was just yesterday when Tiger was narrowly defeating Chris DiMarco in a playoff to win his fourth green jacket. After that, it was on to the U.S. Open, where Michael Campbell gave us the major championship surprise of the year. Retief Goosen had an awful final-round collapse, and Campbell outlasted Tiger to win his first major. And just last month, Tiger struck again at the British Open. Mr. Woods worked his way around St. Andrews beautifully on his way to winning his second career grand slam.
Those three majors gave us many great memories along the way. Ryan Moore, an amateur at the time, finished in a tie for 13th at The Masters. At the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, Jason Gore became one of the most popular underdogs in recent memory. And at the British Open at St. Andrews, Colin Montgomerie came out of the shadows to contend once again. How is the PGA Championship going to hold up compared to the previous major championships of 2005?
The PGA Championship has been the site of many first-time major winners in recent years. Since 2001, there are three that fit in this category. David Toms outlasted Phil Mickelson in 2001, Rich Beem withstood Tiger’s roar in 2002, and Shaun Micheel shocked everyone in 2003. Let me be the first to tell you that there will be another first-time major winner this year at Baltusrol.
Sergio Garcia is only 25 years old, but it seems like he should be 30 by now. He has been a mainstay at the top of the world rankings since his great performance at the 1999 PGA Championship. Once Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson won major championships, the media dubbed Sergio as the best golfer without a major. The young Spaniard has come close on many occasions, but his weekend play has always let him down. The putter has betrayed Sergio on numerous occasions in recent final-rounds in major championships.
As I mentioned already, the PGA Championship is being held at Baltusrol Golf Club. The last major championship held there was the 1993 U.S. Open, where Lee Janzen was the winner. Since then, the course has been lengthened a great deal. The rough is also very tough according to some of the golfers who have recently played there. Tiger Woods played a few practice rounds last week at Baltusrol, and he attested to the rough being penalizing.
The reason I mention this is because a course like this really fits Sergio’s game nicely. He is one of the longest drivers on the PGA Tour, but he can also get in a rhythym with his accuracy as well. Overall, Sergio is one of the best ball strikers, both off the tee and with his approach shots. Sergio is currently ranked 201st in the world in putting average, and that could be his only downfall this week at the PGA Championship. That being said, he is still 11th in scoring average, so he knows how to keep his game in good form even when the putter is letting him down.
Other than Sergio, I think a lot of the big guns on the PGA Tour have a great chance at winning this week. The course seems to fit the long hitters, and most of the top guys can really hit the ball a long way. Tiger Woods is definitely the favorite this week. I think a first-second-first finish in the majors this year is a pretty good indication of why Tiger is the favorite. He is playing better than he has since 2000 and is definitely in the zone. It won’t shock me one bit if Tiger wins his third major championship of the year, but I think he will end up settling for a top-five finish instead.
Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, and Retief Goosen are the other members of the “Big Five” that will be teeing it up at the PGA Championship this week. Ernie Els, currently ranked third in the world, will be out for the season as everyone knows. These other three golfers will definitely make their marks at Baltusrol as well. Don’t ever count out Vijay, who is coming off a win at the Buick Open and is also the defending champion at the PGA Championship. I don’t see him putting like he did at the Buick Open, however, and I’m predicting a dissapointing top-20 finish for him.
Phil Mickelson has also played Baltusrol recently. He even played a couple holes with Tiger. “Lefty” has stuck to his major championship “winning plan” so-to-speak, but it has only managed to earn him one major victory. Phil did have a good finish at The International this past weekend (T10), but he will also be stuck in the top-20 range when it’s all said and done. I just don’t have much confidence in him right now.
Goosen, on the other hand, has bounced back nicely after his final-round collapse at Pinehurst. He finished in a tie for fifth at the British Open and won The International this past weekend. Goosen just seems to be so calm in major championships, and I think he has as good a chance as any to win at Baltusrol this week. I expect nothing less than a top-ten finish from “Goose.”
While all the talk will be centered around the “Big Four or Five”, I think the non-major winners will dominate things. I have predicted that about every major this year, and I’m sticking to my guns one more time. Like I said, Sergio is going to win the PGA Championship, but I think there will be a few other guys that will challenge him along the way. The guys that come to mind are Luke Donald and Adam Scott. In my opinion, these two are right there with Sergio as the best young golfers in the world. If Garcia does slip up, I think either Donald or Scott will win their first major at Baltusrol. I just really have that first-time major feeling going into this week.
Then I have my sleeper picks. Besides, there have been a couple no-namers win this tournament the last three or four years. I have four guys picked out that I’m keeping an eye on this week. The golfers who have a great shot at shocking the golf world this week are Sean O’Hair, Ben Crane, Mark Hensby, and Ian Poulter. I think all have the game to win big tournaments, and all are playing pretty good golf right now. If I have to pick one out of this group, it would be Mark Hensby. He has played great in the three majors so far in 2005, and he is very capable of walking away with the Wannamaker trophy this Sunday.
As always, the golfers are just one half the story at golf tournaments. The course is the other half. As I mentioned earlier, Baltusrol has been lengthened a great deal since the 1993 U.S. Open, and this really hurts the shorter hitters. Even if the short hitters like Fred Funk put it in the fairway, they are going to have long-iron approaches to fast greens. The short hitters are automatically put behind the eight ball. Luke Donald is considered a short hitter, but I think he will play flawless enough to finish strong. The same goes for Jim Furyk. He isn’t long off the tee by any means, but he always seems to be longer when he needs to be.
Along with Funk, the guys that will struggle are David Toms, Scott Verplank, and Justin Leonard. All three will be in the fairway a lot, but they are going to have play great golf around the greens to even have a chance to contend. I hope I am wrong, as these are some of my favorites. I just think they will be hitting long-irons while other guys will be hitting mid-to-short irons into greens. As always, some of the great ones will play well and some won’t.
Final Thoughts
This week is going to be a great week for golf, and I think the big guns are really going to do well overall. I’m sure most golf fans want to see Vijay vs. Tiger or Tiger vs. Phil. However, I want to see Sergio vs. Adam Scott. I think these two are going to be great stars for years to come, and I think this week will be their time to shine in the spotlight.
Enough is enough, and it’s time for Sergio to get the monkey off his back. He is going to win the first of what will be many major championships on his resume’. If he falters, I look for Adam Scott or Luke Donald to pick up the slack. I have said it once, and I’ll say it again. Someone in their 20s, other than Tiger, is walking away with the Wannamaker trophy this week.
It’s fun to predict the winner of tournaments, but it’s also fun to predict the course conditions and winning score. I think the added length just makes the course tougher for the shorter hitters. I don’t think it necessarily makes the overall scoring any better or worse. Tiger and the other big bombers have proved that the length really don’t make a difference to them.
This week, however, the rough will play a role in deciding the winning score. The golfers will make some birdies, but they are also going to be playing for a lot of pars as well. For the winning score, I’m going with -6. I don’t think it will be as tough as Pinehurst, but I don’t think the players will go as low as they did at St. Andrews either.
That is all I have to say at this point. Now I want to hear what everyone else thinks. Who do you think is going to win the PGA Championship? What will the winning score be when it’s all said and done? How many members of the “Big Five” will be in contention throughout the week? If you have anything to add, feel free to comment below or discuss it in our forum. Thanks for reading Thrash Talk this week, and don’t forget to keep your schedule free this weekend. Have a great golf week!
Photo Credit: © Unknown.
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