Three Questions for 2009

Admittedly, the Mercedes-Benz Championship in Hawaii is still over a month away. Premier players are probably testing equipment for the upcoming year, honing their swings, and generally relaxing. The steady flow of information from the golf media has turned into a veritable trickle in these off months. Following the Thanksgiving fattening, the madness of Black Friday (perhaps somewhat subdued this year), and in the grips of the Christmas spirit, which becomes incarnate at this time each year, I’ll do my best to speculate regarding some possibilities for the 2009 season.

Will Tiger be Tiger?
Although his improbable victory at the U.S. Open was easily the year’s greatest achievement, Tiger Woods’ knee surgery – and the process of rehabilitation and recuperation – is the story of 2008 which is most significant going into the 2009 season.

Whether you can’t stand him, simply respect him, or unconditionally adore him, Tiger Woods is the most prominent figure in the world of golf with the largest crossover appeal into popular culture and the general sports press. His return to competitive play will be the subject of much scrutiny and every talking head on radio and television alike will assert his/ her opinion as to whether the world’s number one player is still the capable of dominance.

Can Tiger continue the upward trajectory which he displayed in the latter part of 2007 and in the early portion of 2008? With respect to the injuries which Woods was dealing with at the time, his play from the WGC Bridgestone Invitational in 2007 through the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines may eventually be looked upon at the finest stretch of play in his career. Whether he will be able to continue to produce victories with the same frequency in the upcoming year is unclear. The effects of the surgery, both short and long term, remain to be seen.

Woods is the greatest competitive golfer since Jack Nicklaus. He is capable of winning with his “C” game. Even so, there is a bare minimum in quality of ball-striking and putting which Tiger needs to maintain in order to will himself to victories. If he doesn’t have this, he will use his ubiquitous fortitude and determination to make cuts, rather than collect trophies, as he did in parts of 2003 and 2004.

Will a Rival Finally Emerge?
Right beside the quest for the “next Michael Jordan,” the most annoying and oft-discussed search in the world of sports is for the rival who will step up on a consistent basis to challenge Tiger Woods. This search may be inherently fruitless, as the former hunt tends to be. Consider those appointed to occupy Jordan’s throne. Harold Miner, anyone?

Camilo Villegas, Sergio Garcia, and Anthony Kim are the three standouts for this honor. Padraig Harrington and Vijay Singh deserve honorable mentions, but their ages – 37 and 45 respectively – make them a bit old for the title. Villegas, Garcia and Kim are in the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking. All three also finished in the top five of the FedExCup Playoffs and the top 10 of the Season Money List for the PGA Tour.

Kim, with victories at the AT&T National and the Wachovia Championship, and bolstered by stellar play at the Ryder Cup has the most buzz surrounding him. He also seems the most committed to excellence, having abandoned a relatively indulgent lifestyle in favor of an effort to maximize his talents and make the most of the abilities he has been given.

Sergio Garcia hit 67% of the greens he played in regulation in 2008. He was 20th in sand save percentage. Yet even in the year of a supposedly resurgent putter, he still managed to finish 142nd in putts per round and 107th in putting average. It’s difficult to find anyone else who occupies such a high position on the greens in regulation list and putts so poorly. If Garcia would ever make putts consistently (particularly from 10 feet and in), behave maturely and actually care, he could easily challenge Woods on a regular basis. This is unlikely to happen any time soon, however.

Known more for his “spider man” style of green reading (who else is sick of this receiving airtime? I mean, who really cares? Although, the pose does provide commentators the opportunity make stock comments such as, ‘I could get down there, but I’d never get up…’) and his motley J. Lindberg wardrobe, Villegas won twice late in the year. He hits the ball a long way and putts reasonably well, if he continues to improve, Villegas may be a serious contender.

Will Somebody be this Year’s Kenny Perry?
No one’s to say that Kenny Perry can’t do again, at age 48, what he did last year – which was nothing less than three victories and seven top-ten finishes. However, absent the obvious motivation of making the Ryder Cup Team, Perry is unlikely to duplicate his performance.

There’s not a clear standout choice here. Perhaps, Tommy Armour III, who had five top-ten finishes in 2008, or maybe the charismatic U.S. Open runner-up, Rocco Mediate, or even Bart Bryant might play surprisingly well this year. The reality here is that whoever will succeed Kenny Perry as the “formerly mediocre player who suddenly wins three times in a year,” is safely positioned well off of the radar screen.

With Tiger and without him, 2008 was an excellent year in golf. We can only hope that 2009 is better. If Tiger continues his superior form, a rival emerges to challenge him on a weekly basis, and a journeyman rises from obscurity to win multiple times, it very well could be.