The fact of the matter is that so many other factors come into play, it was far from a guarantee that he would win the slam. I agree that he is "due" at Augusta, but since they have added a lot of trees, and put a greater premium on driving accuracy, Augusta is no longer Tiger's personal playground. However, even with all of this going on, he still may come back, play a tournament or two before Augusta, and win. That is just what he does.
As far as the U.S. Open as Pebble Beach, I think it would be asinine to say that he would not be a heavy favorite. I mean, he won by 15 last time! Now, do I think he would lap the field again? Not really, but he is a heavy favorite if he decides to play.
St. Andrews is Tiger's favorite golf course. I think that if he plays there, he will win. I think going over to St. Andrews allows Tiger to completely get away from all distractions, and just play golf. However, nothing is a sure thing, so we can't assume that he will automatically win there as well.
Tiger loves the PGA championship and has won it 4 times. I would say that if he plays, he has a good chance (As always).
If Tiger plays in all four majors this year, I do not think that recent problems will have a profound impact on his success. I was picking him to win 2 out of 4 before the problems, and I still think he will come back and win the U.S. Open and British Open.