Nine Holes of Hype or Not Hype

There’s a lot of hype out there this year, maybe even more than usual. There’s always a lot of pre-major hype this time of year regarding some of the big names in golf, but 2009 also features a number of young faces coming to a major near you.

Here’s the thing about hype. Sometimes there’s truth behind it. Sometimes it’s just hot air. We complain a lot about hype, but I kind of think of it as a USGA index. Events seldom live up to the hype, just like you can’t shoot your index very often (it is based on your best 10 rounds out of your last 20, not an average). But you might shoot your index in your best rounds. Each is about proven or (in the case of hype) perceived potential.

When it comes to sporting events, hype tells us about what is possible. It also boosts ratings and sells advertising, but there has to be a kernel of truth there or we’d never buy it. At its best, it is not about what will happen, but what might. And so, though the hype might drive us nuts from time to time, here’s a look at nine of the most hyped golfers of the 2009 season and an assessment of the truth lying below.

Hole One: Hello World! Take Two
Nearly two years ago, Ryo Ishikawa became the youngest winner ever on the Japan Golf Tour when he took the Munsingwear Open KSB Cup at age 15 years and eight months, playing as an amateur in his very first appearance in a tour event. This year, Ryo made his first PGA Tour start at Riviera just like Tiger Woods did. Ryo even stole Tiger’s opening press conference line. Though his stats from the event were better than Tiger’s inaugural numbers at Riviera, Ryo and the throngs of Japanese media following him were still slamming their trunks Friday afternoon.

He’s got lots of talent, obviously, but until he proves he can compete on a world stage we can’t be sure if the promise will bear out.

Verdict: Hype… until proven not hype.

Hole Two: An Amateur Has His Day
Another teenager, this one from New Zealand, is making a name for himself even before turning pro. The reigning U.S. Amateur champion just notched a win at the Johnnie Walker Classic in Perth, Australia, last month. The win could have earned him $304,286, but Danny Lee is keeping his amateur status until, at least, the day after the Masters.

Lee became the youngest winner on the European Tour (and fifth youngest on the Asian Tour) at the age of 18 years and 213 days. He’s just the second amateur to win on the European Tour (Spain’s Pablo Martin-Benavides was the first in 2007 at the Estoril Portuguese Open). Lee’s win at the Johnnie Walker Classic (which includes Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, and Greg Norman among its past winners) is an impressive win.

Like Ryo, Lee is very young, but his wins in the U.S. Amateur and Johnnie Walker Classic, as well as contending in the HSBC New Zealand PGA Championship, show that he may have an awesome career ahead of him.

Verdict: Not hype… Cautiously optimistic.

Hole Three: Major-Worthy?
Is this the year that Sergio finally comes through on Sunday at a major? It very well may be. He’s 29 this year, so he may have finally matured to the point where he can realize the potential he’s shown for years. The only thing holding Sergio back is Sergio, and a sometimes balky putter. The putter seemed to be mostly fixed last year, and Sergio may have even come to believe that the golf course is not really out to get him. Last year, he even seemed less inclined to blame everyone and everything else for his losses.

While Garcia has seemed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory several times at majors in the past few years, he has the ball striking to contend at any of the events. Maybe 2009 will be the year.

Verdict: Not hype… But I reserve the right to flip-flop if Sergio starts spitting in cups again.

Hole Four: Return to Glory
This week Golf Channel was running commercials stating that “the monster return continues this week at Doral.” You’d think exiting in the second round of match play might not quite qualify as monster.

Yes, Tiger is the big golf story, and he’ll continue to be the big story for the foreseeable future. That’s fine. But really… when the guy is as good as he is and has accomplished all that he has, why resort to hyperbole when reality itself should be plenty?

Verdict: Hype and not hype… Let’s tone it down a little, but, yeah, he’s that good.

Hole Five: The Paddy Slam
Padraig Harrington has won the last two majors, but he’s opened 2009 looking like anything but major material. He’s made two cuts in four starts on the PGA Tour and has an above par scoring average (almost a point and a half over last year).

Worrysome, yes. Dire foreboding, not quite. I don’t believe that Harrington will complete the Paddy Slam, but he will play more like he did in 2008. As hard as he works at the game, it’s difficult to believe that he’ll continue to struggle.

Verdict: Hype… Paddy winning back-to-back majors was unexpected. His winning all four in a row could surely only happen in Bizarro World. Then again, Harrington has a way of surprising us.

Hole Six: Elite or Not
He has all the talent in the world, but he has not always made the best decisions off the course. I suspect that Anthony Kim is going to win an event, maybe two, a year for the next few years. Not bad at all.

Being a 24-year-old millionaire can be tough, at least on your competitive golf game. When beautiful girls are throwing themselves at you, all the world’s a party. I imagine it might be tough to make four footers in that kind of atmosphere (though I’d be willing to volunteer to try).

Verdict: Not hype… But it will be interesting over the next few years to see if Kim can focus on golf and not let off-course distractions get the best of him. On the PGA Tour, you can play just OK and have a pretty good life.

Hole Seven: Spidey Mania
Speaking of having women treat you like a rock star… Camillo Villegas and his latin gun show have been making girls of all ages breathe a little heavier since he joined the tour. In 2008, Villegas went from “Spiderman: the Sideshow Attraction” to “Spiderman: The Movie.” His feature film-worthy break out in the FedEx Cup made a lot of us wonder if Villegas is ready to contend at majors this year.

Villegas hits the ball a long way, but he might be hampered in the long run by his extreme swing. Injuries could take a toll has the years accumulate for him. So, for Camilo, there may be no time like the present for him to win a major. If he can catch fire the way he did the last two weeks of the 2008 season, who knows what’s possible for him.

Verdict: Not hype… But we’ll be watching closely to see if the sequel is up to snuff.

Hole Eight: Wie Want to Believe
Oh, the trials of Michelle Wie!

The Big Wiesy turns 20 later this year, but she’d sure like to notch an LPGA Tour win or two first and get the winless monkey off her back.

To review, Wie, at age 12, won the Hawaii State Open Women’s Division by thirteen shots over LPGA player Cindy Rarick and qualified for an LPGA event, the Takefuji Classic (where she missed the cut). The next year, she became the youngest player to make an LPGA cut at the 2003 Kraft Nabisco Championship, where she shot 66 in the 3rd round (tying the amateur record for a women’s major championship) and played in the final group with Annika Sörenstam and eventual winner Patricia Meunier-Lebouc.

However, despite some runner-up finishes in majors the next few years, Wie’s last actual win came at the Women’s Amateur Public Links in 2003. That win made her the youngest golfer ever, male or female, to win a USGA adult event, but it also created huge expectations that have thus far gone unrealized.

The last two years marked the low point in Wie’s career with injuries, the pressure of fame, those exemptions to play in PGA Tour events, and questionable decisions by her always hovering father seeming to take a toll. But last fall, Wie earned her LPGA card at qualifying school. It seems to be a step in the right direction for Wie, perhaps the first in quite awhile. In her first LPGA start of the year, Wie finished second at the SBS Open at Turtle Bay (despite leading going into the final round). In a side note, she also failed to win the SBS Open Turtle Race.

Verdict: Not hype… I might be going out on a limb here, but I suspect Wie is going to win sooner rather than later.

Hole Nine: Curls
He hit a 40-yard drive as a two-year-old, made a hole in one when he was nine, and turned pro at age 18. He doesn’t even turn 20 until the week before the Masters (April 5th, the scheduled final round of the Shell Houston Open). Rory McIlroy is scheduled to play both events, and it’s not too far fetched to think that McIlroy might throw his own birthday party by winning at one of the two (probably in Houston, but who knows).

Not since Justin Rose contended as an amateur in the 1998 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale has a European player burst onto the scene with as much fanfare. Unlike Rose, however, Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy is showing signs of realizing his promise sooner rather than later. He is playing at a very high level against the top golfers in the world. His game seems to match is hair… long and well rounded.

Earlier this year, Rory McIlroy notched his first win at the Dubai Desert Classic. He has reached #16 in the world and is currently third on the European Tour’s Race to Dubai standings.

He’s a great young player and by all accounts is a genuinely nice guy. He seems poised to continue his winning ways for some time to come. Only time will tell how good he’ll be, but McIlroy has plenty of it to work with.

Verdict: Not hype… Tons of game and lots of heart will serve Rory well.

Photo Credit: © Riviera Country Club © The Sand Trap .com. All rights reserved. © Toru Yananaka, AFP/Getty Images, © AP Photo/Reed Saxon.