In today’s economy it seems that one of the key indices of a healthy market is how the stock market is performing. Currently as China stock market underwent a crash it got me thinking about prospecting. I mainly wonder “If Jordan Spieth were a stock, would I buy or short him?”
There is no question his price in this Golf Street market would be extremely high. Two major wins and two extremely close calls; there is no other way to describe it than to measure it against Tiger’s 2000 season. It was not as good as that season, in fact, not really even that close but it is the closest comparison one can make in recent history. You need to go back to Ben Hogan’s 1953 season to find another to compare it to. Add to this the fact that the 2015 season isn’t over, a win at the season-ending Tour Championship would only add more fuel to a season already full of big fireworks.
Most articles you read about him are gushing. How he is so grounded, so focused, so…well, just great. The golf scribes are in love. I think one of the reasons they are so in love is Tiger treated most of the golf media poorly. He gave nothing interviews, never saying much of anything, and if anyone dared to ask a probing question he blacklisted them, potentially forever. Jordan is friendlier, answers his questions the way the golf media wants him to.
But what about his stock one, three, five, and even ten years from now? His 2015 was pretty magical and statically he had a fantastic year as well. He was near the top of proximity to the hole from almost every distance. He was really incredible from everywhere. Driving was also really good. Short game, yup right near the top. Putting, his stats from 15-25 feet were great, and he really got better the farther he got from the hole. The high finishes in the tournaments were a direct translation of how well he golfed his ball.
But we are prospecting here. We can’t sit only on the success of 2015 and say he can reach the heights that Tiger and Jack did. Both of those guys had many things that separated them from the pack, but there were two things that I think kept their stock so much higher than the other. Mental toughness and length. Jordan seems to have the mental toughness. He won the Masters with the 36-hole lead. It takes a certain mental toughness to drive down Magnolia lane on Saturday and Sunday knowing you are going to be in the final group and play with the lead. The U.S. Open he won a nail biter. For one season he has proven to me that he has what it takes in that department. The distance is the worrying thing for me. Both Jack and Tiger were long and straight. I am not saying they need to lead the Tour in distance but both were long and accurate. Jordan has nailed the accuracy portion, but he is simply average length.
There is also another nagging statistic when I look over his 2015 season. His three- to five-foot putt range. Good putters, the ones who have the best statistics, are usually very good from this distance. Jordan is not. Yes, he had an amazing year from greater than fifteen feet but that is very hard to maintain from year to year. If I was heavily invested in him this has to be a major concern.
So when I combine the lack of distance and poor short putting, my recommendation is sell. I am going to short him. Now, let’s understand something, I am not saying he is not going to win again. In fact, he may even win a few majors as well. But I am predicting that it will be only a few more than the two he has now. So, three to five more in my prediction for a total of five to seven for his career. It would still be a hall of fame career but just not comparable to the truly elite in the game.
The trouble is, if I am going to short Jordan who should I put my money on? Rory has the length and a decent head on his shoulders but I am worried about his overall desire level. He just seems to lose interest from time to time. I would like to seem him be more of a grinder, Tiger was nothing else if not a great grinder. Jordan has a great grinders mentality. Seems the guy I really want to put all my money on is a golfer who is a combination of Rory’s driver and length, and Jordan’s everything else. But the perfect investment is rare, just like Tiger and Jack were. They seem to come around only once in a lifetime.
Photo credits: © Chris Carlson
I think the big difference between Jordan, Jack and Tiger could be the depth of their respective fields. There are just too many new faces playing to pick him out yet as the next Big Thing. Give him two or three more seasons before selling. I would definitely (if he was a stock option) call him a Hold for now.
I’d put him in the Buy category for now. Not a strong buy, because there are many other good players. I would diversify my portfolio, and put a low bid for Rory expecting him to capture a major out of the blue then do a peak sell. He’s due for a good run soon as well.
I’d keep Tiger for the same sentimental reasons I would continue keeping Boeing aviation and IBM. I’m sure he’s due to design golf courses and other things soon. He’s redefining himself.
If I already had stock in him I could make an argument for holding or selling. I think at the close of the season his stock is high, and probably over priced on hype and not supported by the value it should be. You could hold as well and I think he would be a reasonable investment. Stocks and markets are cyclical and the season is over so although they will still be golfing, his name will not be dominating headlines, meaning that the volume of trading on him would fall off which is part of what would swell his stock. A strategy could be to sell now at the close and probably the highest point in the season, and then before the new golfing season starts buy him when trade volumes are low and his price has settled down a bit.
If I did not own stock in him, I would wait until before the new season starts.
And of course, I could not purchase stock in him without looking at what stock in other comparable entities is going for. To make effective and accurate trades and informed decisions, a market needs to be broad and deep.
I can’t imagine any rational golf stock market (assuming such a thing existed) would price Speith’s expected future returns in the same vicinity as his 2015 season. A lot has to go right to win just one major – just look at how long it took Jason Day despite years of stellar play. I think your prediction of 3-5 more majors for Spieth is reasonable and accurate.
But that doesn’t make him a “sell,” IMO. 20 years of steady, solid, “boring” returns are how great portfolios are made. There aren’t any golfers out there that posses Spieths combination of overall skill, composure and youth. Assuming the injury bug doesn’t hit him (and we have no reason to suspect it will), Spieth sounds like a perfect buy and hold to me.
Rory won two majors and a WGC last year. That is not a better year, how?
@pumaAttack, Please look at more than just the wins. Where did Rory finish in the majors he didn’t win? Did he miss out on a playoff by one shot and finish second in the other?
I understand the point regarding a weakness in short putting but by no means does Speith “lack distance.” Averaging 295 off of the tee is plenty to compete and when he needs to, he can step it up a bit to get it over 300.
Would have sold after the British, and bought again at a low point, probably towards the end of the year. Every golfer has his streaks, and then tires. Jordan is human, and young. Fatigue, fame, attention, media suck the life out of you. After the holidays, I’d think that’s enough rest. Think he will be a force for a long time. His swing does not look as if it will injure him. I can’t say the same for Jason Day or Rory … I think their swings will lead them to more of a roller coaster ride.