2015 U.S. Open Staff Predictions

It is time for golf’s annual torture chamber! Better known as the U.S. Open, this year at Chambers Bay. Let’s see what excitement TST staff is expecting for 2015.

Thrash TalkIf you asked most golfers to describe the U.S. Open in a single sentence you would likely hear a great deal about thick rough and tree-lined traditional golf courses. Well, not this year. The U.S. Open is heading to my new home state of Washington in the Pacific Northwest to play at Chambers Bay not too far from Seattle. The venue is getting lots of people talking as well as the new broadcast team from Fox of Joe Buck, Greg Norman, and old favorite Holly Sonders.

With Tiger struggling to find his game and Rory coming off two straight missed cuts in Europe there are no clear favorites to get behind. Even recent Masters champion Jordan Spieth has not played that well since donning the green jacket. So you could call the U.S. Open truly an open competition because just about anyone has the chance to win.

With all these great storylines to discuss let’s see what the staff’s expectations are for this year’s event.

1. Who are you picking to win the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay? At what score? Why did you make this choice?

Michael C. Hepp
I so badly want to pick Phil Mickelson. I want to see him win the career grand slam, all those seconds and this is really one of his last chances to pull it off. But I don’t think this course suits him from the perspective of how much effort it is going to take to win. The course is built on the side of the hill and the winner will need to be in really good shape. Likely pretty young. I also think the greens are going to be pretty slow, which takes away his advantage of being such a great putter. I will be rooting for him but I don’t expect him to do it. So my pick needs to be a really good ballstriker, really top notch, but a so so putter. So I am going to pick Jason Day with a score of +2.

Bill Chao
I’m going with Dustin Johnson, at +1. All the talk about Chambers Bay has focused on links-style golf and it’s length. DJ is a guy who hits it long but at a lower height than the other long ball hitters, so he’s got somewhat of an advantage in the wind. Plus, he’s been pretty good in the British Open historically, which a lot of people have been comparing this tournament too. He’s come back from his leave of absence and played his way back to a top-10 ranking. I think it’s his time.

Mike McLoughlin
Even though he’s been in a victory slump I’m going with Phil Mickelson, because I think the course sets up very well for him. There’s room to drive the ball and we all know Phil isn’t the most accurate player. Also, the course requires a lot of creativity with the short clubs and Phil enjoys pulling off challenging shots. Phil wins at -2 and gets his career grand slam.

George Promenschenkel
Can I just pick the 2:17 PDT Thursday (Spieth, Rose, Day) starting time and be done with it? I want to pick Jordan Spieth to keep the grand slam hopes alive, but the putter lately hasn’t been what it was at Augusta. So, I’m going with Justin Rose who came very close at the Memorial, losing in a playoff. He’s hot, he’s shown that he can handle U.S. Open pressure, he has plenty of experience on links courses, and he has one of the sweetest swings out there. In a championship with lots of unanswered questions about the course, Rose at 276 (4-under) could be a good bet.

Jamieson Weiss
Jordan Spieth, -2. I finally got one right when I picked him to win the Masters, so I’m planning on riding this one out until he loses (probably this weekend).

Scott Curry
This choice is difficult because the U.S. Open is so hard. It doesn’t matter how well you were playing last week or the week before. I am going with Justin Rose for two reasons. One, he gets the ball in the fairway off the tee, which is critical. Two, putting accuracy is premium. Justin has been putting very well and can handle the greens at Chambers Bay because he is an AimPoint player.

Tristan Hilton
I finally got one of these right when I picked Spieth to win the Masters, and I’d definitely like to keep that going. I think that I’m going to go with McIlroy to win. He seems to be very streaky. I think that he’ll start a good run starting at Chambers Bay. The combination of having one majors before along with a lot of experience on links courses will help him win.

Erik J. Barzeski
I’m going with the local guy Ryan Moore at -2. I think he has a charmed week and pulls it out. And, I’m working on my predictions shutout streak.

2. One of the big stories surrounding this year’s U.S. Open is the change from NBC to Fox. How do you think Fox will handle things? Are you looking forward to the new broadcaster?

Michael C. Hepp
I like how Fox covers the World Series and football so I am intrigued to see how they do with golf. I enjoy listening to Joe Buck for baseball, but I have no idea how much golf he watches to know if he will call it properly. Greg Norman is not going to be great right away almost all the analysts need time year before finding their own voice.

Bill Chao
I’ve read a few things about some new things Fox is going to do and I’m pretty excited about it. I think being being a newcomer to golf broadcasting can be a good thing. There’s probably going to be some hiccups along the way, but I think they’ll do alright. Plus, Chambers Bay is gorgeous.

As for the broadcasters, I honestly don’t really care. If they’re awful, I can mute them. Expect to see a lot of Holly.

Mike McLoughlin
Like with Johnny Miller, I’m sure we’ll get to hear how great Greg Norman thinks he is/was. It will also be interesting to hear Joe Buck doing golf. Overall I don’t think it will be any better or worse than NBC but I am looking forward to seeing the pros play Chambers Bay.

George Promenschenkel
I’m not particularly enamored of FOX coverage of other sporting events… the FoxTrax made hockey look like a bad video game with the glowing laser of light often trailing the action by noticeable margins. I hope they don’t bring too much of that sort of thing into the equation. As for Greg Norman, his willingness to speak his mind should be interesting.

Jamieson Weiss
I’m not particularly afraid of anything but Greg Norman. I hope Fox brings a few cool new graphics, and I’d love a heavy use of their version of ProTracer, but it’s really the golf that will make or break the tournament. TNT manages to pull golf coverage off just fine the one tournament a year they get to cover. I think Fox will do just fine.

Scott Curry
I am looking forward to the new technology but I am worried that Fox will over-promote the technology. I hope they don’t constantly talk about how new it is. Second, I am not a fan of Joe Buck in baseball or football, so I don’t see how I will like him in golf. There should be a drinking game where you have to take a shot for every time Greg Norman talks about himself. But this would be dangerous.

Tristan Hilton
I think Fox is going to try to do too much with their broadcast. Judging by their coverage of other sports, they really like to bring a lot of technology to their coverage, and I’m sure they are going to do the same here; I’m just not sure how well it’s going to work. As far as the new broadcasters, I’m not sure. I’m not convinced that Joe Buck is the best guy to do golf, but only time will tell.

Erik J. Barzeski
I think, like Tristan, that Fox will do too much. But I’m glad, and particularly this first year, I’m willing to give them a lot of rope. I think there’s value in trying new things. Fox has been innovative. Sure, things like the glowing puck were stupid, but they abandoned them and kept what worked.

I am not sure about Joe Buck or Greg Norman, but perhaps they have a hidden talent for calling golf. I’ve never cared much for Holly, to be honest. On them, I guess we’ll find out. Unlike with the technology, I’m giving them a shorter rope, because calling golf itself is not something you can advance with tech.

Rory McIlroy

3. Tiger has not played well in 2015. What are your predicted scores for Thursday and Friday, and what are your overall expectations?

Michael C. Hepp
If this were a course that Tiger was familiar with my expectations would be higher. Considering how unfamiliar he is with the course I don’t see him contending. He is a grinder which is a good trait for a U.S. Open but he is not driving it well and just not hitting greens with enough consistency. Makes the cut but doesn’t contend. Frankly I am just glad he is healthy and playing again. I have adjusted what I expect him to do now. Next year once he has had a chance to play a full season I will up my expectations and if he doesn’t start winning I might start giving up on him.

Bill Chao
76-81, MC. Let’s face it, he just doesn’t have it this year.

Mike McLoughlin
76-76 and misses the cut. His swing work with Como is still unfamiliar to him because he had to spend a lot of time early in the year fixing his pitching technique. I think he can get by on a course he knows well like Augusta but at a tricky course like Chambers Bay I see him having a hard time. Yes he sucked with his driver and 3 wood off the tee at the Memorial but his distance control with his irons wasn’t great either. That will be a huge piece of the puzzle for the players looking to contend.

George Promenschenkel
A couple weeks ago, I’d have expected him to make the cut and probably be a top 20 finisher. But after watching him spray it around Muirfield Village for four days, I’d put his odds to make the cut at about 50/50 and his chance to contend at negligible. The only reason I give him a 50% chance to make the cut is that he can play the salvage game very well, and make something of nothing with his “B” game. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think Chambers Bay is going to fit the current state of Tiger’s game well at all.

Jamieson Weiss
I’ll say he shoots 74 both days and makes the cut, but I don’t have much faith in him this weekend. (None of you can see my fingers crossed behind my back, right?)

Scott Curry
Tiger will make the cut but it is hard to predict the score. I will go with +2. He rises to the occasion in majors. No one thought he would do well in the Masters and he did OK.

Tristan Hilton
It’s really tough to tell. He didn’t do too bad at the Masters, but that was at a course that he does very well on. His game at the Memorial left a lot to be desired. I’d love to say that he’ll make the cut, but I just don’t see that happening.

Erik J. Barzeski
Tiger has a small, teeny chance to win. I think he’ll make the cut. The teeniest chance of winning is increased the tougher the course plays and decreased the easier it plays. If guys are shooting 66s, he has no chance. If they’re shooting 71s, he can match them for awhile. It’s not a big chance, but it exists.

4. Last year’s winner Martin Kaymer has not done much to back up his 2014 win. How do you think he will do this year?

Michael C. Hepp
Missed cut. Pinehurst was a funny test last year and I am not sure how soon it will be before the USGA returns there. Kaymer ran away with the event but really has disappeared since.

Bill Chao
He had a couple of good tournaments earlier this year, but hasn’t done much else since. I think he misses the cut.

Mike McLoughlin
I think he’ll make the cut but won’t contend. He’s a little bit like Angel Cabrera, he shows up for the big events and plays well on tough courses, Whistling Straits, Pinehurst #2 and TPC Sawgrass.

George Promenschenkel
Kaymer is trending in the wrong way in 2015. If he suddenly started driving the ball like he was at Pinehurst he would have a very good shot at repeating, but I do not expect that to happen or for Martin to be playing the weekend.

Jamieson Weiss
He’ll probably have a typical anonymous Martin Kaymer week and make the weekend without really doing much. I like the guy, but unless he’s winning, he has a tendency to completely no-show in the vast majority of the tournaments he plays.

Scott Curry
Kaymer will make the cut, but not be a contender. He seems to rise and fall every other year.

Tristan Hilton
I think he’ll be somewhere in the top half of the leader board come the weekend. I don’t think that he’ll ever be in serious contention to defend is title, but I don’t think he’ll miss the cut either.

Erik J. Barzeski
T37. He is supposedly feeling pretty good right now, and was knocked out of Augusta with the flu or something, but I still don’t see him putting it together. I think as “German” as he is, and he fits a lot of the stereotypes, he may lack the creativity necessary to play Chambers Bay well.

5. Chambers Bay has received mixed early reports, many negative. How do you see the course performing?

Michael C. Hepp
Having moved to the Pacific Northwest I am excited that we are getting a chance to host such a major golf tournament. That said, I watched a lot of the 2010 U.S. Amateur and I did not like watching that tournament on TV. The course was awkward, especially the par threes. The tees seemed miles above the greens and the cameraman would often lose the balls and then they would just appear. I guess better camera operators might help this but there was just too much strangeness for me. At times the putting was on par with a few mini golf courses I have played. On occasion a golfer would be farther away from the hole than when they started. I would like to see the course host a regular event before hosting such a traditional event such as the U.S. Open.

Bill Chao
The players are going to gripe. I think some of the setup stuff the USGA can do is going to seem pretty gimmicky, and I’m not sure I agree with stuff like uneven lies on tee boxes and funky pin positions. It’s going to be… interesting.

Mike McLoughlin
Generally U.S. Opens involve narrow fairways, high rough, miss it, hack it out, try and make a par from the fairway. Chambers Bay will play more like a links course with players being able to run the ball up, have a bunch of options off the tee and dealing with windy/cold conditions. I kinda have the feeling the players won’t like it, I heard about the uneven lies on some of the tees and the severely banked greens. I can see some players feeling it’s too “tricked up”.

George Promenschenkel
It wouldn’t be the U.S. Open without some hand wringing about the course. Chambers Bay has been a controversial choice from the start with many questioning its pedigree to hold a championship of this magnitude. Yes it’s a new course, but it’s a new western course, and that’s important for the USGA, which has been criticized by many of it’s western members for not staging enough championships in the western states. I think Chambers Bay is going to provide a very entertaining weekend for golf fans and a frustrating one for the players.

Jamieson Weiss
I have high expectations. It looks beautiful, and maybe more importantly, it looks interesting. I like seeing the USGA mix it up. It wouldn’t be a U.S. Open without a few players chirping about unfair greens. Bring it on.

Scott Curry
Hard. It should be hard. This is the U.S. Open and any winning score more than -1 or -2 will be a disappointment.

Tristan Hilton
I’m really looking forward to the course this year. This definitely isn’t going to play like a typical U.S. Open. In the end I think you’re going to see the same kind of scores we normally see with something around par winning. Players are going to have to get creative at Chambers Bay, and it’s going to make for a very interesting championship in my opinion.

Erik J. Barzeski
I think this is the culmination of the Mike Davis era of setups. Pars will change. There’s little rough. Tees will change by 90° or so and 100+ feet of elevation. Some par fours will be drivable, while others will be well over 500 yards (though as far as the ball should roll, they’ll still have only a mid-iron in). I think the course will teeter on the edge all week, I think a LOT of guys will complain (though maybe not publicly given Jack Nicklaus’s age-old comments about guys knocking themselves out by doing so), and I hope it remains playable. I’ve been looking forward to this U.S. Open since it was announced.

Photo credits: © Fox Sports

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