Eight tournaments up and eight tournaments down. We’ve had a long hitter (JB Holmes) win at the FBR and a few not-so-long hitters (David Toms, Arron Obelholser) win at Waialae and Pebble Beach. Another thing we’ve also had is a lot of talk, discussion and consternation in our forums and from an old friend.
I’ve taken each winner’s numbers and see if they agree with one side or the other… or even both. Read on to see what it says.
The Numbers
In writing this column, I’ve come to expect surprises. Nearly every week, there’s some surprise or another. This week, the surprise was that the data continues to prove what we’ve already learned. Here are the rankings for each player in their respective tournament:
Tournament Winner DD DA PPR PA GIR
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Mercedes Champ Stuart Appleby 2 7 1 6 5
Sony Open David Toms 11 9 3 1 2
Bob Hope Chr Clsc Chad Campbell 34 37 6 4 12
Buick Invitational Tiger Woods 5 55 41 36 9
FBR Open JB Holmes 13 62 1 8 33
AT&T Pebble Beach Arron Oberholser 64 9 1 1 40
Nissan Open Rory Sabbatini 6 65 20 3 6
Chrysler Classic Kirk Triplett 41 16 1 12 11
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Averages 22 32.5 9.25 8.88 14.75
And here are the actual values:
Tournament Winner DD DA PPR PA GIR
---------- ------ -- -- --- -- ---
Mercedes Appleby 274.0 76.7 29.3 1.808 72.2
Sony Open Toms 307.4 55.4 27.3 1.630 75.0
Bob Hope Campbell 290.2 63.8 27 1.603 75.6
Buick Invit Woods 306.3 46.4 30 1.774 73.6
FBR Open Holmes 308.0 55.4 27 1.660 69.4
Pebble Beach Oberholser 259.3 80.0 25.8 1.522 63.9
Nissan Open Sabbatini 297.9 46.4 27.5 1.646 66.7
Chrysler Class Triplett 296.5 71.4 26.8 1.638 80.6
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Averages 292.45 61.94 27.59 1.660 72.1
GIR and Putting… Again
I keep repeating this over and over, but the data keeps forcing me to do it. I don’t get tired of saying that putting and Greens in Regulation (GIR) are the clear paths to victory – putting especially. Other than Tiger Woods, all the players that won tournaments finished in the top 10 in either (or both) of the putting stats. Arron Oberholser finished first in both! There were six different times a winning player finished first in a putting stat… none of the other stats had a single one.
As for GIR, it averaged slightly behind putting. This was the runner-up in the “surprise of the week” contest. In most of my research GIR had placed slightly ahead of putting and well ahead of the other stats. In fact, of the winners, GIR tied or placed ahead of DD five out of eight times. It only lost out to DA once in the eight tournaments.
Greens and putting… putting and greens. That’s STILL what it’s all about.
Distance, Flogging and Making Sense of it All
I’ve successfully avoided talking about the topic at hand. Our friend Mr. Shackleford seems to think that because JB Holmes won a tournament hitting the ball a ton, the game is broken. What he fails to notice (or at least mention) is that JB putted better than anyone else the week of the FBR Open. Also, he wasn’t even the longest driver of the ball that week. Twelve other players were longer off the tee. Why didn’t they win, Geoff?
So is the problem systemic? Are all the winners hitting it long without regard of where the ball is going? There is a short answer. No.
If you look at the numbers there are three players that were much longer than they were accurate, two that were more accurate than they were long and three that were pretty much equally accurate and long. I would hardly call this a problem or a damning trend. I won’t even graph it because it has been hashed and re-hashed. Read some of my previous columns if you need to get up to speed.
A Little Secret
I want to share something with you. I’m not a distance hater. (Contrary to what many might think.) Just about everyone can appreciate a well struck ball. Whenever I get a chance to see the pros play on Tour, I’ll spend a good part of my time with the rest of the crowds trying to follow Tiger and the other long knockers.
However, I’m also a fact finder. I want to answer questions and make people think about things differently after hearing about these facts. Don’t think I have an agenda… if you do, then prove me wrong… I could be. There is so much to this game that it astounds me. Like Erik said, it is hardly black and white, but a shade of grey.
Dave,
Winning golf tourney’s always demands shooting low scores and low scores are dervived by putting the ball in the hole earlier than your competitors.
Driving Distance improves your chances of hitting greens, but unless you could drive Par 4’s or if you were the only person that could reach a Par 5 in 2, it will not separate you from the field by itself.
However, let’s get real about the driving distance averages. DD is only measured on certain holes and Mr. J.B. Holmes was hitting irons to some Par 4’s where others were using driver. He was routinely hitting wedges to all Par 4’s and irons to Par 5’s. They are hitting the ball 320 when they need it on many holes today. J.B. hit the ball over 340 yards about 6 times on that final sunday. Phil was even playing with a longer shafted driver to get more distance rather than worry about accuracy. The rough is rarely ever penal.
The problem that everyone is aware of, that nobody wants to address, is at what distance will we stop the Pro’s from reaching. I put 400 yard drives on a previous comment as my point where distance becomes a problem and the writer of the article said that was way off in the future. I am just wondering how many years away we are from 350 and 375 and ultimately 400. I never thought I would see a guy hit the ball 350 6 times in a round.
Many famous courses cannot be extended in many cases. Many courses are not played anymore because of their distance. Look at the total distance of the Majors golf courses now and compare that with 10 years ago. It is scary.
Those numbers all point to “we need to control the distance somehow”.
Vijay, Phil, and Tiger are not the 3 longest hitters, but they are not that far off. They won half the significant golf events in the last 2 years. They are probably the ones that combine distance and short game skills the best.
Unfortunately, distance has become a bigger factor in the modern era.
First off, nice work Dave!
Second, I still refuse to say driving distance has changed the game of golf. Andy, you mentioned how Tiger, Phil, and Vijay are all at the top of the list when it comes to driving distance. Then you mentioned how all three have great short games to match. The short-game prowess of all these guys are what separates them from the rest.
If Tiger hit it 20-30 yards less off the tee, he would still be winning just as many tournaments. And the same goes for Vijay and Phil. Vijay’s iron-play is fantastic, and Phil’s imagination around the green is awesome (except the occasional two-footer for par).
Driving distance is the most overrated statistic in all of golf because it’s only registered on a certain amount of holes. That’s crap if you ask me and doesn’t mean squat.
Guys who are in the middle of the pack in driving distance can win just as easily as the big bombers if their GIR and putting is top-notch.
Just look at the numbers Dave posted. The proof is in the pudding. JB Holmes wouldn’t have done anything if he wasn’t hitting his irons well.
And as for Tiger, he is an exception to all rules. He can win when he is hitting left-handed. 🙂
Cody,
My main point of my comment is that one stat does not win a golf tournament. Winning golf usually involves hitting the ball well to the green and putting well at the same time. Today’s competition demands it.
Dave indicates Putting has more significance for the winner, and that is probably true for many years, not just 2006. This is no relevation.
Nicklaus was long during his era. Tiger is clearly long in his era.
I would argue that Funk, DiMarco, and Donald will win some golf events, but the odds are stacked in favor of the longer hitters having more success on most courses they compete on. The PGA course setups, and manicure contribute the most to this.
As an example, Tiger and others can hit 7 irons from 200. Long iron skills are rarely called for in today’s game. This is one reason why the Masters now has a 230+ Par 3. I would think a 5 iron is easier to control than a 4 wood. This is where the longer hitters also have an advantage.
My point is that distance has become a bigger factor towards success than in the past. The PGA needs to think how they can adjust the course setups to balance the game a little better. The alternative will be 8000 yard courses that guys like Fred Funk do not show up at.
You guys are the 14573 best, thanks so much for the help.