Here's a good explanation of why shooting under your handicap is unlikely to happen. Sandbaggers are those guys who can shoot several once in a lifetime rounds a year, usually during a tournament. If you've earned the name, wear it.
I'm a regular 8-10 handicapper (currently 9.1) on a course rated 72.7 and a slope of 123. I've got 21 rounds in this year and scores range from 83 - 86, with one 89 and a low score of 81. I will shoot 1 - 3 rounds of 78 or 79 in a year.
WHY IS IT that we so rarely play to our single-digit handicaps or that some of those 14-handicappers often play a lot better than we think they should? We asked Contributing Editor and golf handicap expert Dean Knuth for some explanations and mathematical possibilities when it comes to playing to "your number."
Q: How often should I play to--or beat--my handicap?
Knuth: If it's accurate, you should average about three shots above your handicap. For example, a player with a course handicap of 16 on a course with a rating of 71.1 should score on average about 90. The USGA handicap system is based on 96 percent of the best 10 of a golfer's last 20 rounds, not simply average score.
Scores normally fit into the classic bell-shaped curve. More than half of your scores should be within three strokes of three over your handicap. In other words, taking our 16-handicapper, more than half of the rounds should be between 87 and 93. The player will better the handicap--shooting 87 or lower--only about 20 percent of the time, or once every five rounds. Golfers should only beat their handicap by three strokes one out of every 20 rounds.
Q: What are the odds of that 16-handicapper breaking 80?
Knuth: The odds of someone beating their handicap--if it's an honest handicap--by eight strokes are 1,138 to 1. For most players that represents about 54 years of golf--a lifetime for many. The odds of beating your number by eight strokes twice are 14,912 to 1, or 710 years of golf.