2007 British Open Staff Predictions

This week’s article is a group effort, as your friendly Sand Trap staff gives you their take on the Open Championship. Although perhaps with no hope of any degree of accuracy beyond what you’d get with the dart board approach, we’ll bring our knowledge and experience in golf to bear on predicting the winner and a few other things.

Read on to hear our thoughts, and feel free to add your own!

Thoughts on the Course

Erik J. Barzeski
Carnoustie is being called “Carnicety” this go ’round, but I think the weather will try to make up for any added “niceness.” Sure, the rough may be less severe and the fairways wider, but any course that can throw four seasons at you in four hours is not “nice” by any stretch of the imagination. The winning score will be lower than 1999, but not by a shot per four holes or anything.

Jack Waddell
I was lucky enough to play Carnoustie many years ago… well before the current clubhouse and some of the changes they’ve made over the years. I still remember my caddie’s name: Jim Jack. It remains one of my all time favorites and one of my fondest golfing memories. The finishing holes are brutally difficult. It sounds like the setup and conditions have changed substantially since the last Open. The course may play a little softer and the rough a little more lush. But, obviously, that’s relative. It’s a great test that, like Shinnecock, was unfairly presented in its last Open by an idiotic course setup. Hopefully, they’ll get it right this year. Either way, I can’t wait to watch.

Alan Olson
The Open Championship returns to Carnoustie for the first time since 1999. With a rich and storied history, this links course can bring the world’s best golfers to their knees (or crying to their mothers). Links golf brings out some of the greatest creativity you will ever see on a golf course, which is nice departure from the sometimes monotonous bomb and gouge style on the PGA Tour.

Jeff Smith
I’m really looking forward to Carnoustie. We’ll all get the chance to watch more Jean Van de Velde meltdown clips than we thought possible. Tiger said of the 1999 Open at Carnoustie in his July 12, 2007 newsletter, “the set-up was unfair and ridiculous.” He said the course is, “extremely fair… it’s not like it was in 1999.” It might not be as fair as we expect if the wind blows but Carnage-oustie will be a great venue.

Donald MacKenzie
I was fortunate enough to play Carnoustie a few years back, and I have to say it was a really fun course for a friendly round. But with the pressure of trying to win an Open Championship, or just not embarrassing yourself in front of millions of people around the world, I bet Carnoustie makes for a rather grim 18 holes. Every part of your game is tested, and you can’t get away with mistakes like you can at the Old Course or other links layouts. Carnoustie is as close to a U.S. Open-type course as you’ll ever see at the British Open, which means you often end up with a survivor rather than a winner.

Dave Koster
For some reason, there are those who don’t like Carnoustie. People like to dump on golf courses for some reason, but I won’t here. I mean, its links golf. I’m sure the course is different than the others, but it can’t be that different. The 7400-yard par-71 layout will provide plenty of a test…heck, the last winning score there was +6 when Lawrie won in 1999.

JP Bouffard
What more can anyone say about the challenge of Carnoustie? The big wildcard is weather. If it’s unseasonably cold, or windy, or rainy, scores could be as high as 1999, even with a more benevolent set up. Water and out of bounds at the finishing holes can make for wild swings of fate (even if they manage to do something about the uncooperative grand stand railings).

Winner and Score

Erik J. Barzeski
Tiger Woods, 278 (-6). I think the three-peat is well within his grasp and Tiger’s tired of hearing about his second-place finishes at Augusta and Oakmont. If there are any two things that drive Tiger Woods, it’s history and shutting up the naysayers. It’s tough to go against anyone who’s won about 25% of the majors in which he’s played.

Jack Waddell
Phil Mickelson, 281 (-3). As I write this he’s playing a terrific Scottish Open. Whether he wins or not, I think this signals his wrist, while it still pains him, is up to the challenge of firm Scottish fairways and gnarly rough. Also, he’s played well and won the week before other good performances in majors. He’s ready. I didn’t pick Tiger only because his putting was so suspect at the AT&T National. The narrow fairways will play to Tiger’s strength with the stinger he used to win last year, but I just don’t think he’ll repeat.

Alan Olson
Henrick Stenson, 284 (E). In the all Swedish final, he defeats Niclas Fasth by one stroke. Not only does Europe hold the Ryder Cup, they now reclaim the Claret Jug.

Jeff Smith
Tiger Woods, 281 (-3). Sorry for picking Tiger. Again. I don’t feel like getting creative and I also don’t feel like losing this gentleman’s bet. This would make three Open Championships in a row. I believe that Tiger had a winning formula last year that he’ll employ yet again. He’s about ready to find his “A-game.” Again.

Donald MacKenzie
Ernie Els, 279 (-5). Carnoustie is a course for patient players, and all signs point to Ernie getting back into the groove that serves him so well at the Open. That, and he’s bombing the FT-i driver he just put in the bag last week, and it never hurts to go into a major championship with the boom stick working.

Dave Koster
Tiger Woods, 280 (-4) I see no reason why Tiger won’t win at Carnoustie. The harder the course, the better he seems to do.

JP Bouffard
Tiger Woods, -4 (280). Boring, I know, but it’s hard to pick otherwise, especially when his chief competition seems to still be a few drivers short of a full round. One of the defining characteristics of Sir Eldrick’s career is the way he quickly assesses his failures and makes adjustments. It’s almost assured he will be in the hunt, and if he is, I have a feeling he won’t let this one get away. The only thing I see possibly derailing him is unexpectedly cold and blustery conditions.

Dark-Horse Winner

Erik J. Barzeski
A quiet American like Stuart Cink or JJ Henry could pull off a win, as could first-round leader (and cut-misser) in 1999, Rod Pampling. It’s tough to go against any of the Australians, but then again, most of them are high enough in the World Rankings that you can’t quite call them dark horses.

Jack Waddell
OK, Erik, I won’t commit the faux pas of picking somebody inside the top 30 in the world rankings as I did for the U.S. Open. So how about John Rollins at 43 in the world? He’s having a very strong season and his strength will be an asset on this long and difficult course.

Alan Olson
Jerry Kelly. He’s unfazed about playing near the lead in the majors with top ten finishes at both The Masters and the U.S. Open this year. He could sneak in and take home the Claret Jug.

Jeff Smith
Dark-horse? I’ll give you a dark-horse! Kenny Perry is the man. Last weekend he slipped from 107th to 108th in the World Golf Rankings. This is no indication how Perry has been playing during the last few weeks. When he’s on he’s among the longest drivers one Tour and he’s a successful “after-40” Tour journeyman. I like Perry’s game, quirky swing, and chances this weekend.

Donald MacKenzie
Toru Taniguchi. Toru is, as they say, big in Japan. He earned and lost a PGA Tour card a couple years back, but he’s regained his game after a couple off years. Stranger things have happened.

Dave Koster
Colin Montgomerie. The last European to win the Open was a Scotsman in 1999, how about another one? Could it happen? He finished a respectable six shots back in ’99 and will be near the top of the leaderboard at the end of this week as well. Keep your eye on Angel Cabrera too. He was only one shot back in 1999.

JP Bouffard
Rod Pampling. Having a great year, and he’s a solid ball-striker, sure to be an advantage in windy conditions.

Biggest Disappointment

Erik J. Barzeski
Phil Mickelson simply does not like golf in the British Isles. But Zach Johnson has never made a cut in the Open Championship, either. It’s a coin toss for me which will have a more disappointing tournament at the tournament, but one – or both – could miss the cut. Neither will contend.

Jack Waddell
I could say Tiger not winning, but I think he’ll at least contend, and that’s not disappointing at all. So I think it will be Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrerra, the two major winners this year, who disappoint us by not coming close to another major. And that’s too bad because they’re both worthy champions and another quick major would cement their position in the top echelon of players.

Alan Olson
Mother Nature plays nice for the week and the weather is calm.

Jeff Smith
Which do you want? Colin Montgomerie (we know he’ll choke), Luke Donald (“Luke Donald Golf” hasn’t won a major yet), Vijay Singh (not Sunday buddy), or Adam Scott (the highest ranked non-major man the game has to offer). I’ll take Scott for 400! Adam Scott has got game. Lots of game. A beautiful swing. The only thing he lacks are steady-major-champion-Sunday nerves and a killer instinct.

Donald MacKenzie
Tiger Woods. I expect a strong showing from Tiger, but not a win. And for Tiger to get to the end of July without a major is a disappointment for everyone, especially him.

Dave Koster
I just don’t see the Euros claiming victory. My disappointment is that they will continue their losing streak in their “home” major. I just hope they don’t pull a Van de Velde on the last hole.

JP Bouffard
Sergio. Nobody with such incredible talent should be so far off everyone’s radar screen. But honestly, can anyone really see him holding it together enough to win one? Not me.

Largest Surprise

Erik J. Barzeski
John Daly doesn’t withdraw or DQ himself? That’d be a surprise at the rate he’s going this year. I was tempted to say “Nick Faldo makes the cut” but that won’t happen. We’ll see him on the weekend covering the event for ABC with Paul Azinger. Bobby Clampett won’t clamp it, but that would be a welcome surprise!

Jack Waddell
Colin Montgomerie comes back from his dismal performance and missed cut in the Scottish Open to contend down the stretch for the title. Unfortunately he hands the tournament to Phil Mickelson with a Van de Velde-like triple on the last hole whereupon he throws his clubs and his caddie into the burn, stalks off the course, and is never heard from again except for public drunken tirades detailed in the British tabloids.

Alan Olson
Justin Leonard finishes in the top five.

Jeff Smith
Charley “I’m too inexperienced to win majors” Hoffman is going to surprise you for more than his extremely bad hair. He’s gonna play well this time around and start proving his on PGA Tour win is legit.

Donald MacKenzie
Charl Schwartzel. The Little Easy is the South African heir apparent, and he’s due to make a splash on a large stage. I expect to see him on the leaderboard into the weekend.

Dave Koster
I really want to pick Davis Love here. OK, I will. This is his last chance. If he absolutely falls on his face then I just can’t call him my favorite player any more. Love has been struggling with his game… or at least putting a consistent four rounds together. One of these days he’s going to put it together. Maybe it won’t happen at Carnoustie, but I think he’ll make the cut and be on the first two pages of the leader board at the end.

JP Bouffard
Tony Jacklin makes the cut. OK, maybe that’s ridiculous. How about John Daly making the cut?

Your Turn

Share your thoughts in the comments below.