bogie

Furyk is a battler, but it was a fairly rough cup for him. The last Sunday session drubbing the EUROS applied makes it all seem tough. The rain giveth to the Americans on Friday/Saturday and the EURO squad and change of format taketh away. For match-play the trailing player would rather have a tough par 4 that could be won with a par, because on a par 5 players at this level are probably both going to make birdie to halve the hole and eagles are so rare even if the par 5 were to be a short one.

At this point it would require a miracle to overcome session 3. Fowler is toast, and Watson would have to scratch out a half against the plucky hard nosed Jimenez or Mahan having to win the anchor match outright to make it 14 to 14 for the "infamous" retaining the cup.

It's been a nice charge, but seems to be running out of steam as Europe's vice on this cup tightens. Furyk would need to eke out a half by winning the 18th against Donald on a Par 5. Mahan would have to turn around his anchor match and beat McDowell. Valiant but it looks like it's on the Illinois in 2 years.

1 hour and that RyderCup.com projected score hasn't budged, still 16 to 12. That 3 point earned by the EUROS dominance in session 3 including that half point in that last alternate shot match is just so suffocating. Furyk somehow has got to find a way to scratch out a half against Donald. Overton got to win his match and Fowler or Mahan has to either get a come from behind win or both scratch out halves. The European four-ball dominance, oh what an advantage and the one thing U.S. captains haven't figured how to counter that yet.

With the current deficit, slots 5 to 8 as of 7:06 am is going to do the U.S. chances. Multiple 2 downs with the rookies struggling (like the EURO rookies did in 1997 Valderrama) and Woods in his singles match. In 2008 the U.S. Rookies carried the day with Kim, Mahan, Weekley, Holmes, Stricker and Curtis. Stricker made the Cup team as a captain and contributed in the team sessions but lost in singles. A relative "rookie" in his 40s. Weekley is a good iron player in his 30s with a relaxed attitude in the room playing well that year but it may have been his only Ryder Cup appearance. Curtis is also in his 30s and made the team late based on his PGA Championship performance and that may have been his only Cup appearance. Both won their singles matches, with Boo putting on a clinic in the heat of the victory and Curtis tacking on a the end after the clinching. After separating Stricker and perhaps 2 "one-off" members, 2.5 critical singles points were earned by: JB Holmes who did a great job in his singles match and took advantage of the home team course set-up. Almost made the team this time, may get 1 more cup cap in his career. Mahan whose not as flashy as Kim nor have the huge game as D. Johhnson, but will be a cup stalwart for years to come because at his best he a superb iron player, solid putter and aggressive by nature. (Lanny Wadkins possessed much of those qualities when he was clearly the best American matchplay man in the 80s) As for Kim it's too bad how his season went for him and this U.S. squad. Kim at his best makes birdies in buckets and has a swagger and enthusiasm that seems to fit matchplay. But the EUROS were missing key components in 2008 due to injury too. Just a little analysis/trip down memory lane about 2008 vs this year.

Europe leads 9.5 to 6.5 Europe needs 5 points to win cup U.S. needs 7.5 points to retain cup. Besides the unlikely comeback at Brookline 1999, the biggest deficit overcome is 2 points at Oak Hill 1995. Considering the way the American played the third session it seems unlikely they will run the table. However 7-4-1 has been done multiple times before by teams by both sides. Here is my hypothetical US singles order: 1. Z. Johnson, 2. Overton, 3. Mahan, 4. Mickleson | 5. Furyk, 6. Fowler, 7. Woods, 8. Cink | 9. D. Johnson, 10. Stricker, 11. Watson, 12. Kuchar. Here is my hypothetical EURO order 1. Westwood, 2. McIlroy, 3. P. Hanson, 4. Kaymer | 5. R. Fisher, 6. Donald, 7. McDowell, 8. Poulter, 9. Harrington, 10. E. Molinari, 11. F. Molinari, 12. Jimenez Off the tee and in the short game the EUROS outplayed the American in session 3. As for the slow greens that was to be expected, and mentioned in the very first post in this thread. Exactly how slow I don't know but it's anywhere from 7 to 9.5 on the stimpmeter. I hope for what Johnny Miller called a mini-miracle, but it looks like it's on to Illinois in 2 years. Who will be the U.S. captain then?

If the American can rally and make the final team session score 8 to 8 then here is my hypothetical singles order for Europe (based on past European captain practices.) 1. Westwood, 2. McIlroy, 3. E. Molinari. 4. Kaymer 5. R. Fisher, 6. Poulter, 7. McDowell, 8. Donald 9. Jimenez, 10. Harrington, 11. F. Molinari, 12. P. Hanson General Tendencies * European captains tend to front-load with their top ranked players. * Most matches are clinched in slots 7 - 10. It used to be unheralded players for the EUROS clinched cups when they won. Today you can see the depth of the EUROS in slots 6 - 8. * European captains tend to put their least experienced or lowest ranked players in the last two slots. * European captains tend to intersperse two more of the lower ranked players in the first two quartets. (In my hypothetical I used Kaymer in slot 4 to separate E. Molinari from Fisher.) * In my hypothetical that left Harrington and Jimenez. To paraphrase Captain Montgomerie he said if the cup were on the line he'd be confident with Harrington putting for it, so I have the Irishman potentially closing the deal before the 2 rookies. Hypothetical US singles order (based on POD system and "odd # pressure points" 1. Mickleson, 2. Overton, 3. Mahan, 4. Z. Johnson 5. Furyk, 6. Watson, 7. Woods, 8. Fowler 9. Cink, 10. D. Johnson, 11. Kuchar, 12. Stricker In the first quartet one hears either the words front-loading or aggressive. * Mickleson has struggled but hopefully the leadoff spot and anticipating taking on one of Europe's best would get him going. * Overton's aggression and good play in the matches so far has earned him a chance to go out early. * Mahan sits in the third spot. * Z. Johnson is out fourth as a steady, no-frills scrapper to anchor this aggressive pod. In the second quartet Azinger went with those who can influence or be influenced. Here's where I tweaked it as opposed to 2008. * Woods is in slot 7 because if singles turns out to be razor close, this match on an odd number is historically a swing match. It may take him some time to start winning majors again but I'd still take my chances on him in a singles match-play situation. * Furyk is in slot 5 to separate Z. Johnson from B. Watson. Just placing a grinder to hopefully set the tone for this quartet. * Fowler is in slot 8 because he showed bounce back ability from his error in the alternate shot match and his previous success at the Walker Cup. The last quartet Azinger went with the steady players. Basically the last 2 players though were the least effective for the Americans in 2008. But my hypothetical also slightly tweaks this. *Cink is in slot 9 the same as 2008. This is a spot that has clinched cups before, and his play thus far has earned him this responsibility. * Stricker is in the anchor spot because his strength is putting. The two rare times it has come done to the anchor match (1983 and 1991) came down to the flat stick. * Kuchar is in slot 11 where Ben Curtis was in 2008. * Finally I went with D. Johnson in slot 10. In my hypothetical the choice came down to him and Z. Johnson. Z. Johnson ended up in the first quartet because I just wanted more experience and a dash of grit up front. Comments: The head-to-head pitting at the President's Cup is fun because relative strength and pedigree are matched up against one another. However the blind draw at the Ryder Cup requires a different strategy based on momentum and "pressure points." It also results in some match-ups which in the past that has ended with surprising results.

First, the bad news for the US squad: European leads in all 6 matches with Stricker/Woods & Z. Johnson/Mahan getting their doors blown off. The good news for the US squad is: the sun wet down. Basically the American's chances rest with Furyk/D. Johnson (1 down thru 8) and Cink/Kuchar (1 down thru 5) to turn those blue EURO flags to RED. If that were to happen the score going into singles would then be: US 8, EURO 8. At that point: Europe would needs 6.5 points to win the cup. US would needs 6 points to retain the cup From an objective point of view that's why the Ryder Cup is so exciting with its swings of fortune. The EUROS threatened to blast through 4-balls on Friday morning when that rain delay seem to cool them off and allowed the American to get their equilibrium. The American continued their good play in the Alternate Shot session this morning. But the same rain that apparently gave to the Americans, along with the stellar play of the EUROS has taken it back. Remember originally it was 4-Ball, Alt. Shot; 4-Ball Alt. Shot. With the format change the EUROS got a chance to end on their 4-ball strength and their play is backing it up. So it's back to the American team room for a team meeting to clear the air about what's going on. Hopefully those two pairs I mentioned have a good meal and good night of sleep and tomorrow turn it around to ensure an exciting singles session. Because that projected score on Ryder Cup.com which now reads EURO 10, US 6 especially after how things started is a whopping downer.

For the insomniacs RyderCup.com says: Play will resume at 8:00 a.m. BST (3:00 a.m. ET) If you can’t get enough chatter, the hour or half-hour of coverage on ESPN will be more pre-game talk. NEWPORT, Wales -- In view of the adverse weather conditions today, and the 7 hours, 18 minutes of playing time lost, a new playing schedule has been agreed to for the second and third sessions: --The 2nd session will comprise six foursome matches. --The 3rd session will comprise 2 foursome and 4 fourball matches. --This will be followed by the 12 singles matches. Comment: As for strategy-- Everybody is playing all the time now. No more judgment calls about whom to sit & hide or give a break to. Not unlike the President’s Cup way of doing things. This means everybody whom played Friday morning will play all 4 team sessions. To quote Azinger again, players who play all 4 team sessions lose their singles match 75% of the time. This could lead to some scrambly matches on Sunday. The strategy of pairings and possibly changing the match-ups before the first tee ball is struck based upon the other team announced line-up still applies. Session 2: 6 alternate shot matches (after completion of “Friday Four-Ball”) This list of actual pairings is based on the line-ups used so far in game and practices. Who would get pitted against each other is my hypothetical. (Pairs listed in alphabetical order) Cink/Kuchar vs. E & F Molinari Fowler/Furyk vs. R. Fisher/Poulter D. Johnson/Mickleson vs. McDowell/McIlroy Stricker/Woods vs. Kaymer/Westwood Z. Johnson/Mahan vs. Harrington/Donald Overton/B. Watson vs. P. Hanson/Jimenez Session 3: 2 Alternate Shot + Four 4-Ball matches (begins Saturday afternoon and completes on Sunday morning.) Z. Johnson/Mahan vs. Hanson/Jimenez Cink/Furyk vs. E & F Molinari Fowler/Kuchar vs. Fisher/Harrington D. Johnson/Mickleson vs. McDowell/McIlroy Overton/B. Watson vs. Donald/Poulter Stricker/Woods vs. Kaymer/Westwood

Note: Ryder Cup officials issued this statement shortly before play was halted for the day on Friday: NEWPORT, Wales -- In view of the adverse weather conditions today, and the 7 hours, 18 minutes of playing time lost, a new playing schedule has been agreed to for the second and third sessions: --The 2nd session will comprise six foursome matches. --The 3rd session will comprise 2 foursome and 4 fourball matches. --This will be followed by the 12 singles matches. This means there will still be a total of 28 points available, of which 8 will be decided by foursomes and 8 by foursomes, and it is hoped that play will be completed by Sunday afternoon as scheduled. If necessary, play will continue into Monday. This new format will commence Saturday, likely after the first session is completed. More thoughts about these changes and the possible impact on this match to come later this evening.

http://www.thegolfchannel.com/shag-bag/ RANDALL MELL, Senior Writer, GolfChannel.com Posted 10/01/2010, 11:15 AM EST NEWPORT, Wales – Ryder Cup play is scheduled to resume at 5 p.m. local time (noon, ET) today at Celtic Manor. With the 7-hour and 15-minute suspension of play due to rain, the Ryder Cup almost certainly will be pushed into Monday, though Ryder Cup officials have yet to actually confirm that. No matter how much rain continues to fall, the Ryder Cup must end no later than sunset on Monday (6:43 p.m.) by captain’s agreement. Any matches that have not been completed at that time will be declared halved. The score at that time will be recorded as the final result. “There has to be a moment that you must end,” European Tour Director of Communications Gordon Simpson said. “We have another tournament next week, the Dunhill Links, and players have commitments. The decision was that the moment it must end is Monday at sunset.” This statement raises a lot of issues: (Given there is more rain in the forecast, and possibly more standing water on the way, which would really bring this lovely scenario into play) Saturday Morning With one hour and 15 minutes left of play left today the Friday opening match will restart at the 12th hole. Start at dawn (7:15) each day, which is 30 minutes earlier than today's tee time (7:45). Taking into account not all matches end at 18, the completion of today's matches optimistically will end at 9:30 am So the first tee shot in "Friday" alternate shot would be struck at 10:00 am. Alternate shot is only 1 ball per side and again not all matches end up at 18. So say optimistically 4-hour rounds. Therefore the respective tee times would be: 10, 10:15, 10:30, 11:45. Building in some leeway time the last match would end at approximately 4:15. The Saturday 4-ball matches would start at 4:30. That would give them 2 hours and 15 minutes worth of play, which is roughly 8 or 9 holes of play. Sunday morning Let's say the first "Saturday" first ball match restarts at the 10th hole, so again hopefully the completion of the 4-ball would be at 9:30 am Then the same tee times for the alternate shot would take place and end at 4:15 pm. (This whole happy scenario is contingent upon no more lengthy delays thereby making a Monday finish possible.) But: As it stands, assuming my math is correct: They only have 2 hours and 30 minutes left of rain delay to play with. With more heavy rain being forecast to quote baseball Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, "It gets late early out here" Also, say they have good weather the next 2 days and get the team sessions completed. They start the singles matches on Monday, which goes 8 or 9 holes. Then it pours for hours. The tournament officials are telling the players, fans and networks that if the matches can't be done by sundown Monday all the singles matches will be declared halved? Under this hypothetical, the Dunhill Links and player commitments would be more important than the Ryder Cup? On the bright side this delay (barring anymore lengthy delays) means live coverage of team matches assuming NBC gets it right.

Two quotes: 1 by are recent U.S. Captain and 1 by a future EURO captain. "Anybody who doesn't feel his legs tremble must be a dead man."--Jose Maria Olazabal "...You should look at the opponent you're playing and say to yourself on that first tee, I just don't want him to celebrate at my expense."--Paul Azinger

Weather Forecast http://www.myweather2.com/Golf-Cours...or-Resort.aspx Media Links http://www.rydercup.com/2010/usa/mul...live_video.cfm http://www.rydercup.com/2010/usa/ http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/golf/6103550.stm http://www.thegolfchannel.com/ 7:45 AM -- Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson (USA) vs. Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer (EUR) 8:00 AM -- Stewart Cink and Matt Kuchar (USA) vs. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell (EUR) 8:15 AM -- Steve Stricker and Tiger Woods (USA) vs. Ian Poulter and Ross Fisher (EUR) 8:30 AM -- Bubba Watson and Jeff Overton (USA) vs. Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington (EUR) “Each Team Captain independently submits the order of play for his Team to the appointed tournament official. The lists from each Captain are matched, resulting in the ‘Pairings’. Please note that the Team Captains can modify the players in pairings only if a player is ill or injured. Pairings are subject to change and should not be considered final until play begins for a particular match.” US 4-ball pairings: *1st three pairings exactly as practice rounds went. * Overton/Watson is an eye-raiser. Based on personality I wouldn’t have paired them together. On paper certainly Donald & Harrington have the pedigree, but Harrington has been up & down this season and Donald’s been scoring his ball well but spraying his tee shots. My guess this match is going to ebb back and forth and come down to the last 2 holes. * The press has criticized Pavin for opening with 4 rookies including pairing 2 together. The 4 rookies part is no problem as multiple rookies have played substantial roles for Europe in 1997 and the U.S. in 2006. * If I were Pavin: I’d change the order by moving D. Johnson/Mickleson down to the 2 spot and move Cink/Kuchar up to the 1 spot. * Reason: Kaymer/Westwood while long enough off the tee are at their best grinding you down with their iron game. In my scenario the U.S. could hope Westwood is off slightly and maybe the steadiness of Cink/Kuchar could eke out a tie late. * D. Johnson/Mickleson can be wild, but so can McIlroy. McDowell is obviously the reliable player of the 4. In general, my scenario would be pitting streaky with streaky, trading birdies and bogies equally. From a non-strategy standpoint, pure fan point of view D. Johnson and McIlroy trading shots could be very exciting. European 4-ball pairings * 2 pairings exactly as announced and practices went. * It’s a small surprise that Donald and Poulter aren’t together. Donald seems to fit in anywhere so maybe Fisher/Poulter have history together at some point? * If I were Montogmerie: I’d change the order and move Fisher/Poulter up to the 1 slot and have Kaymer/Westwood move down to the 3 slot. Reasons: Woods is struggling with his swing, Stricker's putter has gone cool that last few weeks. Kaymer and Westwood are in form, so go for the jugular. Every point is equal, but the psychological boost from beating a Woods pairing always infuses confidence in the EUROS and revs up Ole, Ole Oles from the crowd. Alternate Shot implications US: Z. Johnson/Mahan Fowler/Furyk EU: E & F Molinari Jimenez/Hanson Best played match (as set-up right now): #1. Swing match (as set up-right now): #4. Additional comments: No Mahan in the morning. *My belief its best to get everybody involved on Day 1. * From a personality standpoint, most players are amped up. But Mahan not having the possibility of playing all 4 times could be an unintentional burr in his saddle to propel him to success in these matches. * In “Cracking the Code” Azinger said that of all players who do all 4 team sessions lose their singles match 75% of the time. (I haven’t confirmed this.) A fresher Mahan & Furyk could be a big boost for the American cause on Sunday. *All these positive “ifs” are great only if a 2-2 tie happens in the morning. Unfortunately for Pavin, the EUROS have made it a habit of steamrolling the Americans in morning 4-balls. Conclusion Game on! All the pre-game chatter (including my blather is over) and the answers will be revealed on the course. To all those who have been reading my posts, enjoy the matches and hopefully the result will still be in the balance late on Sunday. What I hope will happen: US 14.5 to EU 13.5 Prediction: EU 15 to US 13

http://www.thegolfchannel.com/human-...?select2=14501 Source: The Golf Channel piece on pairings.

http://www.rydercup.com/2010/usa/sco...h_schedule.cfm 7:45 AM -- Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson (USA) vs. Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer (EUR) 8:00 AM -- Stewart Cink and Matt Kuchar (USA) vs. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell (EUR) 8:15 AM -- Steve Stricker and Tiger Woods (USA) vs. Ian Poulter and Ross Fisher (EUR) 8:30 AM -- Bubba Watson and Jeff Overton (USA) vs. Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington (EUR) "Each Team Captain independently submits the order of play for his Team to the appointed tournament official. The lists from each Captain are matched, resulting in the "Pairings". Please note that the players in pairings can be modified by the Team Captains only if a player is ill or injured. Pairings are subject to change and should not be considered final until play begins for a particular match." My comments on these pairings and match-ups will be posted later today.

Before the official announcement of the pairings, here are my guesses. What Pavin will do. (Based on press reports about practice pairings) 4-ball Woods/Stricker Mickleson/Fowler Furyk/Overton D. Johnson/B. Watson Alt. Shot Z. Johnson/Mahan Cink/Kuchar (If it were up to me, LOL ) US Pairings 4-ball Woods/Fowler: Personality sketch: both aggressive. Comment: Fowler seems to carry himself with a bit of a swagger and not the top to be a “bystander” waiting for Woods to do something. Woods has currently lost his intimidation factor, but solidly play by Fowler could infuse some enthusiasm into Woods. Actual: My hypothetical pair has not practiced together this week. Mickelson/D. Johnson: Personality sketch: Mickleson’s aggressive, D. Johnson’s steady. Comment: Of all the U.S. players, D. Johnson is most in form and could carry the bulk of the load if Mickleson struggles. Actual: Mickleson and D. Johnson have practiced together a lot this week. Furyk/B. Watson: Personality sketch: Furyk influencer, Watson influencer Comment: Watson is both an emotional and humorous sort who could rub off on others positively--or when things go badly get down on himself. Furyk was a positive influencer in 2008 with Kenny Perry and would be reprising that role here with Bubba. Actual: My hypothetical pair hasn’t practiced together this week. Z. Johnson/Mahan Personality sketch: Z. Johnson’s steady, Mahan’s aggressive Comment: When I started thinking about pairings, this was the most obvious one. Essentially Z. Johnson’s game is stylistically similar to Justin Leonard’s. Leonard and Mahan made an effective pair in 2008. I would go with them in the morning 4-ball. But if Pavin does go with Furyk/Overton it’s understandable why Z. Johnson/Mahan would go out in the afternoon. The hope would be the feisty Overton catching 4-ball birdie fire and ride it. Alt. Shot Kuchar/Stricker Personality sketch: Both steady. Driving distance avg: Both apx: (280 – 284 yrds) Comment: They supposedly two of two nicer, more laid back guys on tour who drive the ball roughly the same difference. Take a look at their most recent results, which coincidentally have also been quite similar: Kuchar: NJ W (-12); MA T11 (-10); IL T3 (-6); GA T25 (+5) Stricker: NJ T3 (-10); MA 9th (-13); IL T8 (-4); GA T25 (+5) Actual: My hypothetical pair hasn’t practiced together this week. Cink/Overton Personality sketch: Cink’s steady, Overton’s aggressive. Driving distance avg: Cink (apx 285-289 yrds); Overton (290+ yrds) Comment: Cink is the calming influence that many recent U.S. captains have called upon from him plus the fact Cink rarely shoots himself completely out of a round. Overton’s game has been ice-cold coming into the Ryder Cup. This pairing is mostly personality driven, and hopefully these two could grind out a competitive match. Actual: My hypothetical pair hasn’t practiced together this week. Cink’s personality however lends itself to him being paired with just about anybody else on the team so it’s not impossible for these two to be thrown together at some point. It’s logical to play Overton in the morning, whose game seems to fit the 4-ball format better. It’s just the Europeans have jumped the U.S. early and often in this format in 2002 and 2006. It would be my preference to hopefully stabilize things in the morning and hopefully eke out 2 points before inserting Overton into the lineup in the afternoon.

These posts are just my take on the lead-up to the Ryder Cup grounded in statistics and Captain Azinger's take about 2008 in his book. Nothing abnormal or nefarious is going on with course set-up, that's all part of the matches and is the home team's right. However, how the course set-up and much of the European team members' familiarity with this course and its impact on the results this week remains to be seen. In 1997, the American's never made the adjustments to Ballesteros' tactics and it was a competitive edge that allowed to EUROS to build a substantial lead in the team sessions. I'm rooting for the U.S. team, so I hope they are able to successfully make the adjustments on the fly. That's all part of being a road team and nothing would be sweeter than to hear a silent EURO crowd on Sunday. What's clear is the U.S. team hasn't won in Europe since 1993. In 1997 at Valderrama, the American's almost made a miracle comeback in singles. In 2002 at the Belfry Captain Torrance's front-loading in singles worked successfully as Strange held his big guns toward the end. 2006 was a EURO whipping on the American team. To me, it’s clearest those edges in 1997 that Ballesteros’ set-up was a significant factor in that win. How much of a factor it was in 2002, one would have to ask Torrance.

“There are two ways of widening the gap between a good tee shot and a bad one... The other is to reward the good shot by making the second shot simpler in proportion to the excellence of the first. But the elimination of purely punitive hazards provides an opportunity for the player to retrieve his situation by an exceptional second shot." --Bobby Jones From "Golf is my game." It certainly makes the long hitters think. (It’s fashionable these days for architects to say... length should be it’s own reward.) Bull! If I hit it 3 degrees off line and Fred Couples hits it 3 degrees off line, his ball will end up farther off line than mine. Why put trouble in such an area? Because Couples shouldn’t be hitting any shot three degrees off line. He’s a professional. We should demand that he be more accurate. --Rod Whitten (golf course architect) From Feb. 2000 feature at Golfclubatlas.com

http://www.europeantour.com/European...032/index.html Celtic Manor tournament home page, with virtual graphics tour of course. http://www.europeantour.com/european...ard/index.html Hole averages

Course set up continued. In Kentucky it was Valhalla's club superintendent Mark Wilson. In Wales it's Jim McKenzie--Celtic Manor's director of course management. In Steve Eubanks piece for Rydercup.com, McKenzie confirmed my earlier guesstimates about how the course is set up: "There’s no way we can have green speeds in Wales in October anywhere close to what it was at Valhalla in September (of 2008)." [my guess the stimp is going to run at 9.5] “It would favor someone of prodigious length but it must be straight. That would mean using two or three clubs less than your opponent, you would then have a big advantage.” “Montgomerie set the golf course up pretty much as it has been for the last three Wales Opens.” [except the intermediate cut has been eliminated for primary rough--my guess it started the week at 4 in.] According to the venue info the course set-up in June was as follows: Stimp: 10.5 Rough (3 cuts) semi: 1.1 in., intermediate 2.2 in. and primary rough 3.5 in. Course generally quite flat, elevation change on hole 15 - 18. Water hazards on 10 holes. Whom the course favors? Here are the stats for the last 3 winners at Celtic Manor: 2010 G. McDowell (-15) Fairways hit 71.2% (11th); Driving Dis. 283 yrds (36th); GIR 83.3% (1); Putts/GIR 1.69 (10th); Sand Saves: 50% 2009 J. Huldhal FH 55.8% (78th); Dis 273.9 (85th); GIR 70.8 (23rd); Putts/GIR 1.66 (8); Sand Svs: 57.1% 2008 S. Strange FH 75% (35th); Dis 275.8 (68th); GIR 80.6 (11th); Putts/GIR 1.61 (1); Sand Svs. 100% The basic differences are these stats are from a stroke play tournament, during a warm and dry week of play. Still it seems that besides good putting (always a given) what the last 3 winners had in common is strong iron play, as none of them are bombers off the tee. Additional results of EUROS at Celtic Manor 2010: 3rd Donald (-10); T4 E. Molinari (-9); 8th Jimenez (-7); T12 Kaymer (-4); R. Fisher (Cut) 2008: T4 F. Molinari (-13); T10 R. Fisher (-11); 21st Kaymer (-9); E. Molinari T31 (-7); Harrington (Cut) Also while not exactly the same course, Poulter won here in 2002 and Jimenez in 2005. As for possible pin positions, I'm sure one of the U.S. assistant captains well before this week watched Sky Sports footage of the last 3 Wales Open.

Note: I forgot to cite the sources that I based the original post on which are: Pgatour.com, Europeantour.com, Rydercyp.com and "Cracking the Code" by Azinger and Braund.

"Dustin Johnson, as long as anyone at the Ryder Cup, only hit driver off the tee on the par 5s during his practice round Tuesday. As for the rough, he described it as so deep that anything more than a 6-iron away, he would not be able to get it on the green." (AP) My guess is the fairway width maybe 35 to 40 yrds wide but the rough is 3.5 to 4 inches high with negligible first cut. This affects B. Watson, Woods, D. Johnson and Mickleson for U.S. For the EUROS this affects McIlroy, Westwood and R. Fisher. Unless the long hitters are supremely confident and striking the ball arrow straight, Montgomerie has handcuffed these seven players and placed them on equal footing with the mid-length hitters. This means 15 to 25 yards less distance off the tee for the long hitters and at least 2.5 club lengths more from the fairway in average conditions. With rain decreasing roll and when the wind kicks up, the course is going to play long. Approach shots will go from mid-irons to long-irons. In sum, it means there's a good chance for lots of 3-hybrids and 4-irons being used this week.

On the European tour the stimp reading for most tournaments averages: 10, 10.2, and maxes at 10.5 ft. The speed is controlled to allow for high winds and helping the ball hold the greens. Stimp on courses in the U.S. run from 7 to 9 on many U.S. golf courses private and municipal. Lower stimp means taller, healthier and easier to maintain grass. Even though it's not officially listed, British Open stimp at links courses like St. Andrews, Muirfield and St. George is kept at 9 to 10 to allow for wind and slope of those courses greens. So my guess is that Montgomerie will keep the stimp on the slow side at 10 or even 9.5 ft, not only because of the wind but it's what the EURO team is accustomed to and the U.S. side isn't. A word about the rough the tallest rough ht for a European Tour event is about 4 inches. So I've increased my guess on the rough for this week to 3.5 or 4 inches. Links about slope http://golfclubatlas.com/feature-interview/bob-harrison http://www.usga.org/course_care/arti...tion-Booklet/# http://www.gcsaa.org/gcm/2001/mar01/03golfers.html http://turf.lib.msu.edu/1980s/1983/830316.pdf http://www.popeofslope.com/magazine/hannigan.html

EURO captain Colin Montgomerie at his Monday press conference said he "hasn't played around with the course at all." We'll see about that in a few days. Course set-up Fairway width: In 2002 @ Belfry the EUROS narrowed the fairways starting at the 290 yard mark to negate the U.S. long hitters. Will Montgomerie have this mark at just 24-yards wide this time, while having the 270 - 280 yard at say 40 yards wide? Euros avg. driving distance (yards): 290+: McIlroy, Westwood, Fisher; 285-289: Harrington, Kaymer; 280-284: McDowell, Hanson, E. Molinari; 275-279: Poulter, Jimenez, Fr. Molinari; 270-274: Donald. U.S. avg. driving distance: 290+: B.Watson, Woods, D. Johnson, Mickleson; 285-289: Mahan, Fowler, Cink, Overton; 280-284: Kuchar, Stricker; 275-279: Furyk; 270-274: Z. Johnson. During the practice sections, especially the U.S. long hitters might work on their 3-woods off the tee and the resulting longer iron-approach shots in preparation for this tactic. Rough ht: The primary cut is probably going to be 3+ in. Will Montgomerie have allowed for some semi-rough or will it be negligible? Collars/aprons: From the pictures it looks like many green sites surrounds are short grass which brings chipping into play. Another thing for the U.S. team to work during the practice rounds is their short game: chipping, bump & runs, flop shots. Putting surfaces: It seems likely Montgomerie will have the greens running on the slower side--stimp listed at 10 ft and more likely playing at 9. The U.S. players whom experience faster greens on the PGA tour at 11.5 or 12 will have to make the adjustment quickly, having to be conscious of pace on their putts. Par 3s: The par 3 distances and hole locations will probably be set to favored yardages and ball flights of the EUROS. The U.S. team will have to try to scout the par 3s and take an educated guess where the pin positions are likely to be and work on their fades and draws into these holes. Miscellaneous notes * Historically the EUROS have had the decisive advantage in 4-ball. For instance during Seve Ballesteros' prime years (1983-1991) over 40 matches in 2 formats: 4-ball EU lead US: 24-12-4. Alternate shot EU trailed US: 16-19-5. The Euro's substantial edge in 4-ball has consistently held throughout the 90s all the way up to 2006. It's why Captain Paul Azinger opened the morning session with alternate shot in 2008 at Valhalla and why Montgomerie has switched back to 4-ball morning sessions this time. Why have the Euros so completely dominated 4-ball? When the U.S. is at home it would make sense to start Friday with alternate shot then 4-Ball and Saturday open with 4-ball then close alternate shot; and vice versa applies when the Euros are at home. * Ryder Cup Rookie Highlights-Olazabal 1987: 3 points. Rafferty 1989: beat Calcavecchia in singles match. Love 1993: beat Rocca in singles match. Walton 1995: beat Haas in singles match. Mickleson 1995 3-0. Europe 1997: 5 rookies all chipped into building the big lead during the team sessions and where Euros hung on in singles to win. Garcia 1999: 3.5 pts. Donald 2004: 2.5 pts. 2008: 6 US rookies contribute to first US win in 9 years. * Since 1983 to 2008, 7 out of 12 times the leader after Day 1 wins. There have been 5 comeback wins after day 2: 3 by 1 point; 1 by 2 points: EU 1994 Oak Hill; 1 by 4 points US 1999 Brookline.

Q. What defines a good Ryder Cup player and what are some of the things tangible and intangible that you look for in making those final selections? PAVIN: Well, what was important to me is who I thought could play well in that environment over in Wales on European soil. Obviously I like guys that are playing well. I wanted to find guys that round off the team. Q. Did anyone play their way in or play their way out with last week's results? PAVIN: I don't think a lot of things changed last week to be honest with you. I watched a lot of golf before that, but I didn't see much there to change. Q. If you had another week or two, do you think it would have made a difference? PAVIN: It's a hypothetical question which I don't like to answer, but you could look at from the PGA on, there was a lot that happened. Today was the deadline. Q. What are the things that you will concentrate on or deal with from now until that first tee shot on October 1? PAVIN: Obviously pairings is a huge thing. It's not going to guarantee that they are going to be playing with that person, but I want them to have a short list of guys that they can communicate with, talk with, understand and get to know better if they need to. Source: RyderCup.com My reaction: Rickie Fowler: Best finishes: 2nd Phoenix, Memorial. Stats: Driving distance 292.8, GIR 69.38 (19th), Putting 1.792 (109th), Birdie Avg: 3.40 (114th), Scoring avg: 70.62 (55th), Scrambling: 58.19. 19. JB Holmes: My guess is it came down to between Holmes and Fowler. Holmes results from the PGA on (T-24, Cut, T-11) are better than Fowler's (58, 36, 41). Holmes was a contributing part to the 2008 win. My guess is Pavin felt Holmes was not a "road" player who the last time benefited from playing in his home state and that Montgomerie was going to grow rough as high as an Iowa wheat field. 9. Anthony Kim: Kim fit 2 of the 3 qualities that Pavin said he was looking for, but those 4 missed cuts after returning from injury legitimately sunk his chances. If he had one good to 5 or even top 10 he probably would've made it. Hopefully 2012 Kim will be there, but his enthusiasm and scrambling ability will be missed in Wales. 21. Ryan Palmer: By the third criteria I can only guess Palmer fits. Of all the captain's pick candidates by the second criteria of playing well he fit best: 2nd Firestone, T-33 PGA, T-5 Ridgewood, T-11 Boston. He probably didn't fit the first of handling the "road" whereas Fowler played well at County Down during the Walker Cup. Holmes or Palmer needed a top 3 since the PGA to strengthen the position of getting a pick and neither player quite reached that level. Woods is Woods. Cink is a good guy in the locker room, who doesn't have an intimidating game, but he'll rarely shoot your side out of alternate shot match. Z. Johnson 3rd at the PGA and subsequent steady play made him perhaps the easiest pick of the quartet. Palmer had stats but not the reputation while Kim had the rep but not the stats. To me if any of the players had an argument over Pavin's hunch pick in Fowler, it would be JB Holmes. Holmes had good stats, but like Fowler had no wins in 2010. So the tie-break was Fowler's Walker Cup record. Trying to read Pavin's mind--if it came down to those two, the choice was a hair-split. In the end Pavin's choices while highly anticipated, to me ended up having little controversy attached.